During last night's abomination against Chris Paul and the Hornets not a single sixer put up a positive +/-.
Thats not good.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Thugged Out Book Clubs vol. 1
Fantastic news everybody, Baron Davis started a self-described "thugged out" book club to teach leadership to the warriors :
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/01/SPFVT437M.DTL
for a philadelphia site, we sure are obsessed with Golden State
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/11/01/SPFVT437M.DTL
for a philadelphia site, we sure are obsessed with Golden State
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Check in on 5
So last weekend I went through the trouble of making picks based on my own pre-guessed betting lines, wrote about half of them up and put research into them all. Due to my abysmal picks record thus far I felt a need to change up my method a little bit (even if it means I'm focusing more on gambling, which I don't care about, and less on football – which I do). Anyway, for this week I looked over the game and pre-set what I thought the vegas line would end up being and then made my picks based on a discrepancy between those two.
However, none of this mattered, seeing as Friday morning I visited the black hole that is Kenyon College to celebrate Nick’s birthday. Me and the team began the weekend with drinks when I arrived at 5:30 a.m. Shockingly, I never got around to posting the picks.
If you’re curious about how they turned out the basic guess was this: For eight of the thirteen games my line was +/- 1 point of the actual spread, and my record in the games where my personal line was decent but not fantastic enough to establish a theory.
What has changed since then is that, several obvious big stories aside (ex. The Pats run, Adrian Peterson, the Pack being improbably good, the Chargers possible turnaround, etc), my interest in the league as a whole began to waver.
Nova started their season by waxing some nobody (although with the OSU and Kentucky losses nobodies are looking more and more formidable) and looked sick doing it. The Sixers, although a joke, are my joke, and expectations aside I’m excited to watch the dynamic frontline of Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans take the court.
But before I move on the land of milk and guardplay, I’m going to backtrack to everyone’s favorite stomping ground, namely our QB1, Donovan McNabb.
I have the belief that scandal is widespread across sports, regardless of the game being played. I also believe that generally, these scandals don’t affect the team in question at all, because if the team is winning or on the rise, who cares about a peripheral scandal? Fans are already getting the all information they need to keep their attention, and players can generally handle their own.
If the Eagles are winning the story doesn’t have to be “what’s wrong” because Eagles fans across the area are tuning in to hear about what’s right. It doesn’t matter if a player is upset with his playing time if that player is performing on the field. Those old St. Johns’ teams would get into fistfights in the locker-room before games (true story) but we only heard about them years later because that team was good – no need to focus on the bad to make fans look when fans are already tuned in.
The 90s cowboys teams had the ‘white house’ – where they did piles of drugs on top of piles of strippers – and Troy Aikman was apparently a big gay (Skip Bayless’ words, not mine) but these stories only emerged after their run was over. Why? Because on the meta-level sports writers don’t care why people read them, and sportstalk doesn’t care why people tune in. When teams are winning, that’s all the news that matters. Scandals don’t seem to matter to players either, unless they’re widely talked about it. On the field, professional players tend not to be easily distracted.
However, it is a lot harder to block out something that you hear about ten times a day, everyday. Charles Barkley once said that if an athlete says he doesn’t read the papers, he’s lying; they all know what is going on in and around their team. When fans stop caring about the games and start caring about the players, which happens on losing teams, those questions they have to answer stop being about the games and start being about the players … thus the tangible distraction.
Why this all relates to McNabb is that through this lens we may be able to see how defensive 5 really is.
There is a real possibility that the Philadelphia Eagles QB1 may have never felt truly comfortable in Eagles’ green. That the man dominated in yellow and blue may be an apt symbol for the beginning of the end of his time here. Truth be told, why should he feel comfortable? We booed him before he threw a snap and booed him again after he brought us to the Super Bowl – but it seems that he’s beginning to acknowledge that discomfort in more and more obvious ways.
His mother frequently suggests her own unhappiness with Philadelphia sports fans – bringing up the booing at the draft often and referring to last season’s run with Garcia at the helm as “bittersweet.” At the time we all seemed to brush off these statements as the words of a loving mother who wanted nothing but the best for her child, but the fact that her words weren’t vehemently shot down by 5 himself may be more telling than we gave credit for.
Also, after last season Andy Reid prohibited McNabb from talking to the press. This story still has never been explained, but there are at least two logical explanations.
1. Reid knew that McNabb didn’t want to hear what the press had to say and intervened on QB1’s behalf. This first scenario is not implausible at all; Reid has a long history of covering for his players and if McNabb asked Reid to keep the media away (or Reid just sensed that was McNabb’s wish at the time), it wouldn’t have offended anyone for Reid to have acted upon that impluse. Intuitively this made the most sense to me at the time, but the fact that McNabb hired his own publicist and started his own image-reclamation project without the knowledge or permission of the team during this past offseason may suggest otherwise. This first scenario suggests that McNabb has thin skin and either needed or wanted to be protected from outside criticism; and possibility 2 may be more problematic .
2. Reid knew that he didn’t want the press to hear what McNabb had to say, and intervened on the Philadelphia Eagles’ behalf. McNabb’s mother saying that she was bothered because she knew that Philadelphia fans are fickle is one thing, 5 himself saying such things may be something completely different. McNabb started last season as hot any QB in the history of the game – save this year’s edition of Tom Brady. It would not be absurd for him to feel slighted by the lovefest thrown upon a game-manager when his own grand achievements were so rarely celebrated. McNabb’s longstanding unhappiness also may have contributed to the black QB scandal earlier this year.
The Birds then picked Kevin Kolb with the explanation that we had no immediate holes to fill, a premise that eight games later my mother could find flaws in. Still (to my knowledge) the team hasn’t acknowledged that McNabb came up from surgery early and may still be fighting effects – it takes TWO full years to recover from major knee surgery. Fact.
McNabb’s MNF football comments about how he thinks he only gets cheered in Philly when he runs outside the pocket (read: acts black) further revealed his discomfort, but it may have been his most recent press conference that really opened the floodgates.
Following the ugly Cowboys loss McNabb talked openly about how, “it's easy to blame the quarterback when the team loses, but I'm definitely not the whole reason why we lost these games.” These statements were made on the team’s official website – no misquote claims possible. 5 continued, “I [shouldn't get the full] blame for everything that goes on around here.”
There are a couple things at play here: No, QB1 shouldn’t be blamed for missing tackles, dropping passes (and punts), poor gameplanning, and a lack of weapons, but that is pretty common fact – something that every sports writer in the city has explicitly said, and that sports fans understand implicitly anyway. It is also something best left unsaid by the McNabb himself.
McNabb shouldn’t be talking about blame at all; he shouldn’t even be talking about lost games either. It may be cliché to say, but this is a long season and while I – the casual sports fan – may be allowed to give up and reclaim hope dozens of time a season he – the quarterback of my team – damn well better not think for a second that he’s going to bring home anything less than 12-5 plus a bowl and the whole damn dinner table.
Scandal may exist within Sport, but it strikes losers … we’re 3-5.
However, none of this mattered, seeing as Friday morning I visited the black hole that is Kenyon College to celebrate Nick’s birthday. Me and the team began the weekend with drinks when I arrived at 5:30 a.m. Shockingly, I never got around to posting the picks.
If you’re curious about how they turned out the basic guess was this: For eight of the thirteen games my line was +/- 1 point of the actual spread, and my record in the games where my personal line was decent but not fantastic enough to establish a theory.
What has changed since then is that, several obvious big stories aside (ex. The Pats run, Adrian Peterson, the Pack being improbably good, the Chargers possible turnaround, etc), my interest in the league as a whole began to waver.
Nova started their season by waxing some nobody (although with the OSU and Kentucky losses nobodies are looking more and more formidable) and looked sick doing it. The Sixers, although a joke, are my joke, and expectations aside I’m excited to watch the dynamic frontline of Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans take the court.
But before I move on the land of milk and guardplay, I’m going to backtrack to everyone’s favorite stomping ground, namely our QB1, Donovan McNabb.
I have the belief that scandal is widespread across sports, regardless of the game being played. I also believe that generally, these scandals don’t affect the team in question at all, because if the team is winning or on the rise, who cares about a peripheral scandal? Fans are already getting the all information they need to keep their attention, and players can generally handle their own.
If the Eagles are winning the story doesn’t have to be “what’s wrong” because Eagles fans across the area are tuning in to hear about what’s right. It doesn’t matter if a player is upset with his playing time if that player is performing on the field. Those old St. Johns’ teams would get into fistfights in the locker-room before games (true story) but we only heard about them years later because that team was good – no need to focus on the bad to make fans look when fans are already tuned in.
The 90s cowboys teams had the ‘white house’ – where they did piles of drugs on top of piles of strippers – and Troy Aikman was apparently a big gay (Skip Bayless’ words, not mine) but these stories only emerged after their run was over. Why? Because on the meta-level sports writers don’t care why people read them, and sportstalk doesn’t care why people tune in. When teams are winning, that’s all the news that matters. Scandals don’t seem to matter to players either, unless they’re widely talked about it. On the field, professional players tend not to be easily distracted.
However, it is a lot harder to block out something that you hear about ten times a day, everyday. Charles Barkley once said that if an athlete says he doesn’t read the papers, he’s lying; they all know what is going on in and around their team. When fans stop caring about the games and start caring about the players, which happens on losing teams, those questions they have to answer stop being about the games and start being about the players … thus the tangible distraction.
Why this all relates to McNabb is that through this lens we may be able to see how defensive 5 really is.
There is a real possibility that the Philadelphia Eagles QB1 may have never felt truly comfortable in Eagles’ green. That the man dominated in yellow and blue may be an apt symbol for the beginning of the end of his time here. Truth be told, why should he feel comfortable? We booed him before he threw a snap and booed him again after he brought us to the Super Bowl – but it seems that he’s beginning to acknowledge that discomfort in more and more obvious ways.
His mother frequently suggests her own unhappiness with Philadelphia sports fans – bringing up the booing at the draft often and referring to last season’s run with Garcia at the helm as “bittersweet.” At the time we all seemed to brush off these statements as the words of a loving mother who wanted nothing but the best for her child, but the fact that her words weren’t vehemently shot down by 5 himself may be more telling than we gave credit for.
Also, after last season Andy Reid prohibited McNabb from talking to the press. This story still has never been explained, but there are at least two logical explanations.
1. Reid knew that McNabb didn’t want to hear what the press had to say and intervened on QB1’s behalf. This first scenario is not implausible at all; Reid has a long history of covering for his players and if McNabb asked Reid to keep the media away (or Reid just sensed that was McNabb’s wish at the time), it wouldn’t have offended anyone for Reid to have acted upon that impluse. Intuitively this made the most sense to me at the time, but the fact that McNabb hired his own publicist and started his own image-reclamation project without the knowledge or permission of the team during this past offseason may suggest otherwise. This first scenario suggests that McNabb has thin skin and either needed or wanted to be protected from outside criticism; and possibility 2 may be more problematic .
2. Reid knew that he didn’t want the press to hear what McNabb had to say, and intervened on the Philadelphia Eagles’ behalf. McNabb’s mother saying that she was bothered because she knew that Philadelphia fans are fickle is one thing, 5 himself saying such things may be something completely different. McNabb started last season as hot any QB in the history of the game – save this year’s edition of Tom Brady. It would not be absurd for him to feel slighted by the lovefest thrown upon a game-manager when his own grand achievements were so rarely celebrated. McNabb’s longstanding unhappiness also may have contributed to the black QB scandal earlier this year.
The Birds then picked Kevin Kolb with the explanation that we had no immediate holes to fill, a premise that eight games later my mother could find flaws in. Still (to my knowledge) the team hasn’t acknowledged that McNabb came up from surgery early and may still be fighting effects – it takes TWO full years to recover from major knee surgery. Fact.
McNabb’s MNF football comments about how he thinks he only gets cheered in Philly when he runs outside the pocket (read: acts black) further revealed his discomfort, but it may have been his most recent press conference that really opened the floodgates.
Following the ugly Cowboys loss McNabb talked openly about how, “it's easy to blame the quarterback when the team loses, but I'm definitely not the whole reason why we lost these games.” These statements were made on the team’s official website – no misquote claims possible. 5 continued, “I [shouldn't get the full] blame for everything that goes on around here.”
There are a couple things at play here: No, QB1 shouldn’t be blamed for missing tackles, dropping passes (and punts), poor gameplanning, and a lack of weapons, but that is pretty common fact – something that every sports writer in the city has explicitly said, and that sports fans understand implicitly anyway. It is also something best left unsaid by the McNabb himself.
McNabb shouldn’t be talking about blame at all; he shouldn’t even be talking about lost games either. It may be cliché to say, but this is a long season and while I – the casual sports fan – may be allowed to give up and reclaim hope dozens of time a season he – the quarterback of my team – damn well better not think for a second that he’s going to bring home anything less than 12-5 plus a bowl and the whole damn dinner table.
Scandal may exist within Sport, but it strikes losers … we’re 3-5.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Week 9 NFL picks and Sixers thoughts
Now that I have some free time on a Saturday and the college football slate right now includes Penn-Princeton, Delaware-James Madison, Syracuse-Pitt, and Penn St-Purdue, I'm actually gonna spend some time on my NFL picks and start to redeem myself. Currently, the record shows that Beale leads me in the picks with a record of 22-33-3 to my 19-36-2, but we've both gotten off to worse starts than the Bulls (home-opening loss to the Sixers?). Maybe putting in a little thought and research into these picks will change things around.
And for the record, I've been pleasantly surprised by the Sixers so far. They held their own against two supposedly good teams on the road and they're showing some good signs: they've actually grasped the fact that they are meant to be a running team; Andre Miller has been willing to get out on the break; and Iguodala is already looking like the player some thought he would be (23 4th quarter points in 2 games, as well as great D toward the end of the Chicago game). Once he becomes a better ball-handler (still by far the weakest part of his game) and more confident shooting the ball, it looks like he can become a more-athletic, better-defensive,worse-1-on-1 version of Paul Pierce. he's already got the Truth's passing skills and competitiveness, and will be a far better defender and finisher around the rim. If only we'd locked him like we should have last week, instead of now being forced to match a WAY bigger offer at the end of this season than we would have had to give him this offseason. Oh, and one more encouraging stat: through 26 total minutes, my man Lou Williams has yet to commit a single turnover. Granted, he's only averaging 3.5 pts and 2.5 assists, but he's done a fine job of running the second unit without getting out of control.
