Week 9 NFL picks and Sixers thoughts

Now that I have some free time on a Saturday and the college football slate right now includes Penn-Princeton, Delaware-James Madison, Syracuse-Pitt, and Penn St-Purdue, I'm actually gonna spend some time on my NFL picks and start to redeem myself. Currently, the record shows that Beale leads me in the picks with a record of 22-33-3 to my 19-36-2, but we've both gotten off to worse starts than the Bulls (home-opening loss to the Sixers?). Maybe putting in a little thought and research into these picks will change things around.

And for the record, I've been pleasantly surprised by the Sixers so far. They held their own against two supposedly good teams on the road and they're showing some good signs: they've actually grasped the fact that they are meant to be a running team; Andre Miller has been willing to get out on the break; and Iguodala is already looking like the player some thought he would be (23 4th quarter points in 2 games, as well as great D toward the end of the Chicago game). Once he becomes a better ball-handler (still by far the weakest part of his game) and more confident shooting the ball, it looks like he can become a more-athletic, better-defensive,worse-1-on-1 version of Paul Pierce. he's already got the Truth's passing skills and competitiveness, and will be a far better defender and finisher around the rim. If only we'd locked him like we should have last week, instead of now being forced to match a WAY bigger offer at the end of this season than we would have had to give him this offseason. Oh, and one more encouraging stat: through 26 total minutes, my man Lou Williams has yet to commit a single turnover. Granted, he's only averaging 3.5 pts and 2.5 assists, but he's done a fine job of running the second unit without getting out of control.

Now, onto my improved NFL picks for Week 9:

EAGLES (+3) vs. Dallas

I just told Beale a few nights ago that I guessed this line would be closer to -5.5 before they came out with the lines, and that if I were still betting, I would definitely pick Dallas considering how low the line is. Since then, though, I got a ticket to the game on Sunday night and with me in the stands, there is no way they lose this game. For my career going to Eagles games, they are 4-2 and the 2 losses were by 2 and 3 points, respectively, on opposing teams' game-ending field goals. So given that logic, even if we lose this game, it will be by 2 or 3 points.

As mediocre as this team has been so far, we have (with only 1 exception) played Dallas well the last 5 years, and we always play them tough at home. Even when we stunk 2 years ago, we had them beat at home before McNabb threw that awful pick to Roy "I pray that teams don't throw at me" Williams and Reggie Brown dropped a wide open last minute pass from Mike McMahon that would have given us an easy field goal to win. And we frustrated the hell out of Romo last year in Dallas (14-29, 141, 1 TD, 2 INT), which I think we can do again the way our D-ends are playing and with Dawk back. Both teams have been good defensively against the run, average against the pass (meaning the ball will be in the air A LOT on Sunday), and both offenses have moved the ball decently (only the Eagles haven't been able to score inside the Red Zone, which I actually think is one of those fluky stats that can change suddenly game-to-game). So, ultimately I think it'll come down to the emotion of the crowd, and whichever team makes that big play or 2, which we seem to always do against Dallas in Philly. Even though the betting pick would probably be Dallas, I like us 27-24 in an upset.

Washington (-3.5) at NY JETS

This Jets team is awful, and Clemens will make too many mistakes for them to win this game. Washington should be embarrassed after having the score run up on them like that, and even though this will likely be an ugly game, I like the Skins. They rarely play pretty ball anyway, and with a good possession QB, a half-decent running game, very good TE, and a stout defense that also takes the ball away and scores (aside from the N.E. game against the best offense in NFL history, they've given up under 15 pts per game), they are built to win low-scoring, ugly games.

KANSAS CITY (-2) vs. Green Bay

This was a tough game for me to call, since my instincts tell me that KC blows and should always be bet against, especially when they're giving points. However, the Chiefs have actually started playing pretty good football and can probably sense that they really have a chance to take control of a division that they're already tied for the lead in. Neither team can run the ball at all so we can expect a lot of passing, but K.C. has been better against the pass (opposing QBs have a rating 10 pts lower against KC than against GB) and they take the ball away more. I know the Pack just won a road game at an AFC West opponent who, just like KC, has historically had a huge home-field advantage. But it's tough to take 2 long trips in a row, and the Pack have had a short week to prepare.

