During last night's abomination against Chris Paul and the Hornets not a single sixer put up a positive +/-.
Thats not good.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Thugged Out Book Clubs vol. 1
Fantastic news everybody, Baron Davis started a self-described "thugged out" book club to teach leadership to the warriors :
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/01/SPFVT437M.DTL
for a philadelphia site, we sure are obsessed with Golden State
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/01/SPFVT437M.DTL
for a philadelphia site, we sure are obsessed with Golden State
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Check in on 5
So last weekend I went through the trouble of making picks based on my own pre-guessed betting lines, wrote about half of them up and put research into them all. Due to my abysmal picks record thus far I felt a need to change up my method a little bit (even if it means I'm focusing more on gambling, which I don't care about, and less on football – which I do). Anyway, for this week I looked over the game and pre-set what I thought the vegas line would end up being and then made my picks based on a discrepancy between those two.
However, none of this mattered, seeing as Friday morning I visited the black hole that is Kenyon College to celebrate Nick’s birthday. Me and the team began the weekend with drinks when I arrived at 5:30 a.m. Shockingly, I never got around to posting the picks.
If you’re curious about how they turned out the basic guess was this: For eight of the thirteen games my line was +/- 1 point of the actual spread, and my record in the games where my personal line was decent but not fantastic enough to establish a theory.
What has changed since then is that, several obvious big stories aside (ex. The Pats run, Adrian Peterson, the Pack being improbably good, the Chargers possible turnaround, etc), my interest in the league as a whole began to waver.
Nova started their season by waxing some nobody (although with the OSU and Kentucky losses nobodies are looking more and more formidable) and looked sick doing it. The Sixers, although a joke, are my joke, and expectations aside I’m excited to watch the dynamic frontline of Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans take the court.
But before I move on the land of milk and guardplay, I’m going to backtrack to everyone’s favorite stomping ground, namely our QB1, Donovan McNabb.
I have the belief that scandal is widespread across sports, regardless of the game being played. I also believe that generally, these scandals don’t affect the team in question at all, because if the team is winning or on the rise, who cares about a peripheral scandal? Fans are already getting the all information they need to keep their attention, and players can generally handle their own.
If the Eagles are winning the story doesn’t have to be “what’s wrong” because Eagles fans across the area are tuning in to hear about what’s right. It doesn’t matter if a player is upset with his playing time if that player is performing on the field. Those old St. Johns’ teams would get into fistfights in the locker-room before games (true story) but we only heard about them years later because that team was good – no need to focus on the bad to make fans look when fans are already tuned in.
The 90s cowboys teams had the ‘white house’ – where they did piles of drugs on top of piles of strippers – and Troy Aikman was apparently a big gay (Skip Bayless’ words, not mine) but these stories only emerged after their run was over. Why? Because on the meta-level sports writers don’t care why people read them, and sportstalk doesn’t care why people tune in. When teams are winning, that’s all the news that matters. Scandals don’t seem to matter to players either, unless they’re widely talked about it. On the field, professional players tend not to be easily distracted.
However, it is a lot harder to block out something that you hear about ten times a day, everyday. Charles Barkley once said that if an athlete says he doesn’t read the papers, he’s lying; they all know what is going on in and around their team. When fans stop caring about the games and start caring about the players, which happens on losing teams, those questions they have to answer stop being about the games and start being about the players … thus the tangible distraction.
Why this all relates to McNabb is that through this lens we may be able to see how defensive 5 really is.
There is a real possibility that the Philadelphia Eagles QB1 may have never felt truly comfortable in Eagles’ green. That the man dominated in yellow and blue may be an apt symbol for the beginning of the end of his time here. Truth be told, why should he feel comfortable? We booed him before he threw a snap and booed him again after he brought us to the Super Bowl – but it seems that he’s beginning to acknowledge that discomfort in more and more obvious ways.
His mother frequently suggests her own unhappiness with Philadelphia sports fans – bringing up the booing at the draft often and referring to last season’s run with Garcia at the helm as “bittersweet.” At the time we all seemed to brush off these statements as the words of a loving mother who wanted nothing but the best for her child, but the fact that her words weren’t vehemently shot down by 5 himself may be more telling than we gave credit for.
Also, after last season Andy Reid prohibited McNabb from talking to the press. This story still has never been explained, but there are at least two logical explanations.
1. Reid knew that McNabb didn’t want to hear what the press had to say and intervened on QB1’s behalf. This first scenario is not implausible at all; Reid has a long history of covering for his players and if McNabb asked Reid to keep the media away (or Reid just sensed that was McNabb’s wish at the time), it wouldn’t have offended anyone for Reid to have acted upon that impluse. Intuitively this made the most sense to me at the time, but the fact that McNabb hired his own publicist and started his own image-reclamation project without the knowledge or permission of the team during this past offseason may suggest otherwise. This first scenario suggests that McNabb has thin skin and either needed or wanted to be protected from outside criticism; and possibility 2 may be more problematic .
2. Reid knew that he didn’t want the press to hear what McNabb had to say, and intervened on the Philadelphia Eagles’ behalf. McNabb’s mother saying that she was bothered because she knew that Philadelphia fans are fickle is one thing, 5 himself saying such things may be something completely different. McNabb started last season as hot any QB in the history of the game – save this year’s edition of Tom Brady. It would not be absurd for him to feel slighted by the lovefest thrown upon a game-manager when his own grand achievements were so rarely celebrated. McNabb’s longstanding unhappiness also may have contributed to the black QB scandal earlier this year.
The Birds then picked Kevin Kolb with the explanation that we had no immediate holes to fill, a premise that eight games later my mother could find flaws in. Still (to my knowledge) the team hasn’t acknowledged that McNabb came up from surgery early and may still be fighting effects – it takes TWO full years to recover from major knee surgery. Fact.