Now, onto my improved NFL picks for Week 9:
EAGLES (+3) vs. Dallas
I just told Beale a few nights ago that I guessed this line would be closer to -5.5 before they came out with the lines, and that if I were still betting, I would definitely pick Dallas considering how low the line is. Since then, though, I got a ticket to the game on Sunday night and with me in the stands, there is no way they lose this game. For my career going to Eagles games, they are 4-2 and the 2 losses were by 2 and 3 points, respectively, on opposing teams' game-ending field goals. So given that logic, even if we lose this game, it will be by 2 or 3 points.
As mediocre as this team has been so far, we have (with only 1 exception) played Dallas well the last 5 years, and we always play them tough at home. Even when we stunk 2 years ago, we had them beat at home before McNabb threw that awful pick to Roy "I pray that teams don't throw at me" Williams and Reggie Brown dropped a wide open last minute pass from Mike McMahon that would have given us an easy field goal to win. And we frustrated the hell out of Romo last year in Dallas (14-29, 141, 1 TD, 2 INT), which I think we can do again the way our D-ends are playing and with Dawk back. Both teams have been good defensively against the run, average against the pass (meaning the ball will be in the air A LOT on Sunday), and both offenses have moved the ball decently (only the Eagles haven't been able to score inside the Red Zone, which I actually think is one of those fluky stats that can change suddenly game-to-game). So, ultimately I think it'll come down to the emotion of the crowd, and whichever team makes that big play or 2, which we seem to always do against Dallas in Philly. Even though the betting pick would probably be Dallas, I like us 27-24 in an upset.
Washington (-3.5) at NY JETS
This Jets team is awful, and Clemens will make too many mistakes for them to win this game. Washington should be embarrassed after having the score run up on them like that, and even though this will likely be an ugly game, I like the Skins. They rarely play pretty ball anyway, and with a good possession QB, a half-decent running game, very good TE, and a stout defense that also takes the ball away and scores (aside from the N.E. game against the best offense in NFL history, they've given up under 15 pts per game), they are built to win low-scoring, ugly games.
KANSAS CITY (-2) vs. Green Bay
This was a tough game for me to call, since my instincts tell me that KC blows and should always be bet against, especially when they're giving points. However, the Chiefs have actually started playing pretty good football and can probably sense that they really have a chance to take control of a division that they're already tied for the lead in. Neither team can run the ball at all so we can expect a lot of passing, but K.C. has been better against the pass (opposing QBs have a rating 10 pts lower against KC than against GB) and they take the ball away more. I know the Pack just won a road game at an AFC West opponent who, just like KC, has historically had a huge home-field advantage. But it's tough to take 2 long trips in a row, and the Pack have had a short week to prepare.
Also, some Vegas trends to point out: in the last 2 years, KC is 2-0 ATS after the bye against NFC teams (outscoring teams 69-21 in those 2 games); in the last 3 years, they are 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records; they're 13-5 ATS in home games over that span. Now, some numbers go in GB's favor: they are 12-7 ATS in road games over the last 3 years and KC is only 2-8 ATS after 2 straight wins. But with all those numbers, the most telling thing to me is that in Vegas the Pack are getting 70% of the action, yet the Linemakers lowered them to -105 with the spread (WITHOUT shifting the line). This means that even though the money is going to GB, they are encouraging even more action toward them, a sign that Vegas likes KC here.
Arizona (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY
I am really not sold on this Tampa team, especially with how poorly Garcia has played the last 2 weeks and how poorly Gruden has coached. First off, I also love Adrian Wilson. And that Zona offense has enough weapons to throw up 24 on Tampa, which will win this game. They're similar defensively, but Zona right now has the better running game, and this Tampa D cannot stop the run. Also, Arizona is 5-2 ATS, and 5-0 as an underdog (4-0 as a 3.5-9.5 pt dog also) to Tampa's 4-4 ATS. And the Cards had their bye last week, which I like.
TENNESSEE (-4) vs. Carolina
I actually think is gonna be a blowout. I would have had this as a 6 or 7 point spread, given the fact that David Carr will be starting for Carolina. Granted, Carolina has been a very good underdog team (3-1 ATS), but they're also 0-2 ATS against the AFC South, and this game is at Tennessee. Also, David Carr is a whopping 2-8 lifetime against the Titans, with both wins coming in 2004 against a putrid, 5-11 Tenn team. Thought you should know that.
San Fran (+3.5) at ATLANTA
Since these teams are equally awful, and their ATS numbers are both extremely mediocre, I'll take the team that at least has 1 OK number going for it. Amazingly enough, the Niners are 5-1 ATS in games in domes the last 3 years. That's enough for me. As is the fact that they don't have Joey Harrington playing QB for them.
Jacksonville (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
Very hard for me to pick a team with Quinn Gray starting for it, but they do enough of the little things for me to pick them against a team that I still don't think is very good. Even including their good year last year, New Orleans has been bad at home (4-11 ATS), while Jax has been a respectable 11-9 road team. The only thing I don't like is that the Jags are a running team and NO has actually been very good against the run (only 3.6 ypc against the run). Still, though, I think this game comes to Jacksonville being a team that does not turn it over (+4 in TO margin) and the Saints being one that does (-9 in TO margin). Jacksonville manages the game and forces enough turnovers to win this one, or at least make it very close. Still, I'm wavering because I could also see the Saints getting out to a big lead, meaning Quinn Gray would have to throw.
DETROIT (-3) vs. Denver
At first I had Denver in this one, but I've decided this week to actually look at how teams have done against the spread, instead of using only my own subjective feelings (as I usually do). I still think Detroit is mediocre, but Denver is just as bad. They can't stop the run, and their offense really has no playmakers anymore, aside from Marshall. They're also 1-6 ATS, and 1-2 as a dog, whereas Detroit is 4-2 ATS and 2-0 at home. They can put up a lot of points, and I just don't think Denver's offense is good enough anymore to outscore them in a shootout.
Cincy (-1) at BUFFALO
Cincy has to win eventually. I'll keep picking them until they do. I don't care that Buffalo is 5-2 ATS to Cincy's 2-4. There may not be a ton of offense in this game, but even in the bad weather in Buffalo, you can still hit big plays, and that's what Cincy will do.
San Diego (-7) at MINNY
San Diego is just a much better team. 2 great rush defenses, but you can definitely throw on the Vikings (worst pass D in the NFL), which San Diego can now do with Chambers in town. San Diego is starting to destroy people, and on top of that, they are historically a GREAT team in domes (how about 21-6 ATS in dome games since 1992, in one of the most obscure stats I'll ever drop). And Minny has not beaten the AFC, going 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND (-1) vs. Seattle
I always like the way the Browns play at home, and surprisingly enough, the Browns have the advantage in Vegas numbers not just this year, but also in the last few years. Over the last 3 years, they have a winning ATS record across the board in EVERY category this game fits into (November, NFC opponent, grass field, playing against teams with winning records, home games, home favorite, etc, etc.), whereas Seattle has been a really mediocre team in the categories this game fits into (non-conference, November, coming off Division game, underdog, road dog, etc). Also, this Cleveland offense is beyond legit. All those high draft picks on offensive players these last few years are paying off, and let's face it: Seattle kind of stinks. They don't do anything well. They're in the middle of the league in every conceivable category, and basically just have the saving grace of playing in the NFC West, which is absolutely horrid.
Houston (+3) at OAKLAND
These teams are both awful ATS, so I'm not gonna even try to get into any of those numbers. What this game comes down to to me, is Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, and I think Sage and the surprisingly potent Houston offense (4th in the NFL) will put up too many points for McCown to deal with. The only cool matchup here is that Oakland does ok against the pass and terrible against the run, but Houston never runs. So, maybe this will end up being a close game, which is even more reason for me to take the points.
Baltimore (+9) at STEELERS
Tough call for me. Division rivalry and Baltimore usually plays the Steelers tough (or just beats them). In fact, I just switched my pick after writing those first 2 sentences. These teams are 1-2 in defense (interestingly, the Pats and Colts are 3-4, respectively, so there are some good matchups), but Baltimore is giving up a lot more points. Still, I tend to think that's because the Baltimore O is awful and gives up the ball to the other team in good field position. This Baltimore D also doesn't take the ball away like they used to, but they still have more takeaways than Pittsburgh. Basically, I think when everything is said and done, the Steelers will win this game, but it'll probably be closer than 9 points. This pick is definitely subject to change, though, especially considering the Steelers' absurd numbers ATS as a favorite (5-2 in '07, 16-6 the last 3 years, and 70-43 the last 15 years). That franchise covers as favorites like it's their job.
COLTS (+5.5) vs. New England
Funny, I didn't even realize these teams were playing each other. I mean, I haven't heard much about this game this week. I think I caught a little piece about it on Versus, but you would think there would be more hype for a game that involves 2 of the best guys in the league at their position: Gostkowski vs. Vinatieri, Round 3. So far, Adam's gotten him, 2 games to none, so this is a big rematch for Steven. Frankly, I think Vinatieri's due for a big game, making it 3-0 lifetime against his New England counterpart.
In all seriousness, though, I have had a hard time getting over the Colts -- a 7-0 team coming off a Super Bowl win and STILL improved -- being such a big home underdog. I don't care who they're playing, or how good this New England offense is. Both teams have been playing great: NE and Indy are 1 and 3 respectively in offense, 3 and 4 respectively in defense, and both are tied for first with a +11 TO margin. In terms of gambling, they've both been absurdly good ATS, this year and the past few. The only real difference this year is that Belichick is an asshole and runs up the score, whereas Dungy is a good Christian who is content with just winning games (just as he's content with marriage only being between a man and a woman and with never allowing scientists to save lives with stem cell research). Hence, New England has been covering games while Indy has just been winning without having to cover every time.
So what does this game come down to? I think just 2 things: 1) the Colts have been flying under the radar and have shown the league absolutely nothing so far this year (they've essentially been saving Harrison all year for this game). They've also gotta be a little annoyed that they're the champs and are undefeated, yet NE is getting all the pub. 2) The Colts are playing at home. If this game were at Foxboro, yeah, I'd pick the Pats. But Indy has a great homefield advantage, which I think will be huge in this game. I like the Colts, 37-34. And hell, why not, they'll win on a missed Gostkowski field goal, reminding everyone that it was Vinatieri, not Brady, winning all those championships.
(P.S. As I watch Notre Dame struggle with Navy -- who comes off a loss to an average 1-AA team -- I can only wonder how much Charlie Weis wishes he hadn't taken that ND job and was still around to coach this New England offense.)
And for the record, I've been pleasantly surprised by the Sixers so far. They held their own against two supposedly good teams on the road and they're showing some good signs: they've actually grasped the fact that they are meant to be a running team; Andre Miller has been willing to get out on the break; and Iguodala is already looking like the player some thought he would be (23 4th quarter points in 2 games, as well as great D toward the end of the Chicago game). Once he becomes a better ball-handler (still by far the weakest part of his game) and more confident shooting the ball, it looks like he can become a more-athletic, better-defensive,worse-1-on-1 version of Paul Pierce. he's already got the Truth's passing skills and competitiveness, and will be a far better defender and finisher around the rim. If only we'd locked him like we should have last week, instead of now being forced to match a WAY bigger offer at the end of this season than we would have had to give him this offseason. Oh, and one more encouraging stat: through 26 total minutes, my man Lou Williams has yet to commit a single turnover. Granted, he's only averaging 3.5 pts and 2.5 assists, but he's done a fine job of running the second unit without getting out of control.
Now, onto my improved NFL picks for Week 9:
EAGLES (+3) vs. Dallas
I just told Beale a few nights ago that I guessed this line would be closer to -5.5 before they came out with the lines, and that if I were still betting, I would definitely pick Dallas considering how low the line is. Since then, though, I got a ticket to the game on Sunday night and with me in the stands, there is no way they lose this game. For my career going to Eagles games, they are 4-2 and the 2 losses were by 2 and 3 points, respectively, on opposing teams' game-ending field goals. So given that logic, even if we lose this game, it will be by 2 or 3 points.
As mediocre as this team has been so far, we have (with only 1 exception) played Dallas well the last 5 years, and we always play them tough at home. Even when we stunk 2 years ago, we had them beat at home before McNabb threw that awful pick to Roy "I pray that teams don't throw at me" Williams and Reggie Brown dropped a wide open last minute pass from Mike McMahon that would have given us an easy field goal to win. And we frustrated the hell out of Romo last year in Dallas (14-29, 141, 1 TD, 2 INT), which I think we can do again the way our D-ends are playing and with Dawk back. Both teams have been good defensively against the run, average against the pass (meaning the ball will be in the air A LOT on Sunday), and both offenses have moved the ball decently (only the Eagles haven't been able to score inside the Red Zone, which I actually think is one of those fluky stats that can change suddenly game-to-game). So, ultimately I think it'll come down to the emotion of the crowd, and whichever team makes that big play or 2, which we seem to always do against Dallas in Philly. Even though the betting pick would probably be Dallas, I like us 27-24 in an upset.
Washington (-3.5) at NY JETS
This Jets team is awful, and Clemens will make too many mistakes for them to win this game. Washington should be embarrassed after having the score run up on them like that, and even though this will likely be an ugly game, I like the Skins. They rarely play pretty ball anyway, and with a good possession QB, a half-decent running game, very good TE, and a stout defense that also takes the ball away and scores (aside from the N.E. game against the best offense in NFL history, they've given up under 15 pts per game), they are built to win low-scoring, ugly games.
KANSAS CITY (-2) vs. Green Bay
This was a tough game for me to call, since my instincts tell me that KC blows and should always be bet against, especially when they're giving points. However, the Chiefs have actually started playing pretty good football and can probably sense that they really have a chance to take control of a division that they're already tied for the lead in. Neither team can run the ball at all so we can expect a lot of passing, but K.C. has been better against the pass (opposing QBs have a rating 10 pts lower against KC than against GB) and they take the ball away more. I know the Pack just won a road game at an AFC West opponent who, just like KC, has historically had a huge home-field advantage. But it's tough to take 2 long trips in a row, and the Pack have had a short week to prepare.
Also, some Vegas trends to point out: in the last 2 years, KC is 2-0 ATS after the bye against NFC teams (outscoring teams 69-21 in those 2 games); in the last 3 years, they are 10-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records; they're 13-5 ATS in home games over that span. Now, some numbers go in GB's favor: they are 12-7 ATS in road games over the last 3 years and KC is only 2-8 ATS after 2 straight wins. But with all those numbers, the most telling thing to me is that in Vegas the Pack are getting 70% of the action, yet the Linemakers lowered them to -105 with the spread (WITHOUT shifting the line). This means that even though the money is going to GB, they are encouraging even more action toward them, a sign that Vegas likes KC here.
