Monday, October 29, 2007

Vince Young: Troublemaker




As I was going through this week's picks I came across several paragraphs that perhaps necessitate their own post. Seeing as I missed the entire picks section, figured that this could be one of those precious times when need, fact, and happenstance may in fact couple. Without further ado, the first of many “sorry I missed the picks” posts. We’ll start at the end.

Vince Young (goldenboy, hero of 9stabs) is a troublemaker. I’ll document document:

VY grew up a child prodigy in Texas, and like many prodigies in the Lone Star his athletic ability made it so that it would be conceivable (at the least) that his star shown so bright that it overwhelmed whatever problems may have existed within his championship-filled dome. He was the national player-of-the-year in high school and ranked as the #1 recruit in all the land so for a long time now he’s been the man and treated as such.

This is hard to label narrowly as a problem – if it is one it is certainly more so to the systematic deficiencies in the American psyche than to VY as an individual – but it should not be discounted that the man has been treated as a hero wherever he goes, and in large part rightly so. VY as an individual wins games, and VY as an individual should be judged on said ability to get the job done.

However, I couple that truefact with the separate truefact that If I – a young man with all the advantages advantage can buy and a support system that truly did (and does) support me – grew up loved by millions, needed by millions more I’m confident that my ego would be placed inappropriately above its pre-selected natural level (also abnormally high). If for the first twenty years of my life every last minute drive depended on me, every time a kitten was stuck in a tree I would be looked at, every time a cheerleader spun and jumped they did so for me me, every time a state that calls itself a nation needed a hero they would point their momentarily egalitarian eyes towards ME, and every time that happened I delivered I would make mistakes.

… but, as many a great prophet has spoken: “it be not the fuckupish that we must focus, but rather the fuckup him(or her … just kidding, its always him)self whose scorn our eyes focus hath earned.” With this is mind, arguably the greatest singular talent of my generation doesn’t get it.

Out of College Vince Young scored about 0 on the wonderlic. I’ve seen the wonderlic – you’ve seen the wonderlick – it doesn’t take a genius to understand that it doesn’t take a genius. A good score is an indication of a history of informed understanding; a bad score is an indication of a lack of understanding – the test is more about knowledge than it is about smarts. I have an academic history that suggests I’m passably smart and a basis of sports knowledge that (I hope) shows that I’m consciously knowledge, I know the difference. They aren’t testing one’s ability to learn as much as they are testing one’s ability to study. A good score is therefore a proper indication of proper study, with similar correlation stats in reverse.

Yet still, a man who reads defenses like Clinton reads polls failed the test. Someone who has an athletic history that suggests he’s not a moron – and holds a rhetorical sense of speech that suggests he cares – straight up failed. That’s a problem.

As I’ve mentioned before, the quarterback position in the National Football League is the most scrutinized place to play in the world. You’re my QB? Win. No exceptions. It’s a hard mandate.

A 6 on the wonderlic suggests that VY might not get this. Poor scores mean less about intelligence than it does his preparation and understanding of what his priorities need to be. QB1 is not just an athletic designation, it’s a life role. These roles require study and prep. 6 months ago I thought was tricked into thinking that skill was enough.

Then, this preseason, VY got suspended. The reason itself seemed trivial (he missed curfew, opting to sleep at a location of his choosing) but what it revealed said something – the Franchise who didn’t get that the media means something just gave a fuckyou to the franchise who pays the bills that the media is buying. The titans may have the briefcase, but VY pulled the shotgun.

Still, the young man can play ball, and the young man is a winner and if said young man is said “winner” it becomes a lot easier to ignore the injustice of sticking stick up boys. Afterall, the thug in question is our boy who took Leinhart’s illegitimate children’s first claim to fame (being conceived) and made it his own personal coming out party.

BUT and I capitalized that for a reason, MVP got cocky. This isn’t about that Madden – the curse that VY brought upon himself is the curse of ignorance. This young man, a smart, competent, capable young man with seemingly infinite talent has a weakness – he just can’t avoid those self-inflicted gun shots to the foot.

For years we avoided it – the wonderlic doesn’t matter, his USC win means more than an entire college career – and I’m certainly part of the “we” I bless – but that’s not where it ends.

When Donovan McNabb brought up race and Quarterbacking (if you care you see below for my analysis) VY was asked his thoughts and basically said “not an issue.” Young both showed disregard for the fact that his job as a black QB1 may be under less media scrutiny because of the increase in black professionals (like, say McNabb). His comments were insensitive to the subject but more than that they weren’t well thought out. With the controversy what it was at the time the question shouldn’t have come as a surprise, the fact that his comments suggested it did is troublesome.