McNabb’s MNF football comments about how he thinks he only gets cheered in Philly when he runs outside the pocket (read: acts black) further revealed his discomfort, but it may have been his most recent press conference that really opened the floodgates.
Following the ugly Cowboys loss McNabb talked openly about how, “it's easy to blame the quarterback when the team loses, but I'm definitely not the whole reason why we lost these games.” These statements were made on the team’s official website – no misquote claims possible. 5 continued, “I [shouldn't get the full] blame for everything that goes on around here.”
There are a couple things at play here: No, QB1 shouldn’t be blamed for missing tackles, dropping passes (and punts), poor gameplanning, and a lack of weapons, but that is pretty common fact – something that every sports writer in the city has explicitly said, and that sports fans understand implicitly anyway. It is also something best left unsaid by the McNabb himself.
McNabb shouldn’t be talking about blame at all; he shouldn’t even be talking about lost games either. It may be cliché to say, but this is a long season and while I – the casual sports fan – may be allowed to give up and reclaim hope dozens of time a season he – the quarterback of my team – damn well better not think for a second that he’s going to bring home anything less than 12-5 plus a bowl and the whole damn dinner table.
Scandal may exist within Sport, but it strikes losers … we’re 3-5.
However, none of this mattered, seeing as Friday morning I visited the black hole that is Kenyon College to celebrate Nick’s birthday. Me and the team began the weekend with drinks when I arrived at 5:30 a.m. Shockingly, I never got around to posting the picks.
If you’re curious about how they turned out the basic guess was this: For eight of the thirteen games my line was +/- 1 point of the actual spread, and my record in the games where my personal line was decent but not fantastic enough to establish a theory.
What has changed since then is that, several obvious big stories aside (ex. The Pats run, Adrian Peterson, the Pack being improbably good, the Chargers possible turnaround, etc), my interest in the league as a whole began to waver.
Nova started their season by waxing some nobody (although with the OSU and Kentucky losses nobodies are looking more and more formidable) and looked sick doing it. The Sixers, although a joke, are my joke, and expectations aside I’m excited to watch the dynamic frontline of Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans take the court.
But before I move on the land of milk and guardplay, I’m going to backtrack to everyone’s favorite stomping ground, namely our QB1, Donovan McNabb.
I have the belief that scandal is widespread across sports, regardless of the game being played. I also believe that generally, these scandals don’t affect the team in question at all, because if the team is winning or on the rise, who cares about a peripheral scandal? Fans are already getting the all information they need to keep their attention, and players can generally handle their own.
If the Eagles are winning the story doesn’t have to be “what’s wrong” because Eagles fans across the area are tuning in to hear about what’s right. It doesn’t matter if a player is upset with his playing time if that player is performing on the field. Those old St. Johns’ teams would get into fistfights in the locker-room before games (true story) but we only heard about them years later because that team was good – no need to focus on the bad to make fans look when fans are already tuned in.
The 90s cowboys teams had the ‘white house’ – where they did piles of drugs on top of piles of strippers – and Troy Aikman was apparently a big gay (Skip Bayless’ words, not mine) but these stories only emerged after their run was over. Why? Because on the meta-level sports writers don’t care why people read them, and sportstalk doesn’t care why people tune in. When teams are winning, that’s all the news that matters. Scandals don’t seem to matter to players either, unless they’re widely talked about it. On the field, professional players tend not to be easily distracted.
However, it is a lot harder to block out something that you hear about ten times a day, everyday. Charles Barkley once said that if an athlete says he doesn’t read the papers, he’s lying; they all know what is going on in and around their team. When fans stop caring about the games and start caring about the players, which happens on losing teams, those questions they have to answer stop being about the games and start being about the players … thus the tangible distraction.
Why this all relates to McNabb is that through this lens we may be able to see how defensive 5 really is.
There is a real possibility that the Philadelphia Eagles QB1 may have never felt truly comfortable in Eagles’ green. That the man dominated in yellow and blue may be an apt symbol for the beginning of the end of his time here. Truth be told, why should he feel comfortable? We booed him before he threw a snap and booed him again after he brought us to the Super Bowl – but it seems that he’s beginning to acknowledge that discomfort in more and more obvious ways.
His mother frequently suggests her own unhappiness with Philadelphia sports fans – bringing up the booing at the draft often and referring to last season’s run with Garcia at the helm as “bittersweet.” At the time we all seemed to brush off these statements as the words of a loving mother who wanted nothing but the best for her child, but the fact that her words weren’t vehemently shot down by 5 himself may be more telling than we gave credit for.
Also, after last season Andy Reid prohibited McNabb from talking to the press. This story still has never been explained, but there are at least two logical explanations.
1. Reid knew that McNabb didn’t want to hear what the press had to say and intervened on QB1’s behalf. This first scenario is not implausible at all; Reid has a long history of covering for his players and if McNabb asked Reid to keep the media away (or Reid just sensed that was McNabb’s wish at the time), it wouldn’t have offended anyone for Reid to have acted upon that impluse. Intuitively this made the most sense to me at the time, but the fact that McNabb hired his own publicist and started his own image-reclamation project without the knowledge or permission of the team during this past offseason may suggest otherwise. This first scenario suggests that McNabb has thin skin and either needed or wanted to be protected from outside criticism; and possibility 2 may be more problematic .
2. Reid knew that he didn’t want the press to hear what McNabb had to say, and intervened on the Philadelphia Eagles’ behalf. McNabb’s mother saying that she was bothered because she knew that Philadelphia fans are fickle is one thing, 5 himself saying such things may be something completely different. McNabb started last season as hot any QB in the history of the game – save this year’s edition of Tom Brady. It would not be absurd for him to feel slighted by the lovefest thrown upon a game-manager when his own grand achievements were so rarely celebrated. McNabb’s longstanding unhappiness also may have contributed to the black QB scandal earlier this year.
