Alright, if memory serves I recovered admirably from a poor first couple weeks to DOMINATE the picks two weeks ago, before taking my bye last week. That display was not nearly as impressive as this current one though, I’m pretty confident I’m pulling off the rare sweep. Without further ado:
MIA (-16.5) over New England
Confident: Trap game after the big Dallas win. Plus NE is on the road against the only team ever to have gone undefeated and always seem to play the other undefeated tough. Brady sucks at Miami (218 yards and 2 TD in two games last year combined last year, and 312 with 3 picks the year before). Ronnie Brown has been a monster, a heavy dose of him this week should at least keep the NE offense off the field a bit. Also, I feel like I’m the only guy in America who likes the Chambers trade from the Dolphins end. Not only do they pick up a 2nd rounder (great value) but they get rid of a veteran whose not going to be happy there and replace his touches with a kid whose going to think this weekend is the superbowl.
Plus Miami might be nuts enough not to get blown away. Check out this quote from linebacker Channing Crowder: "I don't think we should be any underdog, I don't think the team's that much better than us."
I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but this game is not going to decided by over two touchdowns.
Hesitant: Miami is awful and the Pats are excellent. No team plays the disrespect card better than the Pats and some guy named Channing Crowder just called them out. NE is 6-0 against the spread and I think just picked Miss Cleo over Tom Brady.
Tampa Bay (-2) over DEY-TWA
Confident: I just can’t get that ‘56’ out of my head, I honestly might have to pick against Detroit all season.
Hesitant: This is the type of game that is determined by the style of play, if the ‘under’ comes up I think so does TB, if its ‘over’ I think it’s the Lions – that means that I’m assuming that Tampa Bay can come into Detroit without their workhouse (Cadillac) and impose their style of play.
San Fran (-9) over THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Confident: the NYFG just played MNF football again and with San Fran than Miami before the bye I can see this game being a bit of a trap. Record aside, I’m not sold on this giants team being any good, plus both of their running backs are banged up – both Ward and Jacobs have bad ankles.
Hesitant: The Niners safeties both get beat deep, and Plax has been a monster this year so I expect him to go off and if they get up early its not like Trent Dilfer is going to be leading a ferocious comeback.
WAS (-7.5) over Arizona
Confident: Arizona is a mess, Washington’s D is legitimately good, Tim Rattey isn’t. Jason Campell just might be, Arizona’s second leading rusher is Matt Leinhart.
Hesitant: I wish the line was a point lower – I think Wisenhunt is going to try to grind this game out, and giving up a touchdown seem like a lot, especially against a team that hasn’t gotten any touchdowns from its receivers this year. I almost talked myself out of this pick.
Atl (-8) over N.O.
Confident: I’ve always been irrationally favorable towards Byron Leftwich, plus when I was guessing this line I was off by WAY too much. I just think New Orleans might stink. I know its an awful game, but I think I’d really enjoy watching these bums play. Fun fact: Jerious Norwood has half of the carries that Warrick Dunn has (82 to 41) but only 30 less yards.
Hesitant: New Orleans may stink, but Atl definitely does stink.
BUFFALO (-3) over BMore
Confident: Buffalo in Buffalo isn’t going to roll over, not with all those Canadians supporting them. Plus there is talk in BMore about Ogden being out for the year and it seems like that entire team is banged up.
Hesitant: Rex Ryan can scheme his ass off and God’s linebacker, Ed Reed, Bart Scot, T. Suggs and the gang used to eat rookie QBs whole. If they get that back it could be a long day.
Ten (-1) at HOUSTON
Confident: V.Young may never lose at Houston: he’s a gamer, its his hometown, and they passed on him for Mario Williams.
Hesitant: he might be hurt, which throws off their entire weeks gameplan. As Mawae, their center put it, “its not like they’re going to run the option with Kerry Collins in there.” But they do have to practice it.
OAK (+3) over Kansas City
Confident: Oakland is the shit! Kansas City is actually leading that division, and that’s not going to keep up.
Hesitant: not Hesitant, which surely means I’m going to lose.