Arizona (+3.5) at TAMPA BAY
I am really not sold on this Tampa team, especially with how poorly Garcia has played the last 2 weeks and how poorly Gruden has coached. First off, I also love Adrian Wilson. And that Zona offense has enough weapons to throw up 24 on Tampa, which will win this game. They're similar defensively, but Zona right now has the better running game, and this Tampa D cannot stop the run. Also, Arizona is 5-2 ATS, and 5-0 as an underdog (4-0 as a 3.5-9.5 pt dog also) to Tampa's 4-4 ATS. And the Cards had their bye last week, which I like.
TENNESSEE (-4) vs. Carolina
I actually think is gonna be a blowout. I would have had this as a 6 or 7 point spread, given the fact that David Carr will be starting for Carolina. Granted, Carolina has been a very good underdog team (3-1 ATS), but they're also 0-2 ATS against the AFC South, and this game is at Tennessee. Also, David Carr is a whopping 2-8 lifetime against the Titans, with both wins coming in 2004 against a putrid, 5-11 Tenn team. Thought you should know that.
San Fran (+3.5) at ATLANTA
Since these teams are equally awful, and their ATS numbers are both extremely mediocre, I'll take the team that at least has 1 OK number going for it. Amazingly enough, the Niners are 5-1 ATS in games in domes the last 3 years. That's enough for me. As is the fact that they don't have Joey Harrington playing QB for them.
Jacksonville (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
Very hard for me to pick a team with Quinn Gray starting for it, but they do enough of the little things for me to pick them against a team that I still don't think is very good. Even including their good year last year, New Orleans has been bad at home (4-11 ATS), while Jax has been a respectable 11-9 road team. The only thing I don't like is that the Jags are a running team and NO has actually been very good against the run (only 3.6 ypc against the run). Still, though, I think this game comes to Jacksonville being a team that does not turn it over (+4 in TO margin) and the Saints being one that does (-9 in TO margin). Jacksonville manages the game and forces enough turnovers to win this one, or at least make it very close. Still, I'm wavering because I could also see the Saints getting out to a big lead, meaning Quinn Gray would have to throw.
DETROIT (-3) vs. Denver
At first I had Denver in this one, but I've decided this week to actually look at how teams have done against the spread, instead of using only my own subjective feelings (as I usually do). I still think Detroit is mediocre, but Denver is just as bad. They can't stop the run, and their offense really has no playmakers anymore, aside from Marshall. They're also 1-6 ATS, and 1-2 as a dog, whereas Detroit is 4-2 ATS and 2-0 at home. They can put up a lot of points, and I just don't think Denver's offense is good enough anymore to outscore them in a shootout.
Cincy (-1) at BUFFALO
Cincy has to win eventually. I'll keep picking them until they do. I don't care that Buffalo is 5-2 ATS to Cincy's 2-4. There may not be a ton of offense in this game, but even in the bad weather in Buffalo, you can still hit big plays, and that's what Cincy will do.
San Diego (-7) at MINNY
San Diego is just a much better team. 2 great rush defenses, but you can definitely throw on the Vikings (worst pass D in the NFL), which San Diego can now do with Chambers in town. San Diego is starting to destroy people, and on top of that, they are historically a GREAT team in domes (how about 21-6 ATS in dome games since 1992, in one of the most obscure stats I'll ever drop). And Minny has not beaten the AFC, going 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND (-1) vs. Seattle
I always like the way the Browns play at home, and surprisingly enough, the Browns have the advantage in Vegas numbers not just this year, but also in the last few years. Over the last 3 years, they have a winning ATS record across the board in EVERY category this game fits into (November, NFC opponent, grass field, playing against teams with winning records, home games, home favorite, etc, etc.), whereas Seattle has been a really mediocre team in the categories this game fits into (non-conference, November, coming off Division game, underdog, road dog, etc). Also, this Cleveland offense is beyond legit. All those high draft picks on offensive players these last few years are paying off, and let's face it: Seattle kind of stinks. They don't do anything well. They're in the middle of the league in every conceivable category, and basically just have the saving grace of playing in the NFC West, which is absolutely horrid.
Houston (+3) at OAKLAND
These teams are both awful ATS, so I'm not gonna even try to get into any of those numbers. What this game comes down to to me, is Sage Rosenfels vs. Josh McCown, and I think Sage and the surprisingly potent Houston offense (4th in the NFL) will put up too many points for McCown to deal with. The only cool matchup here is that Oakland does ok against the pass and terrible against the run, but Houston never runs. So, maybe this will end up being a close game, which is even more reason for me to take the points.
Baltimore (+9) at STEELERS
Tough call for me. Division rivalry and Baltimore usually plays the Steelers tough (or just beats them). In fact, I just switched my pick after writing those first 2 sentences. These teams are 1-2 in defense (interestingly, the Pats and Colts are 3-4, respectively, so there are some good matchups), but Baltimore is giving up a lot more points. Still, I tend to think that's because the Baltimore O is awful and gives up the ball to the other team in good field position. This Baltimore D also doesn't take the ball away like they used to, but they still have more takeaways than Pittsburgh. Basically, I think when everything is said and done, the Steelers will win this game, but it'll probably be closer than 9 points. This pick is definitely subject to change, though, especially considering the Steelers' absurd numbers ATS as a favorite (5-2 in '07, 16-6 the last 3 years, and 70-43 the last 15 years). That franchise covers as favorites like it's their job.
COLTS (+5.5) vs. New England
Funny, I didn't even realize these teams were playing each other. I mean, I haven't heard much about this game this week. I think I caught a little piece about it on Versus, but you would think there would be more hype for a game that involves 2 of the best guys in the league at their position: Gostkowski vs. Vinatieri, Round 3. So far, Adam's gotten him, 2 games to none, so this is a big rematch for Steven. Frankly, I think Vinatieri's due for a big game, making it 3-0 lifetime against his New England counterpart.
In all seriousness, though, I have had a hard time getting over the Colts -- a 7-0 team coming off a Super Bowl win and STILL improved -- being such a big home underdog. I don't care who they're playing, or how good this New England offense is. Both teams have been playing great: NE and Indy are 1 and 3 respectively in offense, 3 and 4 respectively in defense, and both are tied for first with a +11 TO margin. In terms of gambling, they've both been absurdly good ATS, this year and the past few. The only real difference this year is that Belichick is an asshole and runs up the score, whereas Dungy is a good Christian who is content with just winning games (just as he's content with marriage only being between a man and a woman and with never allowing scientists to save lives with stem cell research). Hence, New England has been covering games while Indy has just been winning without having to cover every time.
So what does this game come down to? I think just 2 things: 1) the Colts have been flying under the radar and have shown the league absolutely nothing so far this year (they've essentially been saving Harrison all year for this game). They've also gotta be a little annoyed that they're the champs and are undefeated, yet NE is getting all the pub. 2) The Colts are playing at home. If this game were at Foxboro, yeah, I'd pick the Pats. But Indy has a great homefield advantage, which I think will be huge in this game. I like the Colts, 37-34. And hell, why not, they'll win on a missed Gostkowski field goal, reminding everyone that it was Vinatieri, not Brady, winning all those championships.
(P.S. As I watch Notre Dame struggle with Navy -- who comes off a loss to an average 1-AA team -- I can only wonder how much Charlie Weis wishes he hadn't taken that ND job and was still around to coach this New England offense.)
Monday, October 29, 2007
Last Week's Picks
Because I feel bad about missing the picks I’m doing a “roundup” column instead. I’ll include my picks for the record:
Browns (-3) over RAMS (final score, 27-20)
Ray Didinger – for those outside Philadelphia Diddy is a senior producer at NFL films the unquestioned smartest football voice in America. He also co-hosts a Saturday morning sports talk show, which is going to become relevant right about now – was co-hosting his Saturday morning sports talk show and MacNow (other co-host) starts to talk about the great injustice that the NFL is doing to their fans and American football this week (we’ll get to that game later). Before MacNow gets a question but after he manages to use the word “abomination” to describe the event Didinger cuts in and guesses “Cardinals-Rams?”
That’s pretty much all I have to say about this game.
Lions (+5) over BEARS (final score 16-7)
So Dey-twa has beaten Chicago four straight times and is halfway to the “more then 10” wins Kitna guaranteed in the preseason and they have already matched or surpassed their win total in 4 out of the last 5 years. They did so on a steady diet of Kevin Jones, whoever their kicker is, and trying not to punt to Devin Hester (who delivered the brilliant post game comment “you can either give it to us at the 40 or you can pitch to Barry Bonds.”)
Still, I saw all of those 56 points and I’m not buying that this team is good yet.
Jags (+3.5) over BUCS (Jacksonville 24, TB 23)
Jacksonville ran 44 times, threw 16 times and won. Fred Taylor carried more times than the entire TB team and Jeff Garcia had 3 more completions than the Jags had attempts – and misfired 22 times.
Colts (-7) over PANTHERS (Colts 31-7)
Game of the year, 1 week away. I’m predicting an early injury to one of the all-world QBs and an ensuing blowout one way or the other. These games never match the hype.
As for this game the most exciting thing I can say is that it was a bad day for All-Pro Wideouts: Marvin Harrison missed the game due to injury and Steve Smith didn’t touch the ball after the first quarter – which seems impossible.
Bills (+3) over JETS (Bill, 13-3)
In a surprise to no one, the AP described this game as “incredibly dull.”
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCY (24-13)
Chad Johnson has been telling other team’s defensive backs to “get him out of there” and is rumored to have mentioned a similar statement to at least one opposing head coach.
His mate across the hash marks, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, had this to say about Marvin Lewis to kick a field goal from the Steelers' two instead of going for the touch: "That's why they're 5-2 and we're 2-5,'' Houshmandzadeh said. ''Good teams put it in the end zone. Teams like us kick field goals.”
Marvin Lewis, who I always thought was a hell of a football coach, has lost that team.
E-A-G-L-E-S (-1) over Purple Jesus (23-16)
We held PJ in check and started gearing up for Romo (seen carousing with Brittney Spears) and TOD next Sunday at the Linc.
Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS (Ten 13-9)
Vince Young averaged 1.9 yards a pass and 1.6 yards a run. Maybe that’s how Madden is going to get him this year.
New Orleans (-2.5) over 9ERS (31-10)
I’m sure this point got beat to death during the telecast, but the fact that Alex Smith and Reggie Bush were high school teammates is pretty fucking cool.
Also, the Saints aren’t back, the rest of their division is just awful so it might look that way.
Dolphins (+9) over Giants (in London)(13-10 NYFG)
London Times said this: “In a contest that seldom lived up to expectations, there were too many errors, penalties and incomplete passes.” Sounds about right, I can’t believe we sent England Eli Manning and Cleo Lemon.
Anyone think the Dolphins might be ready for the Brady Quinn era to begin?
PATRIOTS (-16) over Skins (a million to nothing)
I can’t believe those classless redskins don’t even let their top-5 defense show up to the game.
Asante Samuel offered this: “we wanted the shutout real bad. But obviously when we let any team score on us, it’s really disappointing. We’re happy about the victory but we would have loved the shutout.”
I’m unreasonably confident that Brady is going to break his leg this week, thus ruing the single most dominant team that I’ve seen play sports. Things are too good to be true always seem to turn out that way.
Chargers (no line) over Texans (35-10 SD)
They played in San Diego and the Chargers look back. Dunta Robinson is embarrassed and Rivers can throw again, all is right in this world.
The Pack (+3) over DENVER
It’s a bad week for Denver.
Browns (-3) over RAMS (final score, 27-20)
Ray Didinger – for those outside Philadelphia Diddy is a senior producer at NFL films the unquestioned smartest football voice in America. He also co-hosts a Saturday morning sports talk show, which is going to become relevant right about now – was co-hosting his Saturday morning sports talk show and MacNow (other co-host) starts to talk about the great injustice that the NFL is doing to their fans and American football this week (we’ll get to that game later). Before MacNow gets a question but after he manages to use the word “abomination” to describe the event Didinger cuts in and guesses “Cardinals-Rams?”
That’s pretty much all I have to say about this game.
Lions (+5) over BEARS (final score 16-7)
So Dey-twa has beaten Chicago four straight times and is halfway to the “more then 10” wins Kitna guaranteed in the preseason and they have already matched or surpassed their win total in 4 out of the last 5 years. They did so on a steady diet of Kevin Jones, whoever their kicker is, and trying not to punt to Devin Hester (who delivered the brilliant post game comment “you can either give it to us at the 40 or you can pitch to Barry Bonds.”)
Still, I saw all of those 56 points and I’m not buying that this team is good yet.
Jags (+3.5) over BUCS (Jacksonville 24, TB 23)
Jacksonville ran 44 times, threw 16 times and won. Fred Taylor carried more times than the entire TB team and Jeff Garcia had 3 more completions than the Jags had attempts – and misfired 22 times.
Colts (-7) over PANTHERS (Colts 31-7)
Game of the year, 1 week away. I’m predicting an early injury to one of the all-world QBs and an ensuing blowout one way or the other. These games never match the hype.
As for this game the most exciting thing I can say is that it was a bad day for All-Pro Wideouts: Marvin Harrison missed the game due to injury and Steve Smith didn’t touch the ball after the first quarter – which seems impossible.
Bills (+3) over JETS (Bill, 13-3)
In a surprise to no one, the AP described this game as “incredibly dull.”
Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCY (24-13)
Chad Johnson has been telling other team’s defensive backs to “get him out of there” and is rumored to have mentioned a similar statement to at least one opposing head coach.
His mate across the hash marks, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, had this to say about Marvin Lewis to kick a field goal from the Steelers' two instead of going for the touch: "That's why they're 5-2 and we're 2-5,'' Houshmandzadeh said. ''Good teams put it in the end zone. Teams like us kick field goals.”
Marvin Lewis, who I always thought was a hell of a football coach, has lost that team.
E-A-G-L-E-S (-1) over Purple Jesus (23-16)
We held PJ in check and started gearing up for Romo (seen carousing with Brittney Spears) and TOD next Sunday at the Linc.
Raiders (+7.5) over TITANS (Ten 13-9)
Vince Young averaged 1.9 yards a pass and 1.6 yards a run. Maybe that’s how Madden is going to get him this year.