The Birds then picked Kevin Kolb with the explanation that we had no immediate holes to fill, a premise that eight games later my mother could find flaws in. Still (to my knowledge) the team hasn’t acknowledged that McNabb came up from surgery early and may still be fighting effects – it takes TWO full years to recover from major knee surgery. Fact.
McNabb’s MNF football comments about how he thinks he only gets cheered in Philly when he runs outside the pocket (read: acts black) further revealed his discomfort, but it may have been his most recent press conference that really opened the floodgates.
Following the ugly Cowboys loss McNabb talked openly about how, “it's easy to blame the quarterback when the team loses, but I'm definitely not the whole reason why we lost these games.” These statements were made on the team’s official website – no misquote claims possible. 5 continued, “I [shouldn't get the full] blame for everything that goes on around here.”
There are a couple things at play here: No, QB1 shouldn’t be blamed for missing tackles, dropping passes (and punts), poor gameplanning, and a lack of weapons, but that is pretty common fact – something that every sports writer in the city has explicitly said, and that sports fans understand implicitly anyway. It is also something best left unsaid by the McNabb himself.
McNabb shouldn’t be talking about blame at all; he shouldn’t even be talking about lost games either. It may be cliché to say, but this is a long season and while I – the casual sports fan – may be allowed to give up and reclaim hope dozens of time a season he – the quarterback of my team – damn well better not think for a second that he’s going to bring home anything less than 12-5 plus a bowl and the whole damn dinner table.
Scandal may exist within Sport, but it strikes losers … we’re 3-5.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Week 9 NFL picks and Sixers thoughts
Now that I have some free time on a Saturday and the college football slate right now includes Penn-Princeton, Delaware-James Madison, Syracuse-Pitt, and Penn St-Purdue, I'm actually gonna spend some time on my NFL picks and start to redeem myself. Currently, the record shows that Beale leads me in the picks with a record of 22-33-3 to my 19-36-2, but we've both gotten off to worse starts than the Bulls (home-opening loss to the Sixers?). Maybe putting in a little thought and research into these picks will change things around.
And for the record, I've been pleasantly surprised by the Sixers so far. They held their own against two supposedly good teams on the road and they're showing some good signs: they've actually grasped the fact that they are meant to be a running team; Andre Miller has been willing to get out on the break; and Iguodala is already looking like the player some thought he would be (23 4th quarter points in 2 games, as well as great D toward the end of the Chicago game). Once he becomes a better ball-handler (still by far the weakest part of his game) and more confident shooting the ball, it looks like he can become a more-athletic, better-defensive,worse-1-on-1 version of Paul Pierce. he's already got the Truth's passing skills and competitiveness, and will be a far better defender and finisher around the rim. If only we'd locked him like we should have last week, instead of now being forced to match a WAY bigger offer at the end of this season than we would have had to give him this offseason. Oh, and one more encouraging stat: through 26 total minutes, my man Lou Williams has yet to commit a single turnover. Granted, he's only averaging 3.5 pts and 2.5 assists, but he's done a fine job of running the second unit without getting out of control.
Now, onto my improved NFL picks for Week 9:
EAGLES (+3) vs. Dallas
I just told Beale a few nights ago that I guessed this line would be closer to -5.5 before they came out with the lines, and that if I were still betting, I would definitely pick Dallas considering how low the line is. Since then, though, I got a ticket to the game on Sunday night and with me in the stands, there is no way they lose this game. For my career going to Eagles games, they are 4-2 and the 2 losses were by 2 and 3 points, respectively, on opposing teams' game-ending field goals. So given that logic, even if we lose this game, it will be by 2 or 3 points.
As mediocre as this team has been so far, we have (with only 1 exception) played Dallas well the last 5 years, and we always play them tough at home. Even when we stunk 2 years ago, we had them beat at home before McNabb threw that awful pick to Roy "I pray that teams don't throw at me" Williams and Reggie Brown dropped a wide open last minute pass from Mike McMahon that would have given us an easy field goal to win. And we frustrated the hell out of Romo last year in Dallas (14-29, 141, 1 TD, 2 INT), which I think we can do again the way our D-ends are playing and with Dawk back. Both teams have been good defensively against the run, average against the pass (meaning the ball will be in the air A LOT on Sunday), and both offenses have moved the ball decently (only the Eagles haven't been able to score inside the Red Zone, which I actually think is one of those fluky stats that can change suddenly game-to-game). So, ultimately I think it'll come down to the emotion of the crowd, and whichever team makes that big play or 2, which we seem to always do against Dallas in Philly. Even though the betting pick would probably be Dallas, I like us 27-24 in an upset.
Washington (-3.5) at NY JETS
This Jets team is awful, and Clemens will make too many mistakes for them to win this game. Washington should be embarrassed after having the score run up on them like that, and even though this will likely be an ugly game, I like the Skins. They rarely play pretty ball anyway, and with a good possession QB, a half-decent running game, very good TE, and a stout defense that also takes the ball away and scores (aside from the N.E. game against the best offense in NFL history, they've given up under 15 pts per game), they are built to win low-scoring, ugly games.
KANSAS CITY (-2) vs. Green Bay
This was a tough game for me to call, since my instincts tell me that KC blows and should always be bet against, especially when they're giving points. However, the Chiefs have actually started playing pretty good football and can probably sense that they really have a chance to take control of a division that they're already tied for the lead in. Neither team can run the ball at all so we can expect a lot of passing, but K.C. has been better against the pass (opposing QBs have a rating 10 pts lower against KC than against GB) and they take the ball away more. I know the Pack just won a road game at an AFC West opponent who, just like KC, has historically had a huge home-field advantage. But it's tough to take 2 long trips in a row, and the Pack have had a short week to prepare.