Also, some Vegas trends to point out: in the last 2 years, KC is 2-0 ATS after the bye against NFC teams (outscoring teams 69-21 in those 2 games); in the last 3 years, they are 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records; they're 13-5 ATS in home games over that span. Now, some numbers go in GB's favor: they are 12-7 ATS in road games over the last 3 years and KC is only 2-8 ATS after 2 straight wins. But with all those numbers, the most telling thing to me is that in Vegas the Pack are getting 70% of the action, yet the Linemakers lowered them to -105 with the spread (WITHOUT shifting the line). This means that even though the money is going to GB, they are encouraging even more action toward them, a sign that Vegas likes KC here.


Arizona (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY

I am really not sold on this Tampa team, especially with how poorly Garcia has played the last 2 weeks and how poorly Gruden has coached. First off, I also love Adrian Wilson. And that Zona offense has enough weapons to throw up 24 on Tampa, which will win this game. They're similar defensively, but Zona right now has the better running game, and this Tampa D cannot stop the run. Also, Arizona is 5-2 ATS, and 5-0 as an underdog (4-0 as a 3.5-9.5 pt dog also) to Tampa's 4-4 ATS. And the Cards had their bye last week, which I like.

TENNESSEE (-4) vs. Carolina

I actually think is gonna be a blowout. I would have had this as a 6 or 7 point spread, given the fact that David Carr will be starting for Carolina. Granted, Carolina has been a very good underdog team (3-1 ATS), but they're also 0-2 ATS against the AFC South, and this game is at Tennessee. Also, David Carr is a whopping 2-8 lifetime against the Titans, with both wins coming in 2004 against a putrid, 5-11 Tenn team. Thought you should know that.

San Fran (+3.5) at ATLANTA

Since these teams are equally awful, and their ATS numbers are both extremely mediocre, I'll take the team that at least has 1 OK number going for it. Amazingly enough, the Niners are 5-1 ATS in games in domes the last 3 years. That's enough for me. As is the fact that they don't have Joey Harrington playing QB for them.

Jacksonville (+3) at NEW ORLEANS

Very hard for me to pick a team with Quinn Gray starting for it, but they do enough of the little things for me to pick them against a team that I still don't think is very good. Even including their good year last year, New Orleans has been bad at home (4-11 ATS), while Jax has been a respectable 11-9 road team. The only thing I don't like is that the Jags are a running team and NO has actually been very good against the run (only 3.6 ypc against the run). Still, though, I think this game comes to Jacksonville being a team that does not turn it over (+4 in TO margin) and the Saints being one that does (-9 in TO margin). Jacksonville manages the game and forces enough turnovers to win this one, or at least make it very close. Still, I'm wavering because I could also see the Saints getting out to a big lead, meaning Quinn Gray would have to throw.

DETROIT (-3) vs. Denver

At first I had Denver in this one, but I've decided this week to actually look at how teams have done against the spread, instead of using only my own subjective feelings (as I usually do). I still think Detroit is mediocre, but Denver is just as bad. They can't stop the run, and their offense really has no playmakers anymore, aside from Marshall. They're also 1-6 ATS, and 1-2 as a dog, whereas Detroit is 4-2 ATS and 2-0 at home. They can put up a lot of points, and I just don't think Denver's offense is good enough anymore to outscore them in a shootout.

Cincy (-1) at BUFFALO

Cincy has to win eventually. I'll keep picking them until they do. I don't care that Buffalo is 5-2 ATS to Cincy's 2-4. There may not be a ton of offense in this game, but even in the bad weather in Buffalo, you can still hit big plays, and that's what Cincy will do.

San Diego (-7) at MINNY

San Diego is just a much better team. 2 great rush defenses, but you can definitely throw on the Vikings (worst pass D in the NFL), which San Diego can now do with Chambers in town. San Diego is starting to destroy people, and on top of that, they are historically a GREAT team in domes (how about 21-6 ATS in dome games since 1992, in one of the most obscure stats I'll ever drop). And Minny has not beaten the AFC, going 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons.