Then, last week, after he goes down with an injury he pouts on the sideline away from his team (as they win!) and offers quotes after the game asking “why wouldn’t [he] have wanted to play?” Short answer: your team won, you shouldn’t have wanted to change anything.

We’re not at the point where any of this is a major problem yet, but with the recent Chad Johnson whining and needing out in mind we may be at the point were it would be wise to start documenting what could be the next great NFL head case.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Week 8 picks

Since i'm doing so poorly (and it's already 1:00), i don't want to even try to justify these picks. so here are my week 8 picks, sans explanation.

(Last week: 3-11; Season: 13-29-2)

ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Cleveland

Detroit (+6) at CHICAGO

Indy (-7) at CAROLINA

NY Giants (-10) vs. Miami

Oakland (+7) at TENNESSEE

Philly (-1) at MINNESOTA

CINCY (+4) vs Pittsburgh

JETS (-3) vs. Buffalo

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. Houston

TAMPA (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

SAN FRAN (+2) vs. New Orleans

NEW ENGLAND (-15) vs. Washington

DENVER (-3) vs. Green Bay

Thursday, October 25, 2007

want to make a lot of money?

rockies in 6, even after that 13-1 loss. I have numbers (well, theories) to back it up, but why ruin the fun? (alright, one quick one ... 3 teams in the history of major league baseball have lost game 1 by 10 runs or more, all 3 have won the series so long story short this one ain't over)

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Why We Should Never Trade AI, vol. 386

The Sixers recently outright released Derrick Byers, the G/F out of Vandy who doubled as the 42nd pick in the 2007 NBA draft.

What makes this ludicris is not that we cut a decent 2nd rounder who at least looked like a feasible rotation guy in school, but rather that by cutting Byers the Sixers essentially cut THE main reason why we made the AI trade with Denver instead of another team.

During the trade negotiations Billy King was adamant about obtaining “two first rounders!” seemingly regardless of where in the first round those picks would fall (I wonder if he understands the basic concept of the NBA draft or just assumes all first rounders are JUST LIKE the others).

This means that he accepted the 21st and the 30th pick instead of say, Boston’s, Atlanta’s, New York’s, or Golden State’s (other popularly mentioned destinations for the Answer) and this says nothing of young players who might already be good (espn was suggesting at the time packages built around Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Channing Frye, or a package of Golden State young guys – Biendris, Monta Ellia, that foreign shooting guard who plays some D).

But no, Billy held onto his need to get two first rounders, than traded the second one of those (Petteri Koppenan) for the a second rounder (Byers) who he then had to cut because Byers wouldn’t play in Europe for us. Meanwhile, the 19 year old swiss guard would have ... shocking how it turned out that a 19 year old would accept staying in his foreign country while a 23 year old from Memphis TN might be more reluctant to the idea.

William King may be an excellent person, he may have solid morals, he may be generally smart, likeable, friendly, etc. but the man does not know how to run a basketball organization one bit, unfortunatlely, it seems that the Sixers are figuring this out the long, hard way.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Week 7 picks

After a 2-week hiatus, i'm back with my picks. Expect a big week.

(Season record: 10-18-2 vs James: 17-24-3)

EAGLES (-5.5) vs. Bears
Even though I think we'll probably win by about 3, i still gotta go with the team that I think is gonna win. Reading the Inquirer this morning, I was shocked by how impressive the Eagles numbers are this year. For example, we have more points, first downs, TD's, yards, rushing yards (by a HUGE margin), passing yards and more INTs than our opponents. More than anything, I think this is a compliment of how good our defense has been this year, despite my constant complaints that we no longer have a dominating D that takes the ball away. The reality is, we're probably somewhere in between the mediocre D that I thought we were and the great D that the players and media are saying we've been. Still, considering we have 3 new starting LBs, are missing our 2 best players (Dawk and Lito), being a top 10 ranked D is pretty damn good. If our offense can become even a shade of what it has been the last 4 or 5 years, we should be ok (brutal schedule not withstanding).

Baltimore (-3) at BUFFALO

Mainly because Buffalo stinks. And I don't trust Trent Edwards at all against the Ravens D.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT
I don't care that Detroit is playing at home, and they're much better in their dome. As long as their defense is involved, I have a hard time picking them as favorites.