Also, some Vegas trends to point out: in the last 2 years, KC is 2-0 ATS after the bye against NFC teams (outscoring teams 69-21 in those 2 games); in the last 3 years, they are 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records; they're 13-5 ATS in home games over that span. Now, some numbers go in GB's favor: they are 12-7 ATS in road games over the last 3 years and KC is only 2-8 ATS after 2 straight wins. But with all those numbers, the most telling thing to me is that in Vegas the Pack are getting 70% of the action, yet the Linemakers lowered them to -105 with the spread (WITHOUT shifting the line). This means that even though the money is going to GB, they are encouraging even more action toward them, a sign that Vegas likes KC here.
Arizona (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY
I am really not sold on this Tampa team, especially with how poorly Garcia has played the last 2 weeks and how poorly Gruden has coached. First off, I also love Adrian Wilson. And that Zona offense has enough weapons to throw up 24 on Tampa, which will win this game. They're similar defensively, but Zona right now has the better running game, and this Tampa D cannot stop the run. Also, Arizona is 5-2 ATS, and 5-0 as an underdog (4-0 as a 3.5-9.5 pt dog also) to Tampa's 4-4 ATS. And the Cards had their bye last week, which I like.
TENNESSEE (-4) vs. Carolina
I actually think is gonna be a blowout. I would have had this as a 6 or 7 point spread, given the fact that David Carr will be starting for Carolina. Granted, Carolina has been a very good underdog team (3-1 ATS), but they're also 0-2 ATS against the AFC South, and this game is at Tennessee. Also, David Carr is a whopping 2-8 lifetime against the Titans, with both wins coming in 2004 against a putrid, 5-11 Tenn team. Thought you should know that.
San Fran (+3.5) at ATLANTA
Since these teams are equally awful, and their ATS numbers are both extremely mediocre, I'll take the team that at least has 1 OK number going for it. Amazingly enough, the Niners are 5-1 ATS in games in domes the last 3 years. That's enough for me. As is the fact that they don't have Joey Harrington playing QB for them.
Jacksonville (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
Very hard for me to pick a team with Quinn Gray starting for it, but they do enough of the little things for me to pick them against a team that I still don't think is very good. Even including their good year last year, New Orleans has been bad at home (4-11 ATS), while Jax has been a respectable 11-9 road team. The only thing I don't like is that the Jags are a running team and NO has actually been very good against the run (only 3.6 ypc against the run). Still, though, I think this game comes to Jacksonville being a team that does not turn it over (+4 in TO margin) and the Saints being one that does (-9 in TO margin). Jacksonville manages the game and forces enough turnovers to win this one, or at least make it very close. Still, I'm wavering because I could also see the Saints getting out to a big lead, meaning Quinn Gray would have to throw.
DETROIT (-3) vs. Denver
At first I had Denver in this one, but I've decided this week to actually look at how teams have done against the spread, instead of using only my own subjective feelings (as I usually do). I still think Detroit is mediocre, but Denver is just as bad. They can't stop the run, and their offense really has no playmakers anymore, aside from Marshall. They're also 1-6 ATS, and 1-2 as a dog, whereas Detroit is 4-2 ATS and 2-0 at home. They can put up a lot of points, and I just don't think Denver's offense is good enough anymore to outscore them in a shootout.
Cincy (-1) at BUFFALO
Cincy has to win eventually. I'll keep picking them until they do. I don't care that Buffalo is 5-2 ATS to Cincy's 2-4. There may not be a ton of offense in this game, but even in the bad weather in Buffalo, you can still hit big plays, and that's what Cincy will do.
San Diego (-7) at MINNY
San Diego is just a much better team. 2 great rush defenses, but you can definitely throw on the Vikings (worst pass D in the NFL), which San Diego can now do with Chambers in town. San Diego is starting to destroy people, and on top of that, they are historically a GREAT team in domes (how about 21-6 ATS in dome games since 1992, in one of the most obscure stats I'll ever drop). And Minny has not beaten the AFC, going 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND (-1) vs. Seattle
I always like the way the Browns play at home, and surprisingly enough, the Browns have the advantage in Vegas numbers not just this year, but also in the last few years. Over the last 3 years, they have a winning ATS record across the board in EVERY category this game fits into (November, NFC opponent, grass field, playing against teams with winning records, home games, home favorite, etc, etc.), whereas Seattle has been a really mediocre team in the categories this game fits into (non-conference, November, coming off Division game, underdog, road dog, etc). Also, this Cleveland offense is beyond legit. All those high draft picks on offensive players these last few years are paying off, and let's face it: Seattle kind of stinks. They don't do anything well. They're in the middle of the league in every conceivable category, and basically just have the saving grace of playing in the NFC West, which is absolutely horrid.
Houston (+3) at OAKLAND
These teams are both awful ATS, so I'm not gonna even try to get into any of those numbers. What this game comes down to to me, is Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, and I think Sage and the surprisingly potent Houston offense (4th in the NFL) will put up too many points for McCown to deal with. The only cool matchup here is that Oakland does ok against the pass and terrible against the run, but Houston never runs. So, maybe this will end up being a close game, which is even more reason for me to take the points.
Baltimore (+9) at STEELERS
Tough call for me. Division rivalry and Baltimore usually plays the Steelers tough (or just beats them). In fact, I just switched my pick after writing those first 2 sentences. These teams are 1-2 in defense (interestingly, the Pats and Colts are 3-4, respectively, so there are some good matchups), but Baltimore is giving up a lot more points. Still, I tend to think that's because the Baltimore O is awful and gives up the ball to the other team in good field position. This Baltimore D also doesn't take the ball away like they used to, but they still have more takeaways than Pittsburgh. Basically, I think when everything is said and done, the Steelers will win this game, but it'll probably be closer than 9 points. This pick is definitely subject to change, though, especially considering the Steelers' absurd numbers ATS as a favorite (5-2 in '07, 16-6 the last 3 years, and 70-43 the last 15 years). That franchise covers as favorites like it's their job.