CLEVELAND (-1) vs. Seattle

I always like the way the Browns play at home, and surprisingly enough, the Browns have the advantage in Vegas numbers not just this year, but also in the last few years. Over the last 3 years, they have a winning ATS record across the board in EVERY category this game fits into (November, NFC opponent, grass field, playing against teams with winning records, home games, home favorite, etc, etc.), whereas Seattle has been a really mediocre team in the categories this game fits into (non-conference, November, coming off Division game, underdog, road dog, etc). Also, this Cleveland offense is beyond legit. All those high draft picks on offensive players these last few years are paying off, and let's face it: Seattle kind of stinks. They don't do anything well. They're in the middle of the league in every conceivable category, and basically just have the saving grace of playing in the NFC West, which is absolutely horrid.

Houston (+3) at OAKLAND

These teams are both awful ATS, so I'm not gonna even try to get into any of those numbers. What this game comes down to to me, is Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, and I think Sage and the surprisingly potent Houston offense (4th in the NFL) will put up too many points for McCown to deal with. The only cool matchup here is that Oakland does ok against the pass and terrible against the run, but Houston never runs. So, maybe this will end up being a close game, which is even more reason for me to take the points.

Baltimore (+9) at STEELERS

Tough call for me. Division rivalry and Baltimore usually plays the Steelers tough (or just beats them). In fact, I just switched my pick after writing those first 2 sentences. These teams are 1-2 in defense (interestingly, the Pats and Colts are 3-4, respectively, so there are some good matchups), but Baltimore is giving up a lot more points. Still, I tend to think that's because the Baltimore O is awful and gives up the ball to the other team in good field position. This Baltimore D also doesn't take the ball away like they used to, but they still have more takeaways than Pittsburgh. Basically, I think when everything is said and done, the Steelers will win this game, but it'll probably be closer than 9 points. This pick is definitely subject to change, though, especially considering the Steelers' absurd numbers ATS as a favorite (5-2 in '07, 16-6 the last 3 years, and 70-43 the last 15 years). That franchise covers as favorites like it's their job.

COLTS (+5.5) vs. New England

Funny, I didn't even realize these teams were playing each other. I mean, I haven't heard much about this game this week. I think I caught a little piece about it on Versus, but you would think there would be more hype for a game that involves 2 of the best guys in the league at their position: Gostkowski vs. Vinatieri, Round 3. So far, Adam's gotten him, 2 games to none, so this is a big rematch for Steven. Frankly, I think Vinatieri's due for a big game, making it 3-0 lifetime against his New England counterpart.


In all seriousness, though, I have had a hard time getting over the Colts -- a 7-0 team coming off a Super Bowl win and STILL improved -- being such a big home underdog. I don't care who they're playing, or how good this New England offense is. Both teams have been playing great: NE and Indy are 1 and 3 respectively in offense, 3 and 4 respectively in defense, and both are tied for first with a +11 TO margin. In terms of gambling, they've both been absurdly good ATS, this year and the past few. The only real difference this year is that Belichick is an asshole and runs up the score, whereas Dungy is a good Christian who is content with just winning games (just as he's content with marriage only being between a man and a woman and with never allowing scientists to save lives with stem cell research). Hence, New England has been covering games while Indy has just been winning without having to cover every time.

So what does this game come down to? I think just 2 things: 1) the Colts have been flying under the radar and have shown the league absolutely nothing so far this year (they've essentially been saving Harrison all year for this game). They've also gotta be a little annoyed that they're the champs and are undefeated, yet NE is getting all the pub. 2) The Colts are playing at home. If this game were at Foxboro, yeah, I'd pick the Pats. But Indy has a great homefield advantage, which I think will be huge in this game. I like the Colts, 37-34. And hell, why not, they'll win on a missed Gostkowski field goal, reminding everyone that it was Vinatieri, not Brady, winning all those championships.

(P.S. As I watch Notre Dame struggle with Navy -- who comes off a loss to an average 1-AA team -- I can only wonder how much Charlie Weis wishes he hadn't taken that ND job and was still around to coach this New England offense.)