Jets (-6) over CINCI
Confident: Often times when a QB is on the ropes they respond with a not-awful game, this is Chad Pennington’s time for that not-awful game.
Hesitant: The JetsJetsJets played an awful game and had an awful gameplan last week, they are not to be trusted. I’m picking a road-dog? Cincy always finishes at .500, meaning they need to start winning now to get there.
SEATTLE (+8) over St. Louis
Confident: I'm not, they both stink.
Hesitant: I lost all my notes on this game, so I'm just writing this instead.
PHILLY (+5) over Chi
Confident: I’m sticking with my man Winston. Plus we always get better as the year goes along, and this year is certainly going along.
Hesitant: That line is WAY too high, our starting right tackle, who has started 183 consectutive games, hurt himself falling off a table, this may not be our year. Devin Hester is really scary.
Minn (-9.5) at DAL
Confident: A team with a good running game and a solid D should never lose by nine and a half points. Plus T.O. is whining again (this week’s pet peeve: why isn’t he getting called out for this week’s antics? Saying “I’m not going to complain even though we should be throwing it deep more often and finding ways to get me the ball” IS complaining!) and Romo’s a jerk.
Hesitant: Any and everyone can pass on the Vikings, which is bad.
Pitt (+3.5) at DEN
Confident: Champ and Bly can’t stop the run. Simeon Rice (who plays for Denver this year, who knew?) is openly complaining in their papers and wishes he didn’t have to play there. No home field advantage because the Rockies have taken that town over. Javon Walker is out
Hesitant: I’m not, this one’s going to be a blowout.
Indy (+3) at JAX
Confident: Indy is really, really good and not getting any respect or attention because the Pats just may be better. Indy shows up in big regular season games (I’m still of the camp that Manning folds in the playoffs AND that he folded last year and the team won despite him in the playoffs), David Garrard is due for a INT?
Hesitant: Indy lost 44-17 at Jacksonville last year.
Friday, October 19, 2007
so this might not be our year
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
RSS feeds
So we should probably add one for 9stabs. How do I do that again? Also I promise a creative picture of PP getting stabbed in the next 18 months (or so). Scouts honor.
The Legend of Lou Williams
Right up until about 10:30 last Friday night I had absolutely written off Louis Williams as a legit NBA player. There were just too many undersized high-school shooting guards turned 2nd round busts out there and it was getting harder and harder for me to envision LouWill as anything but another carbon copy of that model. Somehow his 1.9 points and .3 assists in limited action his rookie year didn’t dispel that notion. I thought for sure we had picked up a bootleg Willie Green, and given my feelings on the original Willie Green this was not a situation which enthralled me.
Even when we sent him to the D-League (not a minute too soon) and he put up 26 and 8 I was confident that was the type of player he was – he had to be the best player on the court, and if he was he would be effective, but if he wasn’t he couldn’t contribute in other aspects of the game. He is undeniably quick, but never used that to be even a plus defender – either as a help guy covering the passing lanes or as a man guy who could give other quick guards problems – and because he’s so weak big PGs could just muscle him up. On defense I envisioned him as an ineffective AI (he still has work to go to dispel this one).
Overall, his game reminded me sort of guard version of Shareef Abdul-Rahim, where for him to be effective he would need to dominate the ball, but he if is going to dominate the ball for your team, that team is in trouble because he’s just not talented enough to lead a team. He's not 'the man' but more problamatically he can't be anything else because his game is so ball oriented.
If you’re noticing a theme here you’re right, I kept on trying to place Louis Williams into a comparison, but every mold I forced him into was a negative one, or at least one which highlighted a part of/role for his game better left out of the spotlight.
Then, while we were watching preseason during the commercial breaks of one of the LCSs, Ru casually mentioned compared him to a poor-man’s Leonardo Barbosa, a comparison that immediately changed how I now and forever will see The Louis Williams.
Barbosa, another quick, high scoring, ball-dominating scoring point guard whose probably never going to be good enough to be ‘the man’ on a team the way his play would dictate. The difference is, of course, that Barbosa is the man on that Suns team, he’s just only the man in select spots - and he plays within a system that is built to be able to facilitate his talents, but thats another topic.