New Orleans (-2.5) over 9ERS (31-10)
I’m sure this point got beat to death during the telecast, but the fact that Alex Smith and Reggie Bush were high school teammates is pretty fucking cool.
Also, the Saints aren’t back, the rest of their division is just awful so it might look that way.
Dolphins (+9) over Giants (in London)(13-10 NYFG)
London Times said this: “In a contest that seldom lived up to expectations, there were too many errors, penalties and incomplete passes.” Sounds about right, I can’t believe we sent England Eli Manning and Cleo Lemon.
Anyone think the Dolphins might be ready for the Brady Quinn era to begin?
PATRIOTS (-16) over Skins (a million to nothing)
I can’t believe those classless redskins don’t even let their top-5 defense show up to the game.
Asante Samuel offered this: “we wanted the shutout real bad. But obviously when we let any team score on us, it’s really disappointing. We’re happy about the victory but we would have loved the shutout.”
I’m unreasonably confident that Brady is going to break his leg this week, thus ruing the single most dominant team that I’ve seen play sports. Things are too good to be true always seem to turn out that way.
Chargers (no line) over Texans (35-10 SD)
They played in San Diego and the Chargers look back. Dunta Robinson is embarrassed and Rivers can throw again, all is right in this world.
The Pack (+3) over DENVER
It’s a bad week for Denver.
Vince Young: Troublemaker!
From the AP story of yesterday's game:
"Young's frustration boiled over after Derrick Burgess sacked him on third-and-2 in the third quarter. Young threw the ball downfield after he hit the ground and picked up a delay of game penalty."
He also answers a question about a dropped ball by responding, "I'm tired of seeing the defense in these situations having to win the game for us."
I think I've found a hobby
"Young's frustration boiled over after Derrick Burgess sacked him on third-and-2 in the third quarter. Young threw the ball downfield after he hit the ground and picked up a delay of game penalty."
He also answers a question about a dropped ball by responding, "I'm tired of seeing the defense in these situations having to win the game for us."
I think I've found a hobby
James 1, Boston 1
So while I may have made myself look foolish and ignorant by claiming confidently that the Rockies were going to come back, even after that game 1 trashing let the world know that I redeemed myself in my fight against Boston by putting an absolute hurting on formally first place McAdams in my fantasy football league.
life is balanced once more
if someone sends me an embarrassing picture of McAdams I promise to post it in conjuncture with this post
life is balanced once more
if someone sends me an embarrassing picture of McAdams I promise to post it in conjuncture with this post
Vince Young: Troublemaker
As I was going through this week's picks I came across several paragraphs that perhaps necessitate their own post. Seeing as I missed the entire picks section, figured that this could be one of those precious times when need, fact, and happenstance may in fact couple. Without further ado, the first of many “sorry I missed the picks” posts. We’ll start at the end.
Vince Young (goldenboy, hero of 9stabs) is a troublemaker. I’ll document document:
VY grew up a child prodigy in Texas, and like many prodigies in the Lone Star his athletic ability made it so that it would be conceivable (at the least) that his star shown so bright that it overwhelmed whatever problems may have existed within his championship-filled dome. He was the national player-of-the-year in high school and ranked as the #1 recruit in all the land so for a long time now he’s been the man and treated as such.
This is hard to label narrowly as a problem – if it is one it is certainly more so to the systematic deficiencies in the American psyche than to VY as an individual – but it should not be discounted that the man has been treated as a hero wherever he goes, and in large part rightly so. VY as an individual wins games, and VY as an individual should be judged on said ability to get the job done.
However, I couple that truefact with the separate truefact that If I – a young man with all the advantages advantage can buy and a support system that truly did (and does) support me – grew up loved by millions, needed by millions more I’m confident that my ego would be placed inappropriately above its pre-selected natural level (also abnormally high). If for the first twenty years of my life every last minute drive depended on me, every time a kitten was stuck in a tree I would be looked at, every time a cheerleader spun and jumped they did so for me me, every time a state that calls itself a nation needed a hero they would point their momentarily egalitarian eyes towards ME, and every time that happened I delivered I would make mistakes.
… but, as many a great prophet has spoken: “it be not the fuckupish that we must focus, but rather the fuckup him(or her … just kidding, its always him)self whose scorn our eyes focus hath earned.” With this is mind, arguably the greatest singular talent of my generation doesn’t get it.
Out of College Vince Young scored about 0 on the wonderlic. I’ve seen the wonderlic – you’ve seen the wonderlick – it doesn’t take a genius to understand that it doesn’t take a genius. A good score is an indication of a history of informed understanding; a bad score is an indication of a lack of understanding – the test is more about knowledge than it is about smarts. I have an academic history that suggests I’m passably smart and a basis of sports knowledge that (I hope) shows that I’m consciously knowledge, I know the difference. They aren’t testing one’s ability to learn as much as they are testing one’s ability to study. A good score is therefore a proper indication of proper study, with similar correlation stats in reverse.
Yet still, a man who reads defenses like Clinton reads polls failed the test. Someone who has an athletic history that suggests he’s not a moron – and holds a rhetorical sense of speech that suggests he cares – straight up failed. That’s a problem.
As I’ve mentioned before, the quarterback position in the National Football League is the most scrutinized place to play in the world. You’re my QB? Win. No exceptions. It’s a hard mandate.
A 6 on the wonderlic suggests that VY might not get this. Poor scores mean less about intelligence than it does his preparation and understanding of what his priorities need to be. QB1 is not just an athletic designation, it’s a life role. These roles require study and prep. 6 months ago I thought was tricked into thinking that skill was enough.
Then, this preseason, VY got suspended. The reason itself seemed trivial (he missed curfew, opting to sleep at a location of his choosing) but what it revealed said something – the Franchise who didn’t get that the media means something just gave a fuckyou to the franchise who pays the bills that the media is buying. The titans may have the briefcase, but VY pulled the shotgun.
Still, the young man can play ball, and the young man is a winner and if said young man is said “winner” it becomes a lot easier to ignore the injustice of sticking stick up boys. Afterall, the thug in question is our boy who took Leinhart’s illegitimate children’s first claim to fame (being conceived) and made it his own personal coming out party.
BUT and I capitalized that for a reason, MVP got cocky. This isn’t about that Madden – the curse that VY brought upon himself is the curse of ignorance. This young man, a smart, competent, capable young man with seemingly infinite talent has a weakness – he just can’t avoid those self-inflicted gun shots to the foot.
For years we avoided it – the wonderlic doesn’t matter, his USC win means more than an entire college career – and I’m certainly part of the “we” I bless – but that’s not where it ends.
When Donovan McNabb brought up race and Quarterbacking (if you care you see below for my analysis) VY was asked his thoughts and basically said “not an issue.” Young both showed disregard for the fact that his job as a black QB1 may be under less media scrutiny because of the increase in black professionals (like, say McNabb). His comments were insensitive to the subject but more than that they weren’t well thought out. With the controversy what it was at the time the question shouldn’t have come as a surprise, the fact that his comments suggested it did is troublesome.
Then, last week, after he goes down with an injury he pouts on the sideline away from his team (as they win!) and offers quotes after the game asking “why wouldn’t [he] have wanted to play?” Short answer: your team won, you shouldn’t have wanted to change anything.
We’re not at the point where any of this is a major problem yet, but with the recent Chad Johnson whining and needing out in mind we may be at the point were it would be wise to start documenting what could be the next great NFL head case.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Week 8 picks
Since i'm doing so poorly (and it's already 1:00), i don't want to even try to justify these picks. so here are my week 8 picks, sans explanation.
(Last week: 3-11; Season: 13-29-2)
ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Cleveland
Detroit (+6) at CHICAGO
Indy (-7) at CAROLINA
NY Giants (-10) vs. Miami
Oakland (+7) at TENNESSEE
Philly (-1) at MINNESOTA
CINCY (+4) vs Pittsburgh
JETS (-3) vs. Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. Houston
TAMPA (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
SAN FRAN (+2) vs. New Orleans
NEW ENGLAND (-15) vs. Washington
DENVER (-3) vs. Green Bay
(Last week: 3-11; Season: 13-29-2)
ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Cleveland
Detroit (+6) at CHICAGO
Indy (-7) at CAROLINA
NY Giants (-10) vs. Miami
Oakland (+7) at TENNESSEE
Philly (-1) at MINNESOTA
CINCY (+4) vs Pittsburgh
JETS (-3) vs. Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. Houston
TAMPA (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
SAN FRAN (+2) vs. New Orleans
NEW ENGLAND (-15) vs. Washington
DENVER (-3) vs. Green Bay
Thursday, October 25, 2007
want to make a lot of money?
rockies in 6, even after that 13-1 loss. I have numbers (well, theories) to back it up, but why ruin the fun? (alright, one quick one ... 3 teams in the history of major league baseball have lost game 1 by 10 runs or more, all 3 have won the series so long story short this one ain't over)
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Why We Should Never Trade AI, vol. 386
The Sixers recently outright released Derrick Byers, the G/F out of Vandy who doubled as the 42nd pick in the 2007 NBA draft.
What makes this ludicris is not that we cut a decent 2nd rounder who at least looked like a feasible rotation guy in school, but rather that by cutting Byers the Sixers essentially cut THE main reason why we made the AI trade with Denver instead of another team.
During the trade negotiations Billy King was adamant about obtaining “two first rounders!” seemingly regardless of where in the first round those picks would fall (I wonder if he understands the basic concept of the NBA draft or just assumes all first rounders are JUST LIKE the others).
This means that he accepted the 21st and the 30th pick instead of say, Boston’s, Atlanta’s, New York’s, or Golden State’s (other popularly mentioned destinations for the Answer) and this says nothing of young players who might already be good (espn was suggesting at the time packages built around Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Channing Frye, or a package of Golden State young guys – Biendris, Monta Ellia, that foreign shooting guard who plays some D).
But no, Billy held onto his need to get two first rounders, than traded the second one of those (Petteri Koppenan) for the a second rounder (Byers) who he then had to cut because Byers wouldn’t play in Europe for us. Meanwhile, the 19 year old swiss guard would have ... shocking how it turned out that a 19 year old would accept staying in his foreign country while a 23 year old from Memphis TN might be more reluctant to the idea.
William King may be an excellent person, he may have solid morals, he may be generally smart, likeable, friendly, etc. but the man does not know how to run a basketball organization one bit, unfortunatlely, it seems that the Sixers are figuring this out the long, hard way.
What makes this ludicris is not that we cut a decent 2nd rounder who at least looked like a feasible rotation guy in school, but rather that by cutting Byers the Sixers essentially cut THE main reason why we made the AI trade with Denver instead of another team.
During the trade negotiations Billy King was adamant about obtaining “two first rounders!” seemingly regardless of where in the first round those picks would fall (I wonder if he understands the basic concept of the NBA draft or just assumes all first rounders are JUST LIKE the others).
This means that he accepted the 21st and the 30th pick instead of say, Boston’s, Atlanta’s, New York’s, or Golden State’s (other popularly mentioned destinations for the Answer) and this says nothing of young players who might already be good (espn was suggesting at the time packages built around Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Channing Frye, or a package of Golden State young guys – Biendris, Monta Ellia, that foreign shooting guard who plays some D).
But no, Billy held onto his need to get two first rounders, than traded the second one of those (Petteri Koppenan) for the a second rounder (Byers) who he then had to cut because Byers wouldn’t play in Europe for us. Meanwhile, the 19 year old swiss guard would have ... shocking how it turned out that a 19 year old would accept staying in his foreign country while a 23 year old from Memphis TN might be more reluctant to the idea.
William King may be an excellent person, he may have solid morals, he may be generally smart, likeable, friendly, etc. but the man does not know how to run a basketball organization one bit, unfortunatlely, it seems that the Sixers are figuring this out the long, hard way.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Week 7 picks
After a 2-week hiatus, i'm back with my picks. Expect a big week.
(Season record: 10-18-2 vs James: 17-24-3)
EAGLES (-5.5) vs. Bears
Even though I think we'll probably win by about 3, i still gotta go with the team that I think is gonna win. Reading the Inquirer this morning, I was shocked by how impressive the Eagles numbers are this year. For example, we have more points, first downs, TD's, yards, rushing yards (by a HUGE margin), passing yards and more INTs than our opponents. More than anything, I think this is a compliment of how good our defense has been this year, despite my constant complaints that we no longer have a dominating D that takes the ball away. The reality is, we're probably somewhere in between the mediocre D that I thought we were and the great D that the players and media are saying we've been. Still, considering we have 3 new starting LBs, are missing our 2 best players (Dawk and Lito), being a top 10 ranked D is pretty damn good. If our offense can become even a shade of what it has been the last 4 or 5 years, we should be ok (brutal schedule not withstanding).
Baltimore (-3) at BUFFALO
Mainly because Buffalo stinks. And I don't trust Trent Edwards at all against the Ravens D.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT
I don't care that Detroit is playing at home, and they're much better in their dome. As long as their defense is involved, I have a hard time picking them as favorites.
HOUSTON (+1.5) vs. Tennessee
I don't particularly care about the Vince Young-Houston history. I still think Houston is legit this year (despite the overwhelming evidence from the last 2 weeks against that) and Tennessee has not impressed me at all this year. Plus, VY is banged up and if Kerry Collins is involved, this is a slam dunk.
MIAMI (+16) vs. New England
More than anything, I like the under 51.5 total points. Things have been a little too easy for New England, Miami ALWAYS plays Brady well, and Belichick will probably make sure to do just enough to win this game without showing too much. And given Brady's struggles against Miami and Maroney's return, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more running, and thus fewer points.
San Fran (+9) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are so poorly coached that this just reaks of a game that the Giants make way closer than it should be. They'll pull it out, but it will be ugly and they'll have some sloppy special teams plays and turnovers.
SAINTS (-8.5) vs. Atlanta
Never liked Leftwich, at least since he left Marshall. He was good back then. I don't think New Orleans is any good, but at home this should be an easy win against an even worse team
Arizona (+8.5) at WASHINGTON
I have no logical justification for this pick, other than that the Cardinals seem to play better with Warner (and he may suit up today, albeit with a big arm brace). Also, I feel Washington sleepwalking through this one, and maybe even getting upset.
OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
Oakland playing at home should be good enough to pull this one out. 10-7 final.
CINCY (-6.5) vs NY Jets
The Bengals get right against a really bad team. Kellen Clemens gets in the game because of a really bad starting quarterback.
Minny (+9) at DALLAS
Seems like I'm just picking against the NFC East here, but this is just too many points against a team that can really run the ball and plays decent defense. Then again, the Vikes could be looking ahead to their monster showdown against the Birds next week and play a sloppy game.