HOUSTON (+1.5) vs. Tennessee
I don't particularly care about the Vince Young-Houston history. I still think Houston is legit this year (despite the overwhelming evidence from the last 2 weeks against that) and Tennessee has not impressed me at all this year. Plus, VY is banged up and if Kerry Collins is involved, this is a slam dunk.


MIAMI (+16) vs. New England
More than anything, I like the under 51.5 total points. Things have been a little too easy for New England, Miami ALWAYS plays Brady well, and Belichick will probably make sure to do just enough to win this game without showing too much. And given Brady's struggles against Miami and Maroney's return, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more running, and thus fewer points.

San Fran (+9) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are so poorly coached that this just reaks of a game that the Giants make way closer than it should be. They'll pull it out, but it will be ugly and they'll have some sloppy special teams plays and turnovers.

SAINTS (-8.5) vs. Atlanta
Never liked Leftwich, at least since he left Marshall. He was good back then. I don't think New Orleans is any good, but at home this should be an easy win against an even worse team

Arizona (+8.5) at WASHINGTON
I have no logical justification for this pick, other than that the Cardinals seem to play better with Warner (and he may suit up today, albeit with a big arm brace). Also, I feel Washington sleepwalking through this one, and maybe even getting upset.

OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
Oakland playing at home should be good enough to pull this one out. 10-7 final.

CINCY (-6.5) vs NY Jets
The Bengals get right against a really bad team. Kellen Clemens gets in the game because of a really bad starting quarterback.

Minny (+9) at DALLAS
Seems like I'm just picking against the NFC East here, but this is just too many points against a team that can really run the ball and plays decent defense. Then again, the Vikes could be looking ahead to their monster showdown against the Birds next week and play a sloppy game.

SEATTLE (-8.5) vs. Rams
God, what a crappy matchup. This will be an incredibly boring game, with a lot more turnovers than TDs. But the Rams blow, and are even worse without Steven Jackson.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at DENVER
This is my least confident pick, only because the Steelers lost to Arizona on the road in a game they really should have won. BUT, Denver is missing 2 d-linemen, 2 o-linemen, and Jay Cutler is playing quarterback. So Pittsburgh should run all over them and sack Cutler at least 5 times.

JAX (+3) vs Indy
It won't be as bad as last year's 44-17 game, and Indy will definitely be motivated by that game and by the fact that they are getting ZERO credit this year. With those intangibles stated, from a purely football standpoint, the Jags can really exploit the Colts' awful run D and they match up ok on D (as well as a team can against Manning and Co.). Also, I have memories of Jacksonville's dominating Monday night performance a few years back, which gives me some hope here.

Friday, October 19, 2007

PICKS! PICKS!

Alright, if memory serves I recovered admirably from a poor first couple weeks to DOMINATE the picks two weeks ago, before taking my bye last week. That display was not nearly as impressive as this current one though, I’m pretty confident I’m pulling off the rare sweep. Without further ado:


MIA (-16.5) over New England
Confident: Trap game after the big Dallas win. Plus NE is on the road against the only team ever to have gone undefeated and always seem to play the other undefeated tough. Brady sucks at Miami (218 yards and 2 TD in two games last year combined last year, and 312 with 3 picks the year before). Ronnie Brown has been a monster, a heavy dose of him this week should at least keep the NE offense off the field a bit. Also, I feel like I’m the only guy in America who likes the Chambers trade from the Dolphins end. Not only do they pick up a 2nd rounder (great value) but they get rid of a veteran whose not going to be happy there and replace his touches with a kid whose going to think this weekend is the superbowl.

Plus Miami might be nuts enough not to get blown away. Check out this quote from linebacker Channing Crowder: "I don't think we should be any underdog, I don't think the team's that much better than us."

I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but this game is not going to decided by over two touchdowns.

Hesitant: Miami is awful and the Pats are excellent. No team plays the disrespect card better than the Pats and some guy named Channing Crowder just called them out. NE is 6-0 against the spread and I think just picked Miss Cleo over Tom Brady.


Tampa Bay (-2) over DEY-TWA
Confident: I just can’t get that ‘56’ out of my head, I honestly might have to pick against Detroit all season.

Hesitant: This is the type of game that is determined by the style of play, if the ‘under’ comes up I think so does TB, if its ‘over’ I think it’s the Lions – that means that I’m assuming that Tampa Bay can come into Detroit without their workhouse (Cadillac) and impose their style of play.