With this comparison in mind I’m ready to start really digging into the legend of Lou Williams.
Louis Williams is more than just an occasional reality-tv show star and good friend of Lil’ Bow Wow (true story), he is also a former four time (!) all-state player in Georgia. Now while all-state Georgia isn't exactly New York, California, or Indiana all-state, it is still definitely all-state, and four times is just insane. He was named their “Mr. Basketball” both his junior and senior years, which is LeBron/Wanny Wags high school shit. He averaged 26.5, 5.5, and 5.5 as a freshmen.
His first dunk was as a 5’7” seventh grader and currently has a vert of over 40 inches.
This is important not just because it gives us Sixers fans something to mention about him when he does something relevant in a game (like when that Euro we drafted won a car by dunking over it, ruben get me a name here) but or because it builds upon his legend, but rather because it means that he has been absolutely murdering people his entire career. He has never not had the mindset to absolutely dominate. When he barks out instructions on the court its not because he’s trying to gain respect, its because he doesn’t know any other way to play.
We all know that LouWill hasn't done anything in the league yet, but everytime he goes down to the D-League he embarrasses people (26, 8, and just vicious embarrassment) and this preseason he's embarrassing people again (he’s been getting by everyone, dunking hard in traffic, and just taking over games late). The fact that not only is he that much better than 2nd tier NBA guys, but also that he clearly has a takeover mentality is an encouraging sign for a 20 year old kid.
This doesn’t mean he’s a finished product at all. In summer leagues this year he got to the line an impressive 12 times a game (and hit 80%) but also averaged 5.4 turnovers per game compared with just 4.7 dimes, but it may mean that he has a role to play in this league, and a high-volume scorer who doesn’t ever let the pressure off the defense is a nice role to play.
Even when we sent him to the D-League (not a minute too soon) and he put up 26 and 8 I was confident that was the type of player he was – he had to be the best player on the court, and if he was he would be effective, but if he wasn’t he couldn’t contribute in other aspects of the game. He is undeniably quick, but never used that to be even a plus defender – either as a help guy covering the passing lanes or as a man guy who could give other quick guards problems – and because he’s so weak big PGs could just muscle him up. On defense I envisioned him as an ineffective AI (he still has work to go to dispel this one).
Overall, his game reminded me sort of guard version of Shareef Abdul-Rahim, where for him to be effective he would need to dominate the ball, but he if is going to dominate the ball for your team, that team is in trouble because he’s just not talented enough to lead a team. He's not 'the man' but more problamatically he can't be anything else because his game is so ball oriented.
If you’re noticing a theme here you’re right, I kept on trying to place Louis Williams into a comparison, but every mold I forced him into was a negative one, or at least one which highlighted a part of/role for his game better left out of the spotlight.
Then, while we were watching preseason during the commercial breaks of one of the LCSs, Ru casually mentioned compared him to a poor-man’s Leonardo Barbosa, a comparison that immediately changed how I now and forever will see The Louis Williams.
Barbosa, another quick, high scoring, ball-dominating scoring point guard whose probably never going to be good enough to be ‘the man’ on a team the way his play would dictate. The difference is, of course, that Barbosa is the man on that Suns team, he’s just only the man in select spots - and he plays within a system that is built to be able to facilitate his talents, but thats another topic.
With this comparison in mind I’m ready to start really digging into the legend of Lou Williams.
Louis Williams is more than just an occasional reality-tv show star and good friend of Lil’ Bow Wow (true story), he is also a former four time (!) all-state player in Georgia. Now while all-state Georgia isn't exactly New York, California, or Indiana all-state, it is still definitely all-state, and four times is just insane. He was named their “Mr. Basketball” both his junior and senior years, which is LeBron/Wanny Wags high school shit. He averaged 26.5, 5.5, and 5.5 as a freshmen.
His first dunk was as a 5’7” seventh grader and currently has a vert of over 40 inches.