SEATTLE (-8.5) vs. Rams
God, what a crappy matchup. This will be an incredibly boring game, with a lot more turnovers than TDs. But the Rams blow, and are even worse without Steven Jackson.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at DENVER
This is my least confident pick, only because the Steelers lost to Arizona on the road in a game they really should have won. BUT, Denver is missing 2 d-linemen, 2 o-linemen, and Jay Cutler is playing quarterback. So Pittsburgh should run all over them and sack Cutler at least 5 times.
JAX (+3) vs Indy
It won't be as bad as last year's 44-17 game, and Indy will definitely be motivated by that game and by the fact that they are getting ZERO credit this year. With those intangibles stated, from a purely football standpoint, the Jags can really exploit the Colts' awful run D and they match up ok on D (as well as a team can against Manning and Co.). Also, I have memories of Jacksonville's dominating Monday night performance a few years back, which gives me some hope here.
(Season record: 10-18-2 vs James: 17-24-3)
EAGLES (-5.5) vs. Bears
Even though I think we'll probably win by about 3, i still gotta go with the team that I think is gonna win. Reading the Inquirer this morning, I was shocked by how impressive the Eagles numbers are this year. For example, we have more points, first downs, TD's, yards, rushing yards (by a HUGE margin), passing yards and more INTs than our opponents. More than anything, I think this is a compliment of how good our defense has been this year, despite my constant complaints that we no longer have a dominating D that takes the ball away. The reality is, we're probably somewhere in between the mediocre D that I thought we were and the great D that the players and media are saying we've been. Still, considering we have 3 new starting LBs, are missing our 2 best players (Dawk and Lito), being a top 10 ranked D is pretty damn good. If our offense can become even a shade of what it has been the last 4 or 5 years, we should be ok (brutal schedule not withstanding).
Baltimore (-3) at BUFFALO
Mainly because Buffalo stinks. And I don't trust Trent Edwards at all against the Ravens D.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) at DETROIT
I don't care that Detroit is playing at home, and they're much better in their dome. As long as their defense is involved, I have a hard time picking them as favorites.
HOUSTON (+1.5) vs. Tennessee
I don't particularly care about the Vince Young-Houston history. I still think Houston is legit this year (despite the overwhelming evidence from the last 2 weeks against that) and Tennessee has not impressed me at all this year. Plus, VY is banged up and if Kerry Collins is involved, this is a slam dunk.
MIAMI (+16) vs. New England
More than anything, I like the under 51.5 total points. Things have been a little too easy for New England, Miami ALWAYS plays Brady well, and Belichick will probably make sure to do just enough to win this game without showing too much. And given Brady's struggles against Miami and Maroney's return, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more running, and thus fewer points.
San Fran (+9) at NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are so poorly coached that this just reaks of a game that the Giants make way closer than it should be. They'll pull it out, but it will be ugly and they'll have some sloppy special teams plays and turnovers.
SAINTS (-8.5) vs. Atlanta
Never liked Leftwich, at least since he left Marshall. He was good back then. I don't think New Orleans is any good, but at home this should be an easy win against an even worse team
Arizona (+8.5) at WASHINGTON
I have no logical justification for this pick, other than that the Cardinals seem to play better with Warner (and he may suit up today, albeit with a big arm brace). Also, I feel Washington sleepwalking through this one, and maybe even getting upset.
OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
Oakland playing at home should be good enough to pull this one out. 10-7 final.
CINCY (-6.5) vs NY Jets
The Bengals get right against a really bad team. Kellen Clemens gets in the game because of a really bad starting quarterback.
Minny (+9) at DALLAS
Seems like I'm just picking against the NFC East here, but this is just too many points against a team that can really run the ball and plays decent defense. Then again, the Vikes could be looking ahead to their monster showdown against the Birds next week and play a sloppy game.
SEATTLE (-8.5) vs. Rams
God, what a crappy matchup. This will be an incredibly boring game, with a lot more turnovers than TDs. But the Rams blow, and are even worse without Steven Jackson.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at DENVER
This is my least confident pick, only because the Steelers lost to Arizona on the road in a game they really should have won. BUT, Denver is missing 2 d-linemen, 2 o-linemen, and Jay Cutler is playing quarterback. So Pittsburgh should run all over them and sack Cutler at least 5 times.
JAX (+3) vs Indy
It won't be as bad as last year's 44-17 game, and Indy will definitely be motivated by that game and by the fact that they are getting ZERO credit this year. With those intangibles stated, from a purely football standpoint, the Jags can really exploit the Colts' awful run D and they match up ok on D (as well as a team can against Manning and Co.). Also, I have memories of Jacksonville's dominating Monday night performance a few years back, which gives me some hope here.
Friday, October 19, 2007
PICKS! PICKS!
Alright, if memory serves I recovered admirably from a poor first couple weeks to DOMINATE the picks two weeks ago, before taking my bye last week. That display was not nearly as impressive as this current one though, I’m pretty confident I’m pulling off the rare sweep. Without further ado:
MIA (-16.5) over New England
Confident: Trap game after the big Dallas win. Plus NE is on the road against the only team ever to have gone undefeated and always seem to play the other undefeated tough. Brady sucks at Miami (218 yards and 2 TD in two games last year combined last year, and 312 with 3 picks the year before). Ronnie Brown has been a monster, a heavy dose of him this week should at least keep the NE offense off the field a bit. Also, I feel like I’m the only guy in America who likes the Chambers trade from the Dolphins end. Not only do they pick up a 2nd rounder (great value) but they get rid of a veteran whose not going to be happy there and replace his touches with a kid whose going to think this weekend is the superbowl.
Plus Miami might be nuts enough not to get blown away. Check out this quote from linebacker Channing Crowder: "I don't think we should be any underdog, I don't think the team's that much better than us."
I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but this game is not going to decided by over two touchdowns.
Hesitant: Miami is awful and the Pats are excellent. No team plays the disrespect card better than the Pats and some guy named Channing Crowder just called them out. NE is 6-0 against the spread and I think just picked Miss Cleo over Tom Brady.
Tampa Bay (-2) over DEY-TWA
Confident: I just can’t get that ‘56’ out of my head, I honestly might have to pick against Detroit all season.
Hesitant: This is the type of game that is determined by the style of play, if the ‘under’ comes up I think so does TB, if its ‘over’ I think it’s the Lions – that means that I’m assuming that Tampa Bay can come into Detroit without their workhouse (Cadillac) and impose their style of play.
San Fran (-9) over THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Confident: the NYFG just played MNF football again and with San Fran than Miami before the bye I can see this game being a bit of a trap. Record aside, I’m not sold on this giants team being any good, plus both of their running backs are banged up – both Ward and Jacobs have bad ankles.
Hesitant: The Niners safeties both get beat deep, and Plax has been a monster this year so I expect him to go off and if they get up early its not like Trent Dilfer is going to be leading a ferocious comeback.
WAS (-7.5) over Arizona
Confident: Arizona is a mess, Washington’s D is legitimately good, Tim Rattey isn’t. Jason Campell just might be, Arizona’s second leading rusher is Matt Leinhart.
Hesitant: I wish the line was a point lower – I think Wisenhunt is going to try to grind this game out, and giving up a touchdown seem like a lot, especially against a team that hasn’t gotten any touchdowns from its receivers this year. I almost talked myself out of this pick.
Atl (-8) over N.O.
Confident: I’ve always been irrationally favorable towards Byron Leftwich, plus when I was guessing this line I was off by WAY too much. I just think New Orleans might stink. I know its an awful game, but I think I’d really enjoy watching these bums play. Fun fact: Jerious Norwood has half of the carries that Warrick Dunn has (82 to 41) but only 30 less yards.
Hesitant: New Orleans may stink, but Atl definitely does stink.
BUFFALO (-3) over BMore
Confident: Buffalo in Buffalo isn’t going to roll over, not with all those Canadians supporting them. Plus there is talk in BMore about Ogden being out for the year and it seems like that entire team is banged up.
Hesitant: Rex Ryan can scheme his ass off and God’s linebacker, Ed Reed, Bart Scot, T. Suggs and the gang used to eat rookie QBs whole. If they get that back it could be a long day.
Ten (-1) at HOUSTON
Confident: V.Young may never lose at Houston: he’s a gamer, its his hometown, and they passed on him for Mario Williams.
Hesitant: he might be hurt, which throws off their entire weeks gameplan. As Mawae, their center put it, “its not like they’re going to run the option with Kerry Collins in there.” But they do have to practice it.
OAK (+3) over Kansas City
Confident: Oakland is the shit! Kansas City is actually leading that division, and that’s not going to keep up.
Hesitant: not Hesitant, which surely means I’m going to lose.
Jets (-6) over CINCI
Confident: Often times when a QB is on the ropes they respond with a not-awful game, this is Chad Pennington’s time for that not-awful game.
Hesitant: The JetsJetsJets played an awful game and had an awful gameplan last week, they are not to be trusted. I’m picking a road-dog? Cincy always finishes at .500, meaning they need to start winning now to get there.
SEATTLE (+8) over St. Louis
Confident: I'm not, they both stink.
Hesitant: I lost all my notes on this game, so I'm just writing this instead.
PHILLY (+5) over Chi
Confident: I’m sticking with my man Winston. Plus we always get better as the year goes along, and this year is certainly going along.
Hesitant: That line is WAY too high, our starting right tackle, who has started 183 consectutive games, hurt himself falling off a table, this may not be our year. Devin Hester is really scary.
Minn (-9.5) at DAL
Confident: A team with a good running game and a solid D should never lose by nine and a half points. Plus T.O. is whining again (this week’s pet peeve: why isn’t he getting called out for this week’s antics? Saying “I’m not going to complain even though we should be throwing it deep more often and finding ways to get me the ball” IS complaining!) and Romo’s a jerk.
Hesitant: Any and everyone can pass on the Vikings, which is bad.
Pitt (+3.5) at DEN
Confident: Champ and Bly can’t stop the run. Simeon Rice (who plays for Denver this year, who knew?) is openly complaining in their papers and wishes he didn’t have to play there. No home field advantage because the Rockies have taken that town over. Javon Walker is out
Hesitant: I’m not, this one’s going to be a blowout.
Indy (+3) at JAX
Confident: Indy is really, really good and not getting any respect or attention because the Pats just may be better. Indy shows up in big regular season games (I’m still of the camp that Manning folds in the playoffs AND that he folded last year and the team won despite him in the playoffs), David Garrard is due for a INT?
Hesitant: Indy lost 44-17 at Jacksonville last year.
MIA (-16.5) over New England
Confident: Trap game after the big Dallas win. Plus NE is on the road against the only team ever to have gone undefeated and always seem to play the other undefeated tough. Brady sucks at Miami (218 yards and 2 TD in two games last year combined last year, and 312 with 3 picks the year before). Ronnie Brown has been a monster, a heavy dose of him this week should at least keep the NE offense off the field a bit. Also, I feel like I’m the only guy in America who likes the Chambers trade from the Dolphins end. Not only do they pick up a 2nd rounder (great value) but they get rid of a veteran whose not going to be happy there and replace his touches with a kid whose going to think this weekend is the superbowl.
Plus Miami might be nuts enough not to get blown away. Check out this quote from linebacker Channing Crowder: "I don't think we should be any underdog, I don't think the team's that much better than us."
I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but this game is not going to decided by over two touchdowns.
Hesitant: Miami is awful and the Pats are excellent. No team plays the disrespect card better than the Pats and some guy named Channing Crowder just called them out. NE is 6-0 against the spread and I think just picked Miss Cleo over Tom Brady.
Tampa Bay (-2) over DEY-TWA
Confident: I just can’t get that ‘56’ out of my head, I honestly might have to pick against Detroit all season.
Hesitant: This is the type of game that is determined by the style of play, if the ‘under’ comes up I think so does TB, if its ‘over’ I think it’s the Lions – that means that I’m assuming that Tampa Bay can come into Detroit without their workhouse (Cadillac) and impose their style of play.
San Fran (-9) over THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Confident: the NYFG just played MNF football again and with San Fran than Miami before the bye I can see this game being a bit of a trap. Record aside, I’m not sold on this giants team being any good, plus both of their running backs are banged up – both Ward and Jacobs have bad ankles.
Hesitant: The Niners safeties both get beat deep, and Plax has been a monster this year so I expect him to go off and if they get up early its not like Trent Dilfer is going to be leading a ferocious comeback.
WAS (-7.5) over Arizona
Confident: Arizona is a mess, Washington’s D is legitimately good, Tim Rattey isn’t. Jason Campell just might be, Arizona’s second leading rusher is Matt Leinhart.
Hesitant: I wish the line was a point lower – I think Wisenhunt is going to try to grind this game out, and giving up a touchdown seem like a lot, especially against a team that hasn’t gotten any touchdowns from its receivers this year. I almost talked myself out of this pick.
Atl (-8) over N.O.
Confident: I’ve always been irrationally favorable towards Byron Leftwich, plus when I was guessing this line I was off by WAY too much. I just think New Orleans might stink. I know its an awful game, but I think I’d really enjoy watching these bums play. Fun fact: Jerious Norwood has half of the carries that Warrick Dunn has (82 to 41) but only 30 less yards.
Hesitant: New Orleans may stink, but Atl definitely does stink.
BUFFALO (-3) over BMore
Confident: Buffalo in Buffalo isn’t going to roll over, not with all those Canadians supporting them. Plus there is talk in BMore about Ogden being out for the year and it seems like that entire team is banged up.
Hesitant: Rex Ryan can scheme his ass off and God’s linebacker, Ed Reed, Bart Scot, T. Suggs and the gang used to eat rookie QBs whole. If they get that back it could be a long day.
Ten (-1) at HOUSTON
Confident: V.Young may never lose at Houston: he’s a gamer, its his hometown, and they passed on him for Mario Williams.
Hesitant: he might be hurt, which throws off their entire weeks gameplan. As Mawae, their center put it, “its not like they’re going to run the option with Kerry Collins in there.” But they do have to practice it.
OAK (+3) over Kansas City
Confident: Oakland is the shit! Kansas City is actually leading that division, and that’s not going to keep up.
Hesitant: not Hesitant, which surely means I’m going to lose.
Jets (-6) over CINCI
Confident: Often times when a QB is on the ropes they respond with a not-awful game, this is Chad Pennington’s time for that not-awful game.
