1. I will grant you that "drive and kick" is probably a misnomer for Warriors ball, although many of their 3s in this series are coming off of penetration. Still, my ultimate point about taking lots of quick shots and pushing the ball to try to get layups stands.
2. I ignored free throws on purpose -- always a detriment to an argument in favor of shooting 3s, especially in the NBA where you can throw your body around get fouls called every time (AI and Wade have made careers out of it) -- but you also ignored one of my points. The type of philosophy that I subscribe to (and that Nelly, D'Antoni, and Beilein apparently also believe in) is not solely based on 3s. Frankly, I'd prefer a layup every time to a 3, but the idea is to always get one of the two. This simply means less mid-range one-on-one, which is a staple for most crappy teams' offenses in the NBA.
3. Still, I love that you pointed out the free throw aspect and tried to build an argument around it. And if that argument were backed up by any stats, it would be a good one. Unfortunately, it isn't. Guess who finished dead last in FT attempts this year? The Suns. Guess who finished 1st? The Kings, who last I checked were atrocious. 9 out of 16 playoff teams finished in the bottom half of the league in FT attempts. And among the 7 who finished in the top half were such heavyweights as Utah (#2 in the NBA, 1st round exit coming tonight), Denver (#3, 1st round exit), Washington (#4, swept in the 1st round), Orlando (#7, swept in the 1st round), and the Lakers (#9, 1st round exit). Needless to say, every one of those teams lost in the playoffs to a team that attempts fewer FTs per game. And just to hammer home my point, Memphis (#5), the Knicks (#6) and Atlanta (#10) were all among the top 10 in the league in FT att per game. That's quite a foursome when you include Sacramento. Making shots in the NBA is far more important than taking and making FTs. It's as simple as that.
4 ... or maybe it isn't that simple. Take a look at this year's 3-point shooting stats. You'll find some interesting stats (which I don't even need to manipulate at all to prove my point). The top 8 teams in 3s Attempted all made the playoffs, and overall 11 of the top 15 are playoff teams. The top 9 teams in 3s Made all made the playoffs, and again, 11 of the top 15 were playoff teams. In the playoffs alone, the top 7 in 3s Made all won/will win their 1st round series. Yet, to prove my point even more, both of these are better indicators than 3-pt % (which the casual fan would think to be most important). 7 of the top 10 are playoff teams, as are 9 of the top 15. But Boston and Memphis (the league's 2 worst teams), were #6 and 7, respectively in %. On top of that, 3-Pointers Attempted or Made is even a better indicator of regular season success than overall shooting % (even I was surprised by that). What does all this mean? Shoot more threes, and you're more likely to win. It isn't even essential that you make all of them. Combine this with the fact that FT makes and attempts have no predictive validity as to a team's wins and I think I'm right.
5. Also, a few loose ends to tie up. I assume you were talking about the Warriors' playoff numbers, because they finished 4th in the NBA in assists per game during the regular season (23.8), while Dallas finished 24th (19.9). And you misinterpreted the other part of my argument -- or you stopped reading halfway through -- which is that I conceded that a run-and-gun system has not yet won a championship (maybe the Suns will help my argument out this year). I would merely like to see more crumby NBA franchises like the Celtics, Sixers, Hawks, Sonics, etc. who have no semblance of a big man, running these kinds of offenses. If they try to play the style of Dallas or San Antonio, they'll get murdered, but mixing it up, upping the tempo and creating more possessions could give them a chance to compete, albeit without having a realistic shot at a championship. And my ultimate reason for even bothering to write about this topic is not that I think it's a surefire way to win a championship, but rather that I'm glad to see Golden State and Phoenix proving wrong people like you and the Sports Guy who think that crazy college ball isn't real basketball. It can work, both in college and in the NBA, especially in a tournament or playoff series when you can do serious damage by getting hot for 4 or 5 games.
Thursday, May 3, 2007
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