This is important not just because it gives us Sixers fans something to mention about him when he does something relevant in a game (like when that Euro we drafted won a car by dunking over it, ruben get me a name here) but or because it builds upon his legend, but rather because it means that he has been absolutely murdering people his entire career. He has never not had the mindset to absolutely dominate. When he barks out instructions on the court its not because he’s trying to gain respect, its because he doesn’t know any other way to play.
We all know that LouWill hasn't done anything in the league yet, but everytime he goes down to the D-League he embarrasses people (26, 8, and just vicious embarrassment) and this preseason he's embarrassing people again (he’s been getting by everyone, dunking hard in traffic, and just taking over games late). The fact that not only is he that much better than 2nd tier NBA guys, but also that he clearly has a takeover mentality is an encouraging sign for a 20 year old kid.
This doesn’t mean he’s a finished product at all. In summer leagues this year he got to the line an impressive 12 times a game (and hit 80%) but also averaged 5.4 turnovers per game compared with just 4.7 dimes, but it may mean that he has a role to play in this league, and a high-volume scorer who doesn’t ever let the pressure off the defense is a nice role to play.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
lets go sixers?
Sorry not to break this one up with pictures team. Maybe in an edit;
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As Summer turns to Autumn many things change here in 9stabsLand: trees’ leaves begin to turn from the Eagles green to the Mets’ fallen and dead; summer ale’s magically become local octoberfests; we get to officially award a ‘C’ for the season (Whoo Jackson); and, of course, I take back up with love a sport I “officially” and unsuccessfully swore off at the end of it’s previous season. In this instance the sport I am swearing off is football (bye week) and the sport I’m picking back up, reservations and all, is pro basketball.
During the NBA playoffs Ru and I debated how to appropriately build a championship team. We argued about style of play, emphasis of position, how and where to allot appropriate amounts of money, what to look for in the draft, etc.
This is relevant not because we came to some clear-cut conclusion – or even because there is some clear-cut conclusion – but rather because we just assumed that the natural discussion to have when discussing the composition of a basketball team is how do players play both with each other and within a given system.
We used the example of the Spurs – who deemed the best way to build a team is to have a defined star, two next-in-line type guys who can win a game by themselves but generally don’t, and fill 4-12 with men who will run through a wall for the team. And the example of the Warriors – who exploit individual talents by running a fast-paced iso game where every man understands that they are expected to take the first good shot they have.
We could have used the example of the old Lake Show teams – get two stars and a group of one-dimensional shooters, rebounders, and defenders; the Suns/Nets – surround a point guard whose good enough to act as a coach on the floor and surround him with athletes; the old Mavs and Blazers teams – established talent at the sake of an alpha dog; the Riley Knicks – a team based around thugs who would beat you to death; the AI Sixers – one star with a team of players who look to him to score all of their points, etc. etc. etc.
All of this (and the unfortunately abrupt ending of the NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies) brings me to the topic of tonight’s lecture: our 2007/2008 Philadelphia 76ers.
As this century of Sixers basketball has shown – and the most recent summer has confirmed – Billy King does not seem to view a basketball team in these terms. It is not that this team has a bad identity, it has no personality at all. This is not a house built without a solid foundation, it is a shack of sticks held together by glue. Jason Smith, a 7 foot white power forward from Colorado is on billboards around Philadelphia. That isn’t a complimentary statement about the team.
For example, our team recently committed a good deal of money into what it imagined to be its emerging cornerstones – Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert – two players whose games are built on using their speed and athleticism to defend well and generate easy buckets (at least before Canada broke Dalembert’s foot). This would seemingly lend itself to a basic teambuilding strategy, i.e. likeminded players and a general emphasis on athletic defense which turns to easy buckets. Instead, we traded AI (a player who certainly could have fit this likeminded mold) for a half-court point guard whose game is built on guile and court knowledge, signed Kyle Korver, a smooth shooter small forward with minus athleticism and worse defense, and Willie Green who if is has a discernible basketball talent it would be “mediocre scorer” and made a move for Reggie Evans, who can only play in the half court and whose next two fast break points are going to be first. All of this and I haven’t even mentioned the Calvin Booth signing, who is neither young, athletic, nor a noted a locker room leader.