Hesitant: The JetsJetsJets played an awful game and had an awful gameplan last week, they are not to be trusted. I’m picking a road-dog? Cincy always finishes at .500, meaning they need to start winning now to get there.
SEATTLE (+8) over St. Louis
Confident: I'm not, they both stink.
Hesitant: I lost all my notes on this game, so I'm just writing this instead.
PHILLY (+5) over Chi
Confident: I’m sticking with my man Winston. Plus we always get better as the year goes along, and this year is certainly going along.
Hesitant: That line is WAY too high, our starting right tackle, who has started 183 consectutive games, hurt himself falling off a table, this may not be our year. Devin Hester is really scary.
Minn (-9.5) at DAL
Confident: A team with a good running game and a solid D should never lose by nine and a half points. Plus T.O. is whining again (this week’s pet peeve: why isn’t he getting called out for this week’s antics? Saying “I’m not going to complain even though we should be throwing it deep more often and finding ways to get me the ball” IS complaining!) and Romo’s a jerk.
Hesitant: Any and everyone can pass on the Vikings, which is bad.
Pitt (+3.5) at DEN
Confident: Champ and Bly can’t stop the run. Simeon Rice (who plays for Denver this year, who knew?) is openly complaining in their papers and wishes he didn’t have to play there. No home field advantage because the Rockies have taken that town over. Javon Walker is out
Hesitant: I’m not, this one’s going to be a blowout.
Indy (+3) at JAX
Confident: Indy is really, really good and not getting any respect or attention because the Pats just may be better. Indy shows up in big regular season games (I’m still of the camp that Manning folds in the playoffs AND that he folded last year and the team won despite him in the playoffs), David Garrard is due for a INT?
Hesitant: Indy lost 44-17 at Jacksonville last year.
so this might not be our year
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
RSS feeds
So we should probably add one for 9stabs. How do I do that again? Also I promise a creative picture of PP getting stabbed in the next 18 months (or so). Scouts honor.
The Legend of Lou Williams
Right up until about 10:30 last Friday night I had absolutely written off Louis Williams as a legit NBA player. There were just too many undersized high-school shooting guards turned 2nd round busts out there and it was getting harder and harder for me to envision LouWill as anything but another carbon copy of that model. Somehow his 1.9 points and .3 assists in limited action his rookie year didn’t dispel that notion. I thought for sure we had picked up a bootleg Willie Green, and given my feelings on the original Willie Green this was not a situation which enthralled me.
Even when we sent him to the D-League (not a minute too soon) and he put up 26 and 8 I was confident that was the type of player he was – he had to be the best player on the court, and if he was he would be effective, but if he wasn’t he couldn’t contribute in other aspects of the game. He is undeniably quick, but never used that to be even a plus defender – either as a help guy covering the passing lanes or as a man guy who could give other quick guards problems – and because he’s so weak big PGs could just muscle him up. On defense I envisioned him as an ineffective AI (he still has work to go to dispel this one).
Overall, his game reminded me sort of guard version of Shareef Abdul-Rahim, where for him to be effective he would need to dominate the ball, but he if is going to dominate the ball for your team, that team is in trouble because he’s just not talented enough to lead a team. He's not 'the man' but more problamatically he can't be anything else because his game is so ball oriented.
If you’re noticing a theme here you’re right, I kept on trying to place Louis Williams into a comparison, but every mold I forced him into was a negative one, or at least one which highlighted a part of/role for his game better left out of the spotlight.
Then, while we were watching preseason during the commercial breaks of one of the LCSs, Ru casually mentioned compared him to a poor-man’s Leonardo Barbosa, a comparison that immediately changed how I now and forever will see The Louis Williams.
Barbosa, another quick, high scoring, ball-dominating scoring point guard whose probably never going to be good enough to be ‘the man’ on a team the way his play would dictate. The difference is, of course, that Barbosa is the man on that Suns team, he’s just only the man in select spots - and he plays within a system that is built to be able to facilitate his talents, but thats another topic.
With this comparison in mind I’m ready to start really digging into the legend of Lou Williams.
Louis Williams is more than just an occasional reality-tv show star and good friend of Lil’ Bow Wow (true story), he is also a former four time (!) all-state player in Georgia. Now while all-state Georgia isn't exactly New York, California, or Indiana all-state, it is still definitely all-state, and four times is just insane. He was named their “Mr. Basketball” both his junior and senior years, which is LeBron/Wanny Wags high school shit. He averaged 26.5, 5.5, and 5.5 as a freshmen.
His first dunk was as a 5’7” seventh grader and currently has a vert of over 40 inches.
This is important not just because it gives us Sixers fans something to mention about him when he does something relevant in a game (like when that Euro we drafted won a car by dunking over it, ruben get me a name here) but or because it builds upon his legend, but rather because it means that he has been absolutely murdering people his entire career. He has never not had the mindset to absolutely dominate. When he barks out instructions on the court its not because he’s trying to gain respect, its because he doesn’t know any other way to play.
We all know that LouWill hasn't done anything in the league yet, but everytime he goes down to the D-League he embarrasses people (26, 8, and just vicious embarrassment) and this preseason he's embarrassing people again (he’s been getting by everyone, dunking hard in traffic, and just taking over games late). The fact that not only is he that much better than 2nd tier NBA guys, but also that he clearly has a takeover mentality is an encouraging sign for a 20 year old kid.
This doesn’t mean he’s a finished product at all. In summer leagues this year he got to the line an impressive 12 times a game (and hit 80%) but also averaged 5.4 turnovers per game compared with just 4.7 dimes, but it may mean that he has a role to play in this league, and a high-volume scorer who doesn’t ever let the pressure off the defense is a nice role to play.
Even when we sent him to the D-League (not a minute too soon) and he put up 26 and 8 I was confident that was the type of player he was – he had to be the best player on the court, and if he was he would be effective, but if he wasn’t he couldn’t contribute in other aspects of the game. He is undeniably quick, but never used that to be even a plus defender – either as a help guy covering the passing lanes or as a man guy who could give other quick guards problems – and because he’s so weak big PGs could just muscle him up. On defense I envisioned him as an ineffective AI (he still has work to go to dispel this one).
Overall, his game reminded me sort of guard version of Shareef Abdul-Rahim, where for him to be effective he would need to dominate the ball, but he if is going to dominate the ball for your team, that team is in trouble because he’s just not talented enough to lead a team. He's not 'the man' but more problamatically he can't be anything else because his game is so ball oriented.
If you’re noticing a theme here you’re right, I kept on trying to place Louis Williams into a comparison, but every mold I forced him into was a negative one, or at least one which highlighted a part of/role for his game better left out of the spotlight.
Then, while we were watching preseason during the commercial breaks of one of the LCSs, Ru casually mentioned compared him to a poor-man’s Leonardo Barbosa, a comparison that immediately changed how I now and forever will see The Louis Williams.
Barbosa, another quick, high scoring, ball-dominating scoring point guard whose probably never going to be good enough to be ‘the man’ on a team the way his play would dictate. The difference is, of course, that Barbosa is the man on that Suns team, he’s just only the man in select spots - and he plays within a system that is built to be able to facilitate his talents, but thats another topic.
With this comparison in mind I’m ready to start really digging into the legend of Lou Williams.
Louis Williams is more than just an occasional reality-tv show star and good friend of Lil’ Bow Wow (true story), he is also a former four time (!) all-state player in Georgia. Now while all-state Georgia isn't exactly New York, California, or Indiana all-state, it is still definitely all-state, and four times is just insane. He was named their “Mr. Basketball” both his junior and senior years, which is LeBron/Wanny Wags high school shit. He averaged 26.5, 5.5, and 5.5 as a freshmen.
His first dunk was as a 5’7” seventh grader and currently has a vert of over 40 inches.
This is important not just because it gives us Sixers fans something to mention about him when he does something relevant in a game (like when that Euro we drafted won a car by dunking over it, ruben get me a name here) but or because it builds upon his legend, but rather because it means that he has been absolutely murdering people his entire career. He has never not had the mindset to absolutely dominate. When he barks out instructions on the court its not because he’s trying to gain respect, its because he doesn’t know any other way to play.
We all know that LouWill hasn't done anything in the league yet, but everytime he goes down to the D-League he embarrasses people (26, 8, and just vicious embarrassment) and this preseason he's embarrassing people again (he’s been getting by everyone, dunking hard in traffic, and just taking over games late). The fact that not only is he that much better than 2nd tier NBA guys, but also that he clearly has a takeover mentality is an encouraging sign for a 20 year old kid.
This doesn’t mean he’s a finished product at all. In summer leagues this year he got to the line an impressive 12 times a game (and hit 80%) but also averaged 5.4 turnovers per game compared with just 4.7 dimes, but it may mean that he has a role to play in this league, and a high-volume scorer who doesn’t ever let the pressure off the defense is a nice role to play.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
lets go sixers?
Sorry not to break this one up with pictures team. Maybe in an edit;
---
As Summer turns to Autumn many things change here in 9stabsLand: trees’ leaves begin to turn from the Eagles green to the Mets’ fallen and dead; summer ale’s magically become local octoberfests; we get to officially award a ‘C’ for the season (Whoo Jackson); and, of course, I take back up with love a sport I “officially” and unsuccessfully swore off at the end of it’s previous season. In this instance the sport I am swearing off is football (bye week) and the sport I’m picking back up, reservations and all, is pro basketball.
During the NBA playoffs Ru and I debated how to appropriately build a championship team. We argued about style of play, emphasis of position, how and where to allot appropriate amounts of money, what to look for in the draft, etc.
This is relevant not because we came to some clear-cut conclusion – or even because there is some clear-cut conclusion – but rather because we just assumed that the natural discussion to have when discussing the composition of a basketball team is how do players play both with each other and within a given system.
We used the example of the Spurs – who deemed the best way to build a team is to have a defined star, two next-in-line type guys who can win a game by themselves but generally don’t, and fill 4-12 with men who will run through a wall for the team. And the example of the Warriors – who exploit individual talents by running a fast-paced iso game where every man understands that they are expected to take the first good shot they have.
We could have used the example of the old Lake Show teams – get two stars and a group of one-dimensional shooters, rebounders, and defenders; the Suns/Nets – surround a point guard whose good enough to act as a coach on the floor and surround him with athletes; the old Mavs and Blazers teams – established talent at the sake of an alpha dog; the Riley Knicks – a team based around thugs who would beat you to death; the AI Sixers – one star with a team of players who look to him to score all of their points, etc. etc. etc.
All of this (and the unfortunately abrupt ending of the NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies) brings me to the topic of tonight’s lecture: our 2007/2008 Philadelphia 76ers.
As this century of Sixers basketball has shown – and the most recent summer has confirmed – Billy King does not seem to view a basketball team in these terms. It is not that this team has a bad identity, it has no personality at all. This is not a house built without a solid foundation, it is a shack of sticks held together by glue. Jason Smith, a 7 foot white power forward from Colorado is on billboards around Philadelphia. That isn’t a complimentary statement about the team.
For example, our team recently committed a good deal of money into what it imagined to be its emerging cornerstones – Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert – two players whose games are built on using their speed and athleticism to defend well and generate easy buckets (at least before Canada broke Dalembert’s foot). This would seemingly lend itself to a basic teambuilding strategy, i.e. likeminded players and a general emphasis on athletic defense which turns to easy buckets. Instead, we traded AI (a player who certainly could have fit this likeminded mold) for a half-court point guard whose game is built on guile and court knowledge, signed Kyle Korver, a smooth shooter small forward with minus athleticism and worse defense, and Willie Green who if is has a discernible basketball talent it would be “mediocre scorer” and made a move for Reggie Evans, who can only play in the half court and whose next two fast break points are going to be first. All of this and I haven’t even mentioned the Calvin Booth signing, who is neither young, athletic, nor a noted a locker room leader.
This isn’t to say that Andre Miller, Reggie Evans, and Kyle Korver are inherently bad players (Dre is a smart PG, the ball-grabber can hit the boards, and Korver would be a great option in an offense built around an elite big man with good hands) or to say that Dalembert is an inherently good player (he’s not), but rather that they are players who don’t make sense within our system at all.
However, that could be a system in itself, stockpiling assets to use in later trades a la the pre KG Celtics, but it isn’t.
In looking over this summer’s roster moves one thing jumped out at me: the Sixers traded the 30th pick (Petteri Koponen) for the 42nd pick (Derek Byers, who Mo Cheeks decided wasn’t good enough to even dress for the first preseason game!) and the 38th (the hilarious Kyrylo Fesenko) pick to Portland for the 55th pick (Herb Hill). When Billy King put AI on the block he held out strongly for two first rounders, than he took the second of those and moved it straight up (in basketball assets at least, there was a cash exchange) for a second rounder.
He traded down a total of 29 picks and picked up nothing. What is worse is that both Koponen and Fesenko are expected to be stashed in Europe this year, meaning that he traded two real assets for two guys are struggling to get preseason minutes.
In the game “how much would you pay?” I’m not sure if I have an answer to “see Billy King’s draft board.” Did he have one?
All of this is not meant to be solely an attack on the sixers however, and the team does have some positives. Even if talent wise, Miller and Igoudala shouldn’t be your clear cut two best players, they are both positives on both ends of the court and could easily be acceptable 2nd and 3rd options on good basketball teams, and I guess its plausible that the Thad Young/Rodney Carney combination gives us 12/3/3 every night, but when those are the upsides the team may be in trouble.
Deep down I am a hardline sixer fan, and despite all of my grievances I’ll be stating my complaints from the WAC all season, but I am asking for something. Losing I can take, losing philly can take (what we lack in grace we make up for in frequency) but at least give us positive losing. Let us go to war with a bunch of kids and believe that we’re going to be something eventually. And maybe I’m wrong, maybe Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans are taking us to the promise land (quick tip: they’re not), but in the meantime can we please just build a team with a concept?
---
As Summer turns to Autumn many things change here in 9stabsLand: trees’ leaves begin to turn from the Eagles green to the Mets’ fallen and dead; summer ale’s magically become local octoberfests; we get to officially award a ‘C’ for the season (Whoo Jackson); and, of course, I take back up with love a sport I “officially” and unsuccessfully swore off at the end of it’s previous season. In this instance the sport I am swearing off is football (bye week) and the sport I’m picking back up, reservations and all, is pro basketball.
During the NBA playoffs Ru and I debated how to appropriately build a championship team. We argued about style of play, emphasis of position, how and where to allot appropriate amounts of money, what to look for in the draft, etc.