San Fran (-9) over THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Confident: the NYFG just played MNF football again and with San Fran than Miami before the bye I can see this game being a bit of a trap. Record aside, I’m not sold on this giants team being any good, plus both of their running backs are banged up – both Ward and Jacobs have bad ankles.

Hesitant: The Niners safeties both get beat deep, and Plax has been a monster this year so I expect him to go off and if they get up early its not like Trent Dilfer is going to be leading a ferocious comeback.

WAS (-7.5) over Arizona
Confident: Arizona is a mess, Washington’s D is legitimately good, Tim Rattey isn’t. Jason Campell just might be, Arizona’s second leading rusher is Matt Leinhart.

Hesitant: I wish the line was a point lower – I think Wisenhunt is going to try to grind this game out, and giving up a touchdown seem like a lot, especially against a team that hasn’t gotten any touchdowns from its receivers this year. I almost talked myself out of this pick.

Atl (-8) over N.O.
Confident: I’ve always been irrationally favorable towards Byron Leftwich, plus when I was guessing this line I was off by WAY too much. I just think New Orleans might stink. I know its an awful game, but I think I’d really enjoy watching these bums play. Fun fact: Jerious Norwood has half of the carries that Warrick Dunn has (82 to 41) but only 30 less yards.

Hesitant: New Orleans may stink, but Atl definitely does stink.


BUFFALO (-3) over BMore
Confident: Buffalo in Buffalo isn’t going to roll over, not with all those Canadians supporting them. Plus there is talk in BMore about Ogden being out for the year and it seems like that entire team is banged up.

Hesitant: Rex Ryan can scheme his ass off and God’s linebacker, Ed Reed, Bart Scot, T. Suggs and the gang used to eat rookie QBs whole. If they get that back it could be a long day.


Ten (-1) at HOUSTON
Confident: V.Young may never lose at Houston: he’s a gamer, its his hometown, and they passed on him for Mario Williams.

Hesitant: he might be hurt, which throws off their entire weeks gameplan. As Mawae, their center put it, “its not like they’re going to run the option with Kerry Collins in there.” But they do have to practice it.


OAK (+3) over Kansas City

Confident: Oakland is the shit! Kansas City is actually leading that division, and that’s not going to keep up.

Hesitant: not Hesitant, which surely means I’m going to lose.

Jets (-6) over CINCI
Confident: Often times when a QB is on the ropes they respond with a not-awful game, this is Chad Pennington’s time for that not-awful game.

Hesitant: The JetsJetsJets played an awful game and had an awful gameplan last week, they are not to be trusted. I’m picking a road-dog? Cincy always finishes at .500, meaning they need to start winning now to get there.

SEATTLE (+8) over St. Louis
Confident: I'm not, they both stink.

Hesitant: I lost all my notes on this game, so I'm just writing this instead.

PHILLY (+5) over Chi
Confident: I’m sticking with my man Winston. Plus we always get better as the year goes along, and this year is certainly going along.

Hesitant: That line is WAY too high, our starting right tackle, who has started 183 consectutive games, hurt himself falling off a table, this may not be our year. Devin Hester is really scary.

Minn (-9.5) at DAL
Confident: A team with a good running game and a solid D should never lose by nine and a half points. Plus T.O. is whining again (this week’s pet peeve: why isn’t he getting called out for this week’s antics? Saying “I’m not going to complain even though we should be throwing it deep more often and finding ways to get me the ball” IS complaining!) and Romo’s a jerk.

Hesitant: Any and everyone can pass on the Vikings, which is bad.

Pitt (+3.5) at DEN

Confident: Champ and Bly can’t stop the run. Simeon Rice (who plays for Denver this year, who knew?) is openly complaining in their papers and wishes he didn’t have to play there. No home field advantage because the Rockies have taken that town over. Javon Walker is out

Hesitant: I’m not, this one’s going to be a blowout.

Indy (+3) at JAX
Confident: Indy is really, really good and not getting any respect or attention because the Pats just may be better. Indy shows up in big regular season games (I’m still of the camp that Manning folds in the playoffs AND that he folded last year and the team won despite him in the playoffs), David Garrard is due for a INT?

Hesitant: Indy lost 44-17 at Jacksonville last year.

so this might not be our year

yikes, our starting RT breaks his ass falling off a table:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3070678

on the plus side I have unreasonable optimism this week (picks done, comments being added, wait on that)