COLTS (+5.5) vs. New England
Funny, I didn't even realize these teams were playing each other. I mean, I haven't heard much about this game this week. I think I caught a little piece about it on Versus, but you would think there would be more hype for a game that involves 2 of the best guys in the league at their position: Gostkowski vs. Vinatieri, Round 3. So far, Adam's gotten him, 2 games to none, so this is a big rematch for Steven. Frankly, I think Vinatieri's due for a big game, making it 3-0 lifetime against his New England counterpart.
In all seriousness, though, I have had a hard time getting over the Colts -- a 7-0 team coming off a Super Bowl win and STILL improved -- being such a big home underdog. I don't care who they're playing, or how good this New England offense is. Both teams have been playing great: NE and Indy are 1 and 3 respectively in offense, 3 and 4 respectively in defense, and both are tied for first with a +11 TO margin. In terms of gambling, they've both been absurdly good ATS, this year and the past few. The only real difference this year is that Belichick is an asshole and runs up the score, whereas Dungy is a good Christian who is content with just winning games (just as he's content with marriage only being between a man and a woman and with never allowing scientists to save lives with stem cell research). Hence, New England has been covering games while Indy has just been winning without having to cover every time.
So what does this game come down to? I think just 2 things: 1) the Colts have been flying under the radar and have shown the league absolutely nothing so far this year (they've essentially been saving Harrison all year for this game). They've also gotta be a little annoyed that they're the champs and are undefeated, yet NE is getting all the pub. 2) The Colts are playing at home. If this game were at Foxboro, yeah, I'd pick the Pats. But Indy has a great homefield advantage, which I think will be huge in this game. I like the Colts, 37-34. And hell, why not, they'll win on a missed Gostkowski field goal, reminding everyone that it was Vinatieri, not Brady, winning all those championships.
(P.S. As I watch Notre Dame struggle with Navy -- who comes off a loss to an average 1-AA team -- I can only wonder how much Charlie Weis wishes he hadn't taken that ND job and was still around to coach this New England offense.)
And for the record, I've been pleasantly surprised by the Sixers so far. They held their own against two supposedly good teams on the road and they're showing some good signs: they've actually grasped the fact that they are meant to be a running team; Andre Miller has been willing to get out on the break; and Iguodala is already looking like the player some thought he would be (23 4th quarter points in 2 games, as well as great D toward the end of the Chicago game). Once he becomes a better ball-handler (still by far the weakest part of his game) and more confident shooting the ball, it looks like he can become a more-athletic, better-defensive,worse-1-on-1 version of Paul Pierce. he's already got the Truth's passing skills and competitiveness, and will be a far better defender and finisher around the rim. If only we'd locked him like we should have last week, instead of now being forced to match a WAY bigger offer at the end of this season than we would have had to give him this offseason. Oh, and one more encouraging stat: through 26 total minutes, my man Lou Williams has yet to commit a single turnover. Granted, he's only averaging 3.5 pts and 2.5 assists, but he's done a fine job of running the second unit without getting out of control.
Now, onto my improved NFL picks for Week 9:
EAGLES (+3) vs. Dallas
I just told Beale a few nights ago that I guessed this line would be closer to -5.5 before they came out with the lines, and that if I were still betting, I would definitely pick Dallas considering how low the line is. Since then, though, I got a ticket to the game on Sunday night and with me in the stands, there is no way they lose this game. For my career going to Eagles games, they are 4-2 and the 2 losses were by 2 and 3 points, respectively, on opposing teams' game-ending field goals. So given that logic, even if we lose this game, it will be by 2 or 3 points.
As mediocre as this team has been so far, we have (with only 1 exception) played Dallas well the last 5 years, and we always play them tough at home. Even when we stunk 2 years ago, we had them beat at home before McNabb threw that awful pick to Roy "I pray that teams don't throw at me" Williams and Reggie Brown dropped a wide open last minute pass from Mike McMahon that would have given us an easy field goal to win. And we frustrated the hell out of Romo last year in Dallas (14-29, 141, 1 TD, 2 INT), which I think we can do again the way our D-ends are playing and with Dawk back. Both teams have been good defensively against the run, average against the pass (meaning the ball will be in the air A LOT on Sunday), and both offenses have moved the ball decently (only the Eagles haven't been able to score inside the Red Zone, which I actually think is one of those fluky stats that can change suddenly game-to-game). So, ultimately I think it'll come down to the emotion of the crowd, and whichever team makes that big play or 2, which we seem to always do against Dallas in Philly. Even though the betting pick would probably be Dallas, I like us 27-24 in an upset.
Washington (-3.5) at NY JETS
This Jets team is awful, and Clemens will make too many mistakes for them to win this game. Washington should be embarrassed after having the score run up on them like that, and even though this will likely be an ugly game, I like the Skins. They rarely play pretty ball anyway, and with a good possession QB, a half-decent running game, very good TE, and a stout defense that also takes the ball away and scores (aside from the N.E. game against the best offense in NFL history, they've given up under 15 pts per game), they are built to win low-scoring, ugly games.
KANSAS CITY (-2) vs. Green Bay
This was a tough game for me to call, since my instincts tell me that KC blows and should always be bet against, especially when they're giving points. However, the Chiefs have actually started playing pretty good football and can probably sense that they really have a chance to take control of a division that they're already tied for the lead in. Neither team can run the ball at all so we can expect a lot of passing, but K.C. has been better against the pass (opposing QBs have a rating 10 pts lower against KC than against GB) and they take the ball away more. I know the Pack just won a road game at an AFC West opponent who, just like KC, has historically had a huge home-field advantage. But it's tough to take 2 long trips in a row, and the Pack have had a short week to prepare.