This is relevant not because we came to some clear-cut conclusion – or even because there is some clear-cut conclusion – but rather because we just assumed that the natural discussion to have when discussing the composition of a basketball team is how do players play both with each other and within a given system.
We used the example of the Spurs – who deemed the best way to build a team is to have a defined star, two next-in-line type guys who can win a game by themselves but generally don’t, and fill 4-12 with men who will run through a wall for the team. And the example of the Warriors – who exploit individual talents by running a fast-paced iso game where every man understands that they are expected to take the first good shot they have.
We could have used the example of the old Lake Show teams – get two stars and a group of one-dimensional shooters, rebounders, and defenders; the Suns/Nets – surround a point guard whose good enough to act as a coach on the floor and surround him with athletes; the old Mavs and Blazers teams – established talent at the sake of an alpha dog; the Riley Knicks – a team based around thugs who would beat you to death; the AI Sixers – one star with a team of players who look to him to score all of their points, etc. etc. etc.
All of this (and the unfortunately abrupt ending of the NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies) brings me to the topic of tonight’s lecture: our 2007/2008 Philadelphia 76ers.
As this century of Sixers basketball has shown – and the most recent summer has confirmed – Billy King does not seem to view a basketball team in these terms. It is not that this team has a bad identity, it has no personality at all. This is not a house built without a solid foundation, it is a shack of sticks held together by glue. Jason Smith, a 7 foot white power forward from Colorado is on billboards around Philadelphia. That isn’t a complimentary statement about the team.
For example, our team recently committed a good deal of money into what it imagined to be its emerging cornerstones – Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert – two players whose games are built on using their speed and athleticism to defend well and generate easy buckets (at least before Canada broke Dalembert’s foot). This would seemingly lend itself to a basic teambuilding strategy, i.e. likeminded players and a general emphasis on athletic defense which turns to easy buckets. Instead, we traded AI (a player who certainly could have fit this likeminded mold) for a half-court point guard whose game is built on guile and court knowledge, signed Kyle Korver, a smooth shooter small forward with minus athleticism and worse defense, and Willie Green who if is has a discernible basketball talent it would be “mediocre scorer” and made a move for Reggie Evans, who can only play in the half court and whose next two fast break points are going to be first. All of this and I haven’t even mentioned the Calvin Booth signing, who is neither young, athletic, nor a noted a locker room leader.
This isn’t to say that Andre Miller, Reggie Evans, and Kyle Korver are inherently bad players (Dre is a smart PG, the ball-grabber can hit the boards, and Korver would be a great option in an offense built around an elite big man with good hands) or to say that Dalembert is an inherently good player (he’s not), but rather that they are players who don’t make sense within our system at all.
However, that could be a system in itself, stockpiling assets to use in later trades a la the pre KG Celtics, but it isn’t.
In looking over this summer’s roster moves one thing jumped out at me: the Sixers traded the 30th pick (Petteri Koponen) for the 42nd pick (Derek Byers, who Mo Cheeks decided wasn’t good enough to even dress for the first preseason game!) and the 38th (the hilarious Kyrylo Fesenko) pick to Portland for the 55th pick (Herb Hill). When Billy King put AI on the block he held out strongly for two first rounders, than he took the second of those and moved it straight up (in basketball assets at least, there was a cash exchange) for a second rounder.
He traded down a total of 29 picks and picked up nothing. What is worse is that both Koponen and Fesenko are expected to be stashed in Europe this year, meaning that he traded two real assets for two guys are struggling to get preseason minutes.
In the game “how much would you pay?” I’m not sure if I have an answer to “see Billy King’s draft board.” Did he have one?
All of this is not meant to be solely an attack on the sixers however, and the team does have some positives. Even if talent wise, Miller and Igoudala shouldn’t be your clear cut two best players, they are both positives on both ends of the court and could easily be acceptable 2nd and 3rd options on good basketball teams, and I guess its plausible that the Thad Young/Rodney Carney combination gives us 12/3/3 every night, but when those are the upsides the team may be in trouble.
Deep down I am a hardline sixer fan, and despite all of my grievances I’ll be stating my complaints from the WAC all season, but I am asking for something. Losing I can take, losing philly can take (what we lack in grace we make up for in frequency) but at least give us positive losing. Let us go to war with a bunch of kids and believe that we’re going to be something eventually. And maybe I’m wrong, maybe Calvin Booth and Reggie Evans are taking us to the promise land (quick tip: they’re not), but in the meantime can we please just build a team with a concept?
Sunday, October 7, 2007
week 4 picks / reaction
Ru, right now there is very little I can say I texted my father "why did you have to raise me a philly fan?" today and today I mean that. I love my teams, I'll always love my teams, but I can barely say their names today. Thank god its a bye week as I give my picks ... (without my anecdotes and quotes)
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
they just have to win.
Jax (-2) at KC
Kansas City got their win last week. I refuse to believe the Jags are that bad.
WAS (-3.5) over Dey-twa
3-1 my ass. Any team that we can can hang 56 on can't be that good.
Falcons (+8) over TITANS
I love VY to win, but I hate him to ever cover a +7 spread.
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Andre Johnson back?
PIT (-6) over Seattle
Tomlin has no mercy at home. That and that seahawks stink.
PATS (-16.5) over Cle
I don't believe in this game at all, and if I had to bet I would wager the other way ... but this season I've learned never go on record against Brady and Moss
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS
Another game I think I'm wrong in ... 0 loss teams always come out hard and Wisensomething has lost his team. That said, the rams blow.
Jets (+3.5) over GIANTS
AFC/NFC rule. I hate this game though, which is becoming a theme of the evening.
INDY (-9.5) over tampa
people forget that this Manning is really, really, good.
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
If they don't, all hell breaks loose. Plus Denver's corners don't mean much against Gates and LDT.
Ravens (-3) over NINERS
For all the heat they've been getting, God's defense can still man the fuck up.
Chi (+3) over FAVRE
Green bay just isn't a 5-0 tea, amd Chi isn't bad enough to only have one game
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS
I hate the cowboys, but Trent Edwards sn't ready for prime time at all
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers
they just have to win.
Jax (-2) at KC
Kansas City got their win last week. I refuse to believe the Jags are that bad.
WAS (-3.5) over Dey-twa
3-1 my ass. Any team that we can can hang 56 on can't be that good.
Falcons (+8) over TITANS
I love VY to win, but I hate him to ever cover a +7 spread.
TEXANS (-5.5) over Dolphins
Andre Johnson back?
PIT (-6) over Seattle
Tomlin has no mercy at home. That and that seahawks stink.
PATS (-16.5) over Cle
I don't believe in this game at all, and if I had to bet I would wager the other way ... but this season I've learned never go on record against Brady and Moss
Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS
Another game I think I'm wrong in ... 0 loss teams always come out hard and Wisensomething has lost his team. That said, the rams blow.
Jets (+3.5) over GIANTS
AFC/NFC rule. I hate this game though, which is becoming a theme of the evening.
INDY (-9.5) over tampa
people forget that this Manning is really, really, good.
Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS
If they don't, all hell breaks loose. Plus Denver's corners don't mean much against Gates and LDT.
Ravens (-3) over NINERS
For all the heat they've been getting, God's defense can still man the fuck up.
Chi (+3) over FAVRE
Green bay just isn't a 5-0 tea, amd Chi isn't bad enough to only have one game
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS
I hate the cowboys, but Trent Edwards sn't ready for prime time at all
Saturday, October 6, 2007
More Frustration
Another frustrating end to a Philly sports season, with only the Flyers now to look forward to at all for the next 6 months. But something about this sweep stung worse than I thought it would; it was as frustrating a loss as I've seen since the 2004 NFC championship game against the Panthers.
What does it for me, though, what makes this series hurt especially bad is the Phillies' obstinance in doing things their way, regardless of opponent or situation. This is essentially the same core of guys that couldn't stand Bowa because he actually wanted them to fix their shortcomings, rather than the beloved Charlie, who just tells them to do what they feel comfortable with. In this series, we went against 3 filthy pitchers (including 2 lefties), and made not one adjustment.
Beale, me and you have discussed this before. A few times this year (always after a game in which our bats go silent), I've pointed out how much I wish some of our guys would change their approach at the plate, and occasionally shorten up or try to go oppo. Your point is that we have the highest scoring offense and there's no need to change anything, to which my reply is usually something along the lines of "it works in a long regular season against average pitchers, but might not in a short series against good pitching." Same argument I make for why Burrell is useless, even when he's in a hot streak. Well, in this series we faced good pitching, continued to try to pull everything 500 feet, and we hit .173.
Tonight we struck out 8 times. Not out of the ordinary for us. What bothered me most during the game, and looking it up now it still does, is that our lefty hitters grounded out to 2nd base 7 times. Just the lefty hitters; just to 2nd base. Having hit my fair share of weak grounders to shortstop as a righty, I know that this happens when you try to pull an outside pitch. Usually as simple as that. (Just for kicks, we had 3 hits to the opposite field in the whole series -- including 1 by Hamels). These numbers themselves aren't inherently killers, but what did kill us is that we refused to ever shorten up and put the ball in play, a strategy which would be especially useful against 2 rookies like Morales and Jimenez, who would be easy to frustrate if you can slap a couple of hits even when they make their pitch. You may tell me I'm crazy for suggesting Utley, Jimmy, or Howard shorten up and drive the ball to left, but you are also the same person who would make the argument that a 3pt shooter (or a 3pt shooting team) that has gone cold would be wise to try to get some layups or transition buckets to get going. Or like how Andy Reid -- who rarely ever max protects -- watching his new left tackle getting dominated by a decent D-end would decide to put a tight end out there to help. Of course he never did do that and instead stuck to his guns. The result: our team gave up 12 sacks. Changing one's approach is not an admission of failure, it's a way of getting something ignited when the other team is taking away your normal game.
For example, I remember watching the Tribe completely frustrate Hamels in a game earlier this year by simply taking his changeup and hitting his fastball the other way. Hell, last night they won a playoff game on a walk-off hit in which their cleanup hitter took about a half swing on the deciding hit. The ball Hafner hit went as far in the air as it could have (about 180 feet), given his swing. And it dropped. And his team is up 2-0. Meanwhile, fresh in my mind is the Rockies pitchers throwing us hard stuff in and slow stuff down and away, and our hitters trying to pull all of it. That can work against mediocre pitching, but will get you swept in the playoffs. Until our players realize that they aren't God's gift to hitting and decide to devote themselves to doing whatever possible to get on base, we will continue to struggle against good pitching in a short series.
What does it for me, though, what makes this series hurt especially bad is the Phillies' obstinance in doing things their way, regardless of opponent or situation. This is essentially the same core of guys that couldn't stand Bowa because he actually wanted them to fix their shortcomings, rather than the beloved Charlie, who just tells them to do what they feel comfortable with. In this series, we went against 3 filthy pitchers (including 2 lefties), and made not one adjustment.
Beale, me and you have discussed this before. A few times this year (always after a game in which our bats go silent), I've pointed out how much I wish some of our guys would change their approach at the plate, and occasionally shorten up or try to go oppo. Your point is that we have the highest scoring offense and there's no need to change anything, to which my reply is usually something along the lines of "it works in a long regular season against average pitchers, but might not in a short series against good pitching." Same argument I make for why Burrell is useless, even when he's in a hot streak. Well, in this series we faced good pitching, continued to try to pull everything 500 feet, and we hit .173.
Tonight we struck out 8 times. Not out of the ordinary for us. What bothered me most during the game, and looking it up now it still does, is that our lefty hitters grounded out to 2nd base 7 times. Just the lefty hitters; just to 2nd base. Having hit my fair share of weak grounders to shortstop as a righty, I know that this happens when you try to pull an outside pitch. Usually as simple as that. (Just for kicks, we had 3 hits to the opposite field in the whole series -- including 1 by Hamels). These numbers themselves aren't inherently killers, but what did kill us is that we refused to ever shorten up and put the ball in play, a strategy which would be especially useful against 2 rookies like Morales and Jimenez, who would be easy to frustrate if you can slap a couple of hits even when they make their pitch. You may tell me I'm crazy for suggesting Utley, Jimmy, or Howard shorten up and drive the ball to left, but you are also the same person who would make the argument that a 3pt shooter (or a 3pt shooting team) that has gone cold would be wise to try to get some layups or transition buckets to get going. Or like how Andy Reid -- who rarely ever max protects -- watching his new left tackle getting dominated by a decent D-end would decide to put a tight end out there to help. Of course he never did do that and instead stuck to his guns. The result: our team gave up 12 sacks. Changing one's approach is not an admission of failure, it's a way of getting something ignited when the other team is taking away your normal game.
For example, I remember watching the Tribe completely frustrate Hamels in a game earlier this year by simply taking his changeup and hitting his fastball the other way. Hell, last night they won a playoff game on a walk-off hit in which their cleanup hitter took about a half swing on the deciding hit. The ball Hafner hit went as far in the air as it could have (about 180 feet), given his swing. And it dropped. And his team is up 2-0. Meanwhile, fresh in my mind is the Rockies pitchers throwing us hard stuff in and slow stuff down and away, and our hitters trying to pull all of it. That can work against mediocre pitching, but will get you swept in the playoffs. Until our players realize that they aren't God's gift to hitting and decide to devote themselves to doing whatever possible to get on base, we will continue to struggle against good pitching in a short series.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Week 4 Picks
Last week: 5-9-2 Season: 5-9-2
First off, i could care less about the games this week other than Phillies-Nats and Eagles-Giants. But for kicks, here's my picks.
Oakland (+4) vs. MIAMI
I still think Oakland is ok, and even though Miami could well win this game (they have to win at least once, right?), I don't think it will be by more than 3.
Houston (-2.5) vs ATLANTA
Revenge game for Matt Schaub. And Houston is legit.
CLEVELAND (+4) vs Baltimore
I think the Browns could definitely win this game. They're at home, they despise the Ravens, and Baltimore really isn't all that good this year.
Bears (-3) vs LIONS
After watching Detroit last week, they really play no defense. I think with Griese tossing (I'm hoping to bring that term to QBs in football), the Bears should be able to put enough points to win this one easily.
VIKINGS (+2) vs Packers
I know the Packers are good, and Favre has gotten over that Metrodome mediocrity he used to have. Still, though, I think the Packers might be a little flat after that win over San Diego and the Vikings can shut down their offense and make it a low scoring game.