This isn’t to say that Andre Miller, Reggie Evans, and Kyle Korver are inherently bad players (Dre is a smart PG, the ball-grabber can hit the boards, and Korver would be a great option in an offense built around an elite big man with good hands) or to say that Dalembert is an inherently good player (he’s not), but rather that they are players who don’t make sense within our system at all.
However, that could be a system in itself, stockpiling assets to use in later trades a la the pre KG Celtics, but it isn’t.
In looking over this summer’s roster moves one thing jumped out at me: the Sixers traded the 30th pick (Petteri Koponen) for the 42nd pick (Derek Byers, who Mo Cheeks decided wasn’t good enough to even dress for the first preseason game!) and the 38th (the hilarious Kyrylo Fesenko) pick to Portland for the 55th pick (Herb Hill). When Billy King put AI on the block he held out strongly for two first rounders, than he took the second of those and moved it straight up (in basketball assets at least, there was a cash exchange) for a second rounder.
He traded down a total of 29 picks and picked up nothing. What is worse is that both Koponen and Fesenko are expected to be stashed in Europe this year, meaning that he traded two real assets for two guys are struggling to get preseason minutes.
In the game “how much would you pay?” I’m not sure if I have an answer to “see Billy King’s draft board.” Did he have one?
All of this is not meant to be solely an attack on the sixers however, and the team does have some positives. Even if talent wise, Miller and Igoudala shouldn’t be your clear cut two best players, they are both positives on both ends of the court and could easily be acceptable 2nd and 3rd options on good basketball teams, and I guess its plausible that the Thad Young/Rodney Carney combination gives us 12/3/3 every night, but when those are the upsides the team may be in trouble.
Deep down I am a hardline sixer fan, and despite all of my grievances I’ll be stating my complaints from the WAC all season, but I am asking for something. Losing I can take, losing philly can take (what we lack in grace we make up for in frequency) but at least give us positive losing. Let us go to war with a bunch of kids and believe that we’re going to be something eventually. And maybe I’m wrong, maybe Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans are taking us to the promise land (quick tip: they’re not), but in the meantime can we please just build a team with a concept?
---
As Summer turns to Autumn many things change here in 9stabsLand: trees’ leaves begin to turn from the Eagles green to the Mets’ fallen and dead; summer ale’s magically become local octoberfests; we get to officially award a ‘C’ for the season (Whoo Jackson); and, of course, I take back up with love a sport I “officially” and unsuccessfully swore off at the end of it’s previous season. In this instance the sport I am swearing off is football (bye week) and the sport I’m picking back up, reservations and all, is pro basketball.
During the NBA playoffs Ru and I debated how to appropriately build a championship team. We argued about style of play, emphasis of position, how and where to allot appropriate amounts of money, what to look for in the draft, etc.
This is relevant not because we came to some clear-cut conclusion – or even because there is some clear-cut conclusion – but rather because we just assumed that the natural discussion to have when discussing the composition of a basketball team is how do players play both with each other and within a given system.
We used the example of the Spurs – who deemed the best way to build a team is to have a defined star, two next-in-line type guys who can win a game by themselves but generally don’t, and fill 4-12 with men who will run through a wall for the team. And the example of the Warriors – who exploit individual talents by running a fast-paced iso game where every man understands that they are expected to take the first good shot they have.
We could have used the example of the old Lake Show teams – get two stars and a group of one-dimensional shooters, rebounders, and defenders; the Suns/Nets – surround a point guard whose good enough to act as a coach on the floor and surround him with athletes; the old Mavs and Blazers teams – established talent at the sake of an alpha dog; the Riley Knicks – a team based around thugs who would beat you to death; the AI Sixers – one star with a team of players who look to him to score all of their points, etc. etc. etc.
All of this (and the unfortunately abrupt ending of the NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies) brings me to the topic of tonight’s lecture: our 2007/2008 Philadelphia 76ers.
As this century of Sixers basketball has shown – and the most recent summer has confirmed – Billy King does not seem to view a basketball team in these terms. It is not that this team has a bad identity, it has no personality at all. This is not a house built without a solid foundation, it is a shack of sticks held together by glue. Jason Smith, a 7 foot white power forward from Colorado is on billboards around Philadelphia. That isn’t a complimentary statement about the team.