Also, some Vegas trends to point out: in the last 2 years, KC is 2-0 ATS after the bye against NFC teams (outscoring teams 69-21 in those 2 games); in the last 3 years, they are 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records; they're 13-5 ATS in home games over that span. Now, some numbers go in GB's favor: they are 12-7 ATS in road games over the last 3 years and KC is only 2-8 ATS after 2 straight wins. But with all those numbers, the most telling thing to me is that in Vegas the Pack are getting 70% of the action, yet the Linemakers lowered them to -105 with the spread (WITHOUT shifting the line). This means that even though the money is going to GB, they are encouraging even more action toward them, a sign that Vegas likes KC here.
Arizona (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY
I am really not sold on this Tampa team, especially with how poorly Garcia has played the last 2 weeks and how poorly Gruden has coached. First off, I also love Adrian Wilson. And that Zona offense has enough weapons to throw up 24 on Tampa, which will win this game. They're similar defensively, but Zona right now has the better running game, and this Tampa D cannot stop the run. Also, Arizona is 5-2 ATS, and 5-0 as an underdog (4-0 as a 3.5-9.5 pt dog also) to Tampa's 4-4 ATS. And the Cards had their bye last week, which I like.
TENNESSEE (-4) vs. Carolina
I actually think is gonna be a blowout. I would have had this as a 6 or 7 point spread, given the fact that David Carr will be starting for Carolina. Granted, Carolina has been a very good underdog team (3-1 ATS), but they're also 0-2 ATS against the AFC South, and this game is at Tennessee. Also, David Carr is a whopping 2-8 lifetime against the Titans, with both wins coming in 2004 against a putrid, 5-11 Tenn team. Thought you should know that.
San Fran (+3.5) at ATLANTA
Since these teams are equally awful, and their ATS numbers are both extremely mediocre, I'll take the team that at least has 1 OK number going for it. Amazingly enough, the Niners are 5-1 ATS in games in domes the last 3 years. That's enough for me. As is the fact that they don't have Joey Harrington playing QB for them.
Jacksonville (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
Very hard for me to pick a team with Quinn Gray starting for it, but they do enough of the little things for me to pick them against a team that I still don't think is very good. Even including their good year last year, New Orleans has been bad at home (4-11 ATS), while Jax has been a respectable 11-9 road team. The only thing I don't like is that the Jags are a running team and NO has actually been very good against the run (only 3.6 ypc against the run). Still, though, I think this game comes to Jacksonville being a team that does not turn it over (+4 in TO margin) and the Saints being one that does (-9 in TO margin). Jacksonville manages the game and forces enough turnovers to win this one, or at least make it very close. Still, I'm wavering because I could also see the Saints getting out to a big lead, meaning Quinn Gray would have to throw.
DETROIT (-3) vs. Denver
At first I had Denver in this one, but I've decided this week to actually look at how teams have done against the spread, instead of using only my own subjective feelings (as I usually do). I still think Detroit is mediocre, but Denver is just as bad. They can't stop the run, and their offense really has no playmakers anymore, aside from Marshall. They're also 1-6 ATS, and 1-2 as a dog, whereas Detroit is 4-2 ATS and 2-0 at home. They can put up a lot of points, and I just don't think Denver's offense is good enough anymore to outscore them in a shootout.
Cincy (-1) at BUFFALO
Cincy has to win eventually. I'll keep picking them until they do. I don't care that Buffalo is 5-2 ATS to Cincy's 2-4. There may not be a ton of offense in this game, but even in the bad weather in Buffalo, you can still hit big plays, and that's what Cincy will do.
San Diego (-7) at MINNY
San Diego is just a much better team. 2 great rush defenses, but you can definitely throw on the Vikings (worst pass D in the NFL), which San Diego can now do with Chambers in town. San Diego is starting to destroy people, and on top of that, they are historically a GREAT team in domes (how about 21-6 ATS in dome games since 1992, in one of the most obscure stats I'll ever drop). And Minny has not beaten the AFC, going 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND (-1) vs. Seattle
I always like the way the Browns play at home, and surprisingly enough, the Browns have the advantage in Vegas numbers not just this year, but also in the last few years. Over the last 3 years, they have a winning ATS record across the board in EVERY category this game fits into (November, NFC opponent, grass field, playing against teams with winning records, home games, home favorite, etc, etc.), whereas Seattle has been a really mediocre team in the categories this game fits into (non-conference, November, coming off Division game, underdog, road dog, etc). Also, this Cleveland offense is beyond legit. All those high draft picks on offensive players these last few years are paying off, and let's face it: Seattle kind of stinks. They don't do anything well. They're in the middle of the league in every conceivable category, and basically just have the saving grace of playing in the NFC West, which is absolutely horrid.
Houston (+3) at OAKLAND
These teams are both awful ATS, so I'm not gonna even try to get into any of those numbers. What this game comes down to to me, is Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, and I think Sage and the surprisingly potent Houston offense (4th in the NFL) will put up too many points for McCown to deal with. The only cool matchup here is that Oakland does ok against the pass and terrible against the run, but Houston never runs. So, maybe this will end up being a close game, which is even more reason for me to take the points.
Baltimore (+9) at STEELERS
Tough call for me. Division rivalry and Baltimore usually plays the Steelers tough (or just beats them). In fact, I just switched my pick after writing those first 2 sentences. These teams are 1-2 in defense (interestingly, the Pats and Colts are 3-4, respectively, so there are some good matchups), but Baltimore is giving up a lot more points. Still, I tend to think that's because the Baltimore O is awful and gives up the ball to the other team in good field position. This Baltimore D also doesn't take the ball away like they used to, but they still have more takeaways than Pittsburgh. Basically, I think when everything is said and done, the Steelers will win this game, but it'll probably be closer than 9 points. This pick is definitely subject to change, though, especially considering the Steelers' absurd numbers ATS as a favorite (5-2 in '07, 16-6 the last 3 years, and 70-43 the last 15 years). That franchise covers as favorites like it's their job.