COWBOYS (-13) vs Rams
I despise the Cowboys, but they are damn good this year and the Rams are just atrocious. Brian Leonard will also be starting at running back for St. Louis, which may well be the first white starting back since Travis Jervey somehow got on the field for Green Bay. That usually spells disaster.
BILLS (+3.5) vs Jets
I only picked the Bills since I was on the fence about this game, and in doubt I'll go with the home team, especially if they're getting points. I'm starting to get off the Jets bandwagon after a nice year-long ride.
PANTHERS (-3) vs Bucs
I have no statistical evidence for this because I don't feel like looking this up on espn.com, but it feels like the Panthers always win this game.
49ERS (+2) vs Seahawks
I'm still not sure that Seattle is good enough to win a road division game against a decent team. Also, I can never pick a team with two die-hard Bush supporters.
Steelers(-6) vs CARDS
Arizona is a little bit too popular of a pick in this game. Even though this game wreaks of a good team flying across the country to play a bad one and laying an egg, I'll still put my money on Willie Parker making enough plays to win this game. Whether it's by 6, I don't know, but I'll take it.
CHARGERS (-12) vs Chiefs
San Diego has to get right soon. They should get up for this game since it's against a rival, and KC is god awful.
COLTS (-10 ) vs Broncos
Eagles (-3) vs GIANTS
BENGALS (+7.5) vs Patriots
First off, i could care less about the games this week other than Phillies-Nats and Eagles-Giants. But for kicks, here's my picks.
Oakland (+4) vs. MIAMI
I still think Oakland is ok, and even though Miami could well win this game (they have to win at least once, right?), I don't think it will be by more than 3.
Houston (-2.5) vs ATLANTA
Revenge game for Matt Schaub. And Houston is legit.
CLEVELAND (+4) vs Baltimore
I think the Browns could definitely win this game. They're at home, they despise the Ravens, and Baltimore really isn't all that good this year.
Bears (-3) vs LIONS
After watching Detroit last week, they really play no defense. I think with Griese tossing (I'm hoping to bring that term to QBs in football), the Bears should be able to put enough points to win this one easily.
VIKINGS (+2) vs Packers
I know the Packers are good, and Favre has gotten over that Metrodome mediocrity he used to have. Still, though, I think the Packers might be a little flat after that win over San Diego and the Vikings can shut down their offense and make it a low scoring game.
COWBOYS (-13) vs Rams
I despise the Cowboys, but they are damn good this year and the Rams are just atrocious. Brian Leonard will also be starting at running back for St. Louis, which may well be the first white starting back since Travis Jervey somehow got on the field for Green Bay. That usually spells disaster.
BILLS (+3.5) vs Jets
I only picked the Bills since I was on the fence about this game, and in doubt I'll go with the home team, especially if they're getting points. I'm starting to get off the Jets bandwagon after a nice year-long ride.
PANTHERS (-3) vs Bucs
I have no statistical evidence for this because I don't feel like looking this up on espn.com, but it feels like the Panthers always win this game.
49ERS (+2) vs Seahawks
I'm still not sure that Seattle is good enough to win a road division game against a decent team. Also, I can never pick a team with two die-hard Bush supporters.
Steelers(-6) vs CARDS
Arizona is a little bit too popular of a pick in this game. Even though this game wreaks of a good team flying across the country to play a bad one and laying an egg, I'll still put my money on Willie Parker making enough plays to win this game. Whether it's by 6, I don't know, but I'll take it.
CHARGERS (-12) vs Chiefs
San Diego has to get right soon. They should get up for this game since it's against a rival, and KC is god awful.
COLTS (-10 ) vs Broncos
Eagles (-3) vs GIANTS
BENGALS (+7.5) vs Patriots
Friday, September 28, 2007
the phillies have a magic number
While the mets remain about as clutch as Billy Wagner, thanks to Ryan Howard, J-Roll and the best game Cole Hamels has ever thrown in his young life, your national league east leading (!) philadelphia phillies have a magic number of two.
Bring it home Jimmy.
Bring it home Jimmy.
week 4 picks.
Sugar Shane Mosley! Say it ain’t so! Onto the picks …
BMore (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
Why I’m confident: Jamal Lewis said publicly that he has more gaps to run through in Cleveland than he ever had with the Ravens. Now I’m not Jamal Lewis, who for accounts is a pretty tough guy (see: Jail, 2000 yards), but if I was I wouldn’t want to upset God’s linebacker and his murderous teammates.
Why I’m hesitant: The ravens have been showing a tendency to let teams hang around, and they haven’t put together one complete game together.
MIAMI (-3.5) over Oak
Why I’m confident: Joey Porter guaranteed me that Miami would win, ts the Dante Culpepper bowl! Emotions will run high, Miami is making Oakland wear black, thinking that it ill fry them, Miami always plays better in the beginning of the year (knowing that this team may actually get worse is a terrifying thought).
Why I’m hesitant: Zach Thomas isn’t cleared medically yet (but expects to play), the weather is only supposed to be in the high-70s/low 80s, Oakland can still play D, which gives them one more competent unit than the Dolphins,
Bears (-3) at DETRIOT
Why I’m confident: I’ve been arguing this for years … Detroit was founded as a French city, its proper pronunciation is Dey-twa (like Chris Benoit’s last name), can we start a movement to fix this wrong while at the same time infuriating the entire city? I hope so. Also, Chicago is way better.
Why I’m hesitant: the Griese switch was overdue for reasons that every sportswriter in America echoed last year, but on a team with a secondary this bad it seems like the type of game Grossman would totally have gone off in. Intra-division game.
Houston (-3) at ATL
Why I’m confident: Matt Schaub bowl. Texans seem good, falcons seem bad.
Why I’m hesitant: I start with an anecdote. After DeAngelo Hall’s miserable performance last week (67 yards in penalties, sideline confrontation with his own coach) the team was strongly considering suspending him for a game (to which he said something along the lines of “I would welcome it”). Anyway, the hot rumor going around the league is that they opted to not publicly discipline him because his own team handled it behind closed doors. We’re not talking about a “players only meeting” in the typical sense though … rumor has it several veterans actually took Hall behind closed doors and literally kicked his ass. Seems like the type of amazing story that could right a ship.
Green Bay (-1.5) at MINNY
Why I’m confident: I hate how everyone keeps talking about how Farve has such a bad overall record at Minny (he does) but keeps on neglecting that he’s won 3 out of the last 4 four there, which seems equally relevant. Minnesota’s best quality is their ability to stop the run. The fact that the Packers never run (11 rushing attempts last Sunday!) would seem to nullify that advantage.
Why I’m hesitant: Farve does stink there, Minnesota can stop the run. Packers are the NFL’s youngest team (strange but true) and they’re playing in a rivalry game.
Jets (-3) at BUF
Why I’m confident: the Trent Edwards era is upon us, Buffalo is last in total offense AND last in totally defense.
Why I’m hesitant: I’ve picked the road team in 4 out of 5 games so far AND I’ve picked every favorite, neither of which is good signs (then again, neither is the Trent Edwards era, I’m pretty confident here)
St. Louis (+12.5) at FUCK THE COWBOYS
Why I’m confident: fuck the cowboys
Why I’m hesitant: Steven Jackson is out, three of their lineman are out, Bulger is has two cracked ribs but is still playing, Dallas has looked good and St. Louis awful.
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
Why I’m confident: I just can’t keep picking every road team? Real-life Julius Peppers (hereinafter “RFJP”) doesn’t have a sack yet, but James’ Madden-team Julius Peppers (“JMTJP”) has like 17, which means RFJP is totally due.
Why I’m hesitant: I like Tampa and this line seems wrong. The Panthers are expected to wait until Sunday to announce their starting QB (note, this also doubles as a “why I’m confient” … when the decision is between Jake Delhomme and David Carr I just can’t imagine it being a huge distraction)
Seattle (-1) at SANFRAN
Why I’m confident: both of these teams seem like they should be 2-2, if Seattle wants the division a statement game would be nice.
Why I’m hesitant: Shaun Alexander spells his name stupidly and has a broken hand, SF swept them last week.
SD (-11.5) over Kansas City
Why I’m confident: KC got their big win last week, won’t see too many of them. Tomlinson gets on tract, Rivers can’t be this bad, and Gates continues his pace towards shattering the NFL single season receptions record. Once upon a time the Chargers were really, really good.
Why I’m hesitant: 11.5
ZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh
Why I’m confident: A coordinator always holds a big advantage against his team, and Ari has two of them (Grimm and their polarizing coach).
Why I’m hesitant: The two-headed monster that is Matt Leinhart and Kurt Warner going against a team that has looked legit through three weeks
INDY (-9.5) over Denver
Why I’m confident: Manning owns Denver.
Why I’m hesitant: Indy only beats teams by single digits these days.
Good Guys (-2.5) at NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Why I’m confident: Manning still stinks, they can’t play defense, they don’t have a running back, Kevin Curtis has established himself as the premier WR in all of football, Brian Westbrook could play for the Phillies he has so much talent and heart, their QB has never been scrutinized and therefore has not properly developed his game, it’s a prime time game and we love that, Plax is beat up.
Why I’m hesitant: this doesn’t make he hesitant but is a true story: Giants RB Derrick Ward is on pace to catch more passes this season than Tiki Barber ever did. That’s why early season is fun. Seriously though, if we drop this game we stink again. I’m not ready for that.
CINCY (+7) over New England
Why I’m confident: What the hell, I’ll be the one person in America who doesn’t take NE and suffer the points this week.
Why I’m hesitant: logic, common sense, cheating.
BMore (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
Why I’m confident: Jamal Lewis said publicly that he has more gaps to run through in Cleveland than he ever had with the Ravens. Now I’m not Jamal Lewis, who for accounts is a pretty tough guy (see: Jail, 2000 yards), but if I was I wouldn’t want to upset God’s linebacker and his murderous teammates.
Why I’m hesitant: The ravens have been showing a tendency to let teams hang around, and they haven’t put together one complete game together.
MIAMI (-3.5) over Oak
Why I’m confident: Joey Porter guaranteed me that Miami would win, ts the Dante Culpepper bowl! Emotions will run high, Miami is making Oakland wear black, thinking that it ill fry them, Miami always plays better in the beginning of the year (knowing that this team may actually get worse is a terrifying thought).
Why I’m hesitant: Zach Thomas isn’t cleared medically yet (but expects to play), the weather is only supposed to be in the high-70s/low 80s, Oakland can still play D, which gives them one more competent unit than the Dolphins,
Bears (-3) at DETRIOT
Why I’m confident: I’ve been arguing this for years … Detroit was founded as a French city, its proper pronunciation is Dey-twa (like Chris Benoit’s last name), can we start a movement to fix this wrong while at the same time infuriating the entire city? I hope so. Also, Chicago is way better.
Why I’m hesitant: the Griese switch was overdue for reasons that every sportswriter in America echoed last year, but on a team with a secondary this bad it seems like the type of game Grossman would totally have gone off in. Intra-division game.
Houston (-3) at ATL
Why I’m confident: Matt Schaub bowl. Texans seem good, falcons seem bad.
Why I’m hesitant: I start with an anecdote. After DeAngelo Hall’s miserable performance last week (67 yards in penalties, sideline confrontation with his own coach) the team was strongly considering suspending him for a game (to which he said something along the lines of “I would welcome it”). Anyway, the hot rumor going around the league is that they opted to not publicly discipline him because his own team handled it behind closed doors. We’re not talking about a “players only meeting” in the typical sense though … rumor has it several veterans actually took Hall behind closed doors and literally kicked his ass. Seems like the type of amazing story that could right a ship.
Green Bay (-1.5) at MINNY
Why I’m confident: I hate how everyone keeps talking about how Farve has such a bad overall record at Minny (he does) but keeps on neglecting that he’s won 3 out of the last 4 four there, which seems equally relevant. Minnesota’s best quality is their ability to stop the run. The fact that the Packers never run (11 rushing attempts last Sunday!) would seem to nullify that advantage.
Why I’m hesitant: Farve does stink there, Minnesota can stop the run. Packers are the NFL’s youngest team (strange but true) and they’re playing in a rivalry game.
Jets (-3) at BUF
Why I’m confident: the Trent Edwards era is upon us, Buffalo is last in total offense AND last in totally defense.
Why I’m hesitant: I’ve picked the road team in 4 out of 5 games so far AND I’ve picked every favorite, neither of which is good signs (then again, neither is the Trent Edwards era, I’m pretty confident here)
St. Louis (+12.5) at FUCK THE COWBOYS
Why I’m confident: fuck the cowboys
Why I’m hesitant: Steven Jackson is out, three of their lineman are out, Bulger is has two cracked ribs but is still playing, Dallas has looked good and St. Louis awful.
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
Why I’m confident: I just can’t keep picking every road team? Real-life Julius Peppers (hereinafter “RFJP”) doesn’t have a sack yet, but James’ Madden-team Julius Peppers (“JMTJP”) has like 17, which means RFJP is totally due.
Why I’m hesitant: I like Tampa and this line seems wrong. The Panthers are expected to wait until Sunday to announce their starting QB (note, this also doubles as a “why I’m confient” … when the decision is between Jake Delhomme and David Carr I just can’t imagine it being a huge distraction)
Seattle (-1) at SANFRAN
Why I’m confident: both of these teams seem like they should be 2-2, if Seattle wants the division a statement game would be nice.
Why I’m hesitant: Shaun Alexander spells his name stupidly and has a broken hand, SF swept them last week.
SD (-11.5) over Kansas City
Why I’m confident: KC got their big win last week, won’t see too many of them. Tomlinson gets on tract, Rivers can’t be this bad, and Gates continues his pace towards shattering the NFL single season receptions record. Once upon a time the Chargers were really, really good.
Why I’m hesitant: 11.5
ZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh
Why I’m confident: A coordinator always holds a big advantage against his team, and Ari has two of them (Grimm and their polarizing coach).
Why I’m hesitant: The two-headed monster that is Matt Leinhart and Kurt Warner going against a team that has looked legit through three weeks
INDY (-9.5) over Denver
Why I’m confident: Manning owns Denver.
Why I’m hesitant: Indy only beats teams by single digits these days.
Good Guys (-2.5) at NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Why I’m confident: Manning still stinks, they can’t play defense, they don’t have a running back, Kevin Curtis has established himself as the premier WR in all of football, Brian Westbrook could play for the Phillies he has so much talent and heart, their QB has never been scrutinized and therefore has not properly developed his game, it’s a prime time game and we love that, Plax is beat up.
Why I’m hesitant: this doesn’t make he hesitant but is a true story: Giants RB Derrick