For example, our team recently committed a good deal of money into what it imagined to be its emerging cornerstones – Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert – two players whose games are built on using their speed and athleticism to defend well and generate easy buckets (at least before Canada broke Dalembert’s foot). This would seemingly lend itself to a basic teambuilding strategy, i.e. likeminded players and a general emphasis on athletic defense which turns to easy buckets. Instead, we traded AI (a player who certainly could have fit this likeminded mold) for a half-court point guard whose game is built on guile and court knowledge, signed Kyle Korver, a smooth shooter small forward with minus athleticism and worse defense, and Willie Green who if is has a discernible basketball talent it would be “mediocre scorer” and made a move for Reggie Evans, who can only play in the half court and whose next two fast break points are going to be first. All of this and I haven’t even mentioned the Calvin Booth signing, who is neither young, athletic, nor a noted a locker room leader.
This isn’t to say that Andre Miller, Reggie Evans, and Kyle Korver are inherently bad players (Dre is a smart PG, the ball-grabber can hit the boards, and Korver would be a great option in an offense built around an elite big man with good hands) or to say that Dalembert is an inherently good player (he’s not), but rather that they are players who don’t make sense within our system at all.
However, that could be a system in itself, stockpiling assets to use in later trades a la the pre KG Celtics, but it isn’t.
In looking over this summer’s roster moves one thing jumped out at me: the Sixers traded the 30th pick (Petteri Koponen) for the 42nd pick (Derek Byers, who Mo Cheeks decided wasn’t good enough to even dress for the first preseason game!) and the 38th (the hilarious Kyrylo Fesenko) pick to Portland for the 55th pick (Herb Hill). When Billy King put AI on the block he held out strongly for two first rounders, than he took the second of those and moved it straight up (in basketball assets at least, there was a cash exchange) for a second rounder.
He traded down a total of 29 picks and picked up nothing. What is worse is that both Koponen and Fesenko are expected to be stashed in Europe this year, meaning that he traded two real assets for two guys are struggling to get preseason minutes.
In the game “how much would you pay?” I’m not sure if I have an answer to “see Billy King’s draft board.” Did he have one?
All of this is not meant to be solely an attack on the sixers however, and the team does have some positives. Even if talent wise, Miller and Igoudala shouldn’t be your clear cut two best players, they are both positives on both ends of the court and could easily be acceptable 2nd and 3rd options on good basketball teams, and I guess its plausible that the Thad Young/Rodney Carney combination gives us 12/3/3 every night, but when those are the upsides the team may be in trouble.
Deep down I am a hardline sixer fan, and despite all of my grievances I’ll be stating my complaints from the WAC all season, but I am asking for something. Losing I can take, losing philly can take (what we lack in grace we make up for in frequency) but at least give us positive losing. Let us go to war with a bunch of kids and believe that we’re going to be something eventually. And maybe I’m wrong, maybe Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans are taking us to the promise land (quick tip: they’re not), but in the meantime can we please just build a team with a concept?
Sunday, October 7, 2007
week 4 picks / reaction
Ru, right now there is very little I can say I texted my father "why did you have to raise me a philly fan?" today and today I mean that. I love my teams, I'll always love my teams, but I can barely say their names today. Thank god its a bye week as I give my picks ... (without my anecdotes and quotes)
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
they just have to win.
Jax (-2) at KC
Kansas City got their win last week. I refuse to believe the Jags are that bad.
WAS (-3.5) over Dey-twa
3-1 my ass. Any team that we can can hang 56 on can't be that good.
Falcons (+8) over TITANS
I love VY to win, but I hate him to ever cover a +7 spread.
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Andre Johnson back?
PIT (-6) over Seattle
Tomlin has no mercy at home. That and that seahawks stink.
PATS (-16.5) over Cle
I don't believe in this game at all, and if I had to bet I would wager the other way ... but this season I've learned never go on record against Brady and Moss
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS
Another game I think I'm wrong in ... 0 loss teams always come out hard and Wisensomething has lost his team. That said, the rams blow.