COLTS (+5.5) vs. New England
Funny, I didn't even realize these teams were playing each other. I mean, I haven't heard much about this game this week. I think I caught a little piece about it on Versus, but you would think there would be more hype for a game that involves 2 of the best guys in the league at their position: Gostkowski vs. Vinatieri, Round 3. So far, Adam's gotten him, 2 games to none, so this is a big rematch for Steven. Frankly, I think Vinatieri's due for a big game, making it 3-0 lifetime against his New England counterpart.
In all seriousness, though, I have had a hard time getting over the Colts -- a 7-0 team coming off a Super Bowl win and STILL improved -- being such a big home underdog. I don't care who they're playing, or how good this New England offense is. Both teams have been playing great: NE and Indy are 1 and 3 respectively in offense, 3 and 4 respectively in defense, and both are tied for first with a +11 TO margin. In terms of gambling, they've both been absurdly good ATS, this year and the past few. The only real difference this year is that Belichick is an asshole and runs up the score, whereas Dungy is a good Christian who is content with just winning games (just as he's content with marriage only being between a man and a woman and with never allowing scientists to save lives with stem cell research). Hence, New England has been covering games while Indy has just been winning without having to cover every time.
So what does this game come down to? I think just 2 things: 1) the Colts have been flying under the radar and have shown the league absolutely nothing so far this year (they've essentially been saving Harrison all year for this game). They've also gotta be a little annoyed that they're the champs and are undefeated, yet NE is getting all the pub. 2) The Colts are playing at home. If this game were at Foxboro, yeah, I'd pick the Pats. But Indy has a great homefield advantage, which I think will be huge in this game. I like the Colts, 37-34. And hell, why not, they'll win on a missed Gostkowski field goal, reminding everyone that it was Vinatieri, not Brady, winning all those championships.
(P.S. As I watch Notre Dame struggle with Navy -- who comes off a loss to an average 1-AA team -- I can only wonder how much Charlie Weis wishes he hadn't taken that ND job and was still around to coach this New England offense.)
Monday, October 29, 2007
Last Week's Picks
Because I feel bad about missing the picks I’m doing a “roundup” column instead. I’ll include my picks for the record:
Browns (-3) over RAMS (final score, 27-20)
Ray Didinger – for those outside Philadelphia Diddy is a senior producer at NFL films the unquestioned smartest football voice in America. He also co-hosts a Saturday morning sports talk show, which is going to become relevant right about now – was co-hosting his Saturday morning sports talk show and MacNow (other co-host) starts to talk about the great injustice that the NFL is doing to their fans and American football this week (we’ll get to that game later). Before MacNow gets a question but after he manages to use the word “abomination” to describe the event Didinger cuts in and guesses “Cardinals-Rams?”
That’s pretty much all I have to say about this game.
Lions (+5) over BEARS (final score 16-7)
So Dey-twa has beaten Chicago four straight times and is halfway to the “more then 10” wins Kitna guaranteed in the preseason and they have already matched or surpassed their win total in 4 out of the last 5 years. They did so on a steady diet of Kevin Jones, whoever their kicker is, and trying not to punt to Devin Hester (who delivered the brilliant post game comment “you can either give it to us at the 40 or you can pitch to Barry Bonds.”)
Still, I saw all of those 56 points and I’m not buying that this team is good yet.
Jags (+3.5) over BUCS (Jacksonville 24, TB 23)
Jacksonville ran 44 times, threw 16 times and won. Fred Taylor carried more times than the entire TB team and Jeff Garcia had 3 more completions than the Jags had attempts – and misfired 22 times.
Colts (-7) over PANTHERS (Colts 31-7)
Game of the year, 1 week away. I’m predicting an early injury to one of the all-world QBs and an ensuing blowout one way or the other. These games never match the hype.
As for this game the most exciting thing I can say is that it was a bad day for All-Pro Wideouts: Marvin Harrison missed the game due to injury and Steve Smith didn’t touch the ball after the first quarter – which seems impossible.
Bills (+3) over JETS (Bill, 13-3)
In a surprise to no one, the AP described this game as “incredibly dull.”
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCY (24-13)
Chad Johnson has been telling other team’s defensive backs to “get him out of there” and is rumored to have mentioned a similar statement to at least one opposing head coach.
His mate across the hash marks, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, had this to say about Marvin Lewis to kick a field goal from the Steelers' two instead of going for the touch: "That's why they're 5-2 and we're 2-5,'' Houshmandzadeh said. ''Good teams put it in the end zone. Teams like us kick field goals.”
Marvin Lewis, who I always thought was a hell of a football coach, has lost that team.
E-A-G-L-E-S (-1) over Purple Jesus (23-16)
We held PJ in check and started gearing up for Romo (seen carousing with Brittney Spears) and TOD next Sunday at the Linc.
Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS (Ten 13-9)
Vince Young averaged 1.9 yards a pass and 1.6 yards a run. Maybe that’s how Madden is going to get him this year.
New Orleans (-2.5) over 9ERS (31-10)
I’m sure this point got beat to death during the telecast, but the fact that Alex Smith and Reggie Bush were high school teammates is pretty fucking cool.
Also, the Saints aren’t back, the rest of their division is just awful so it might look that way.
Dolphins (+9) over Giants (in London)(13-10 NYFG)
London Times said this: “In a contest that seldom lived up to expectations, there were too many errors, penalties and incomplete passes.” Sounds about right, I can’t believe we sent England Eli Manning and Cleo Lemon.
Anyone think the Dolphins might be ready for the Brady Quinn era to begin?
PATRIOTS (-16) over Skins (a million to nothing)
I can’t believe those classless redskins don’t even let their top-5 defense show up to the game.