Jets (+3.5) over GIANTS
AFC/NFC rule. I hate this game though, which is becoming a theme of the evening.
INDY (-9.5) over tampa
people forget that this Manning is really, really, good.
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
If they don't, all hell breaks loose. Plus Denver's corners don't mean much against Gates and LDT.
Ravens (-3) over NINERS
For all the heat they've been getting, God's defense can still man the fuck up.
Chi (+3) over FAVRE
Green bay just isn't a 5-0 tea, amd Chi isn't bad enough to only have one game
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS
I hate the cowboys, but Trent Edwards sn't ready for prime time at all
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
they just have to win.
Jax (-2) at KC
Kansas City got their win last week. I refuse to believe the Jags are that bad.
WAS (-3.5) over Dey-twa
3-1 my ass. Any team that we can can hang 56 on can't be that good.
Falcons (+8) over TITANS
I love VY to win, but I hate him to ever cover a +7 spread.
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Andre Johnson back?
PIT (-6) over Seattle
Tomlin has no mercy at home. That and that seahawks stink.
PATS (-16.5) over Cle
I don't believe in this game at all, and if I had to bet I would wager the other way ... but this season I've learned never go on record against Brady and Moss
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS
Another game I think I'm wrong in ... 0 loss teams always come out hard and Wisensomething has lost his team. That said, the rams blow.
Jets (+3.5) over GIANTS
AFC/NFC rule. I hate this game though, which is becoming a theme of the evening.
INDY (-9.5) over tampa
people forget that this Manning is really, really, good.
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
If they don't, all hell breaks loose. Plus Denver's corners don't mean much against Gates and LDT.
Ravens (-3) over NINERS
For all the heat they've been getting, God's defense can still man the fuck up.
Chi (+3) over FAVRE
Green bay just isn't a 5-0 tea, amd Chi isn't bad enough to only have one game
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS
I hate the cowboys, but Trent Edwards sn't ready for prime time at all
Saturday, October 6, 2007
More Frustration
Another frustrating end to a Philly sports season, with only the Flyers now to look forward to at all for the next 6 months. But something about this sweep stung worse than I thought it would; it was as frustrating a loss as I've seen since the 2004 NFC championship game against the Panthers.
What does it for me, though, what makes this series hurt especially bad is the Phillies' obstinance in doing things their way, regardless of opponent or situation. This is essentially the same core of guys that couldn't stand Bowa because he actually wanted them to fix their shortcomings, rather than the beloved Charlie, who just tells them to do what they feel comfortable with. In this series, we went against 3 filthy pitchers (including 2 lefties), and made not one adjustment.
Beale, me and you have discussed this before. A few times this year (always after a game in which our bats go silent), I've pointed out how much I wish some of our guys would change their approach at the plate, and occasionally shorten up or try to go oppo. Your point is that we have the highest scoring offense and there's no need to change anything, to which my reply is usually something along the lines of "it works in a long regular season against average pitchers, but might not in a short series against good pitching." Same argument I make for why Burrell is useless, even when he's in a hot streak. Well, in this series we faced good pitching, continued to try to pull everything 500 feet, and we hit .173.
Tonight we struck out 8 times. Not out of the ordinary for us. What bothered me most during the game, and looking it up now it still does, is that our lefty hitters grounded out to 2nd base 7 times. Just the lefty hitters; just to 2nd base. Having hit my fair share of weak grounders to shortstop as a righty, I know that this happens when you try to pull an outside pitch. Usually as simple as that. (Just for kicks, we had 3 hits to the opposite field in the whole series -- including 1 by Hamels). These numbers themselves aren't inherently killers, but what did kill us is that we refused to ever shorten up and put the ball in play, a strategy which would be especially useful against 2 rookies like Morales and Jimenez, who would be easy to frustrate if you can slap a couple of hits even when they make their pitch. You may tell me I'm crazy for suggesting Utley, Jimmy, or Howard shorten up and drive the ball to left, but you are also the same person who would make the argument that a 3pt shooter (or a 3pt shooting team) that has gone cold would be wise to try to get some layups or transition buckets to get going. Or like how Andy Reid -- who rarely ever max protects -- watching his new left tackle getting dominated by a decent D-end would decide to put a tight end out there to help. Of course he never did do that and instead stuck to his guns. The result: our team gave up 12 sacks. Changing one's approach is not an admission of failure, it's a way of getting something ignited when the other team is taking away your normal game.