Asante Samuel offered this: “we wanted the shutout real bad. But obviously when we let any team score on us, it’s really disappointing. We’re happy about the victory but we would have loved the shutout.”
I’m unreasonably confident that Brady is going to break his leg this week, thus ruing the single most dominant team that I’ve seen play sports. Things are too good to be true always seem to turn out that way.
Chargers (no line) over Texans (35-10 SD)
They played in San Diego and the Chargers look back. Dunta Robinson is embarrassed and Rivers can throw again, all is right in this world.
The Pack (+3) over DENVER
It’s a bad week for Denver.
Browns (-3) over RAMS (final score, 27-20)
Ray Didinger – for those outside Philadelphia Diddy is a senior producer at NFL films the unquestioned smartest football voice in America. He also co-hosts a Saturday morning sports talk show, which is going to become relevant right about now – was co-hosting his Saturday morning sports talk show and MacNow (other co-host) starts to talk about the great injustice that the NFL is doing to their fans and American football this week (we’ll get to that game later). Before MacNow gets a question but after he manages to use the word “abomination” to describe the event Didinger cuts in and guesses “Cardinals-Rams?”
That’s pretty much all I have to say about this game.
Lions (+5) over BEARS (final score 16-7)
So Dey-twa has beaten Chicago four straight times and is halfway to the “more then 10” wins Kitna guaranteed in the preseason and they have already matched or surpassed their win total in 4 out of the last 5 years. They did so on a steady diet of Kevin Jones, whoever their kicker is, and trying not to punt to Devin Hester (who delivered the brilliant post game comment “you can either give it to us at the 40 or you can pitch to Barry Bonds.”)
Still, I saw all of those 56 points and I’m not buying that this team is good yet.
Jags (+3.5) over BUCS (Jacksonville 24, TB 23)
Jacksonville ran 44 times, threw 16 times and won. Fred Taylor carried more times than the entire TB team and Jeff Garcia had 3 more completions than the Jags had attempts – and misfired 22 times.
Colts (-7) over PANTHERS (Colts 31-7)
Game of the year, 1 week away. I’m predicting an early injury to one of the all-world QBs and an ensuing blowout one way or the other. These games never match the hype.
As for this game the most exciting thing I can say is that it was a bad day for All-Pro Wideouts: Marvin Harrison missed the game due to injury and Steve Smith didn’t touch the ball after the first quarter – which seems impossible.
Bills (+3) over JETS (Bill, 13-3)
In a surprise to no one, the AP described this game as “incredibly dull.”
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCY (24-13)
Chad Johnson has been telling other team’s defensive backs to “get him out of there” and is rumored to have mentioned a similar statement to at least one opposing head coach.
His mate across the hash marks, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, had this to say about Marvin Lewis to kick a field goal from the Steelers' two instead of going for the touch: "That's why they're 5-2 and we're 2-5,'' Houshmandzadeh said. ''Good teams put it in the end zone. Teams like us kick field goals.”
Marvin Lewis, who I always thought was a hell of a football coach, has lost that team.
E-A-G-L-E-S (-1) over Purple Jesus (23-16)
We held PJ in check and started gearing up for Romo (seen carousing with Brittney Spears) and TOD next Sunday at the Linc.
Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS (Ten 13-9)
Vince Young averaged 1.9 yards a pass and 1.6 yards a run. Maybe that’s how Madden is going to get him this year.
New Orleans (-2.5) over 9ERS (31-10)
I’m sure this point got beat to death during the telecast, but the fact that Alex Smith and Reggie Bush were high school teammates is pretty fucking cool.
Also, the Saints aren’t back, the rest of their division is just awful so it might look that way.
Dolphins (+9) over Giants (in London)(13-10 NYFG)
London Times said this: “In a contest that seldom lived up to expectations, there were too many errors, penalties and incomplete passes.” Sounds about right, I can’t believe we sent England Eli Manning and Cleo Lemon.
Anyone think the Dolphins might be ready for the Brady Quinn era to begin?
PATRIOTS (-16) over Skins (a million to nothing)
I can’t believe those classless redskins don’t even let their top-5 defense show up to the game.
Asante Samuel offered this: “we wanted the shutout real bad. But obviously when we let any team score on us, it’s really disappointing. We’re happy about the victory but we would have loved the shutout.”
I’m unreasonably confident that Brady is going to break his leg this week, thus ruing the single most dominant team that I’ve seen play sports. Things are too good to be true always seem to turn out that way.
Chargers (no line) over Texans (35-10 SD)
They played in San Diego and the Chargers look back. Dunta Robinson is embarrassed and Rivers can throw again, all is right in this world.
The Pack (+3) over DENVER
It’s a bad week for Denver.
Vince Young: Troublemaker!
From the AP story of yesterday's game:
"Young's frustration boiled over after Derrick Burgess sacked him on third-and-2 in the third quarter. Young threw the ball downfield after he hit the ground and picked up a delay of game penalty."
He also answers a question about a dropped ball by responding, "I'm tired of seeing the defense in these situations having to win the game for us."
I think I've found a hobby
"Young's frustration boiled over after Derrick Burgess sacked him on third-and-2 in the third quarter. Young threw the ball downfield after he hit the ground and picked up a delay of game penalty."
He also answers a question about a dropped ball by responding, "I'm tired of seeing the defense in these situations having to win the game for us."
I think I've found a hobby
James 1, Boston 1
So while I may have made myself look foolish and ignorant by claiming confidently that the Rockies were going to come back, even after that game 1 trashing let the world know that I redeemed myself in my fight against Boston by putting an absolute hurting on formally first place McAdams in my fantasy football league.
life is balanced once more
if someone sends me an embarrassing picture of McAdams I promise to post it in conjuncture with this post
life is balanced once more
if someone sends me an embarrassing picture of McAdams I promise to post it in conjuncture with this post
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