For example, I remember watching the Tribe completely frustrate Hamels in a game earlier this year by simply taking his changeup and hitting his fastball the other way. Hell, last night they won a playoff game on a walk-off hit in which their cleanup hitter took about a half swing on the deciding hit. The ball Hafner hit went as far in the air as it could have (about 180 feet), given his swing. And it dropped. And his team is up 2-0. Meanwhile, fresh in my mind is the Rockies pitchers throwing us hard stuff in and slow stuff down and away, and our hitters trying to pull all of it. That can work against mediocre pitching, but will get you swept in the playoffs. Until our players realize that they aren't God's gift to hitting and decide to devote themselves to doing whatever possible to get on base, we will continue to struggle against good pitching in a short series.
What does it for me, though, what makes this series hurt especially bad is the Phillies' obstinance in doing things their way, regardless of opponent or situation. This is essentially the same core of guys that couldn't stand Bowa because he actually wanted them to fix their shortcomings, rather than the beloved Charlie, who just tells them to do what they feel comfortable with. In this series, we went against 3 filthy pitchers (including 2 lefties), and made not one adjustment.
Beale, me and you have discussed this before. A few times this year (always after a game in which our bats go silent), I've pointed out how much I wish some of our guys would change their approach at the plate, and occasionally shorten up or try to go oppo. Your point is that we have the highest scoring offense and there's no need to change anything, to which my reply is usually something along the lines of "it works in a long regular season against average pitchers, but might not in a short series against good pitching." Same argument I make for why Burrell is useless, even when he's in a hot streak. Well, in this series we faced good pitching, continued to try to pull everything 500 feet, and we hit .173.
Tonight we struck out 8 times. Not out of the ordinary for us. What bothered me most during the game, and looking it up now it still does, is that our lefty hitters grounded out to 2nd base 7 times. Just the lefty hitters; just to 2nd base. Having hit my fair share of weak grounders to shortstop as a righty, I know that this happens when you try to pull an outside pitch. Usually as simple as that. (Just for kicks, we had 3 hits to the opposite field in the whole series -- including 1 by Hamels). These numbers themselves aren't inherently killers, but what did kill us is that we refused to ever shorten up and put the ball in play, a strategy which would be especially useful against 2 rookies like Morales and Jimenez, who would be easy to frustrate if you can slap a couple of hits even when they make their pitch. You may tell me I'm crazy for suggesting Utley, Jimmy, or Howard shorten up and drive the ball to left, but you are also the same person who would make the argument that a 3pt shooter (or a 3pt shooting team) that has gone cold would be wise to try to get some layups or transition buckets to get going. Or like how Andy Reid -- who rarely ever max protects -- watching his new left tackle getting dominated by a decent D-end would decide to put a tight end out there to help. Of course he never did do that and instead stuck to his guns. The result: our team gave up 12 sacks. Changing one's approach is not an admission of failure, it's a way of getting something ignited when the other team is taking away your normal game.
For example, I remember watching the Tribe completely frustrate Hamels in a game earlier this year by simply taking his changeup and hitting his fastball the other way. Hell, last night they won a playoff game on a walk-off hit in which their cleanup hitter took about a half swing on the deciding hit. The ball Hafner hit went as far in the air as it could have (about 180 feet), given his swing. And it dropped. And his team is up 2-0. Meanwhile, fresh in my mind is the Rockies pitchers throwing us hard stuff in and slow stuff down and away, and our hitters trying to pull all of it. That can work against mediocre pitching, but will get you swept in the playoffs. Until our players realize that they aren't God's gift to hitting and decide to devote themselves to doing whatever possible to get on base, we will continue to struggle against good pitching in a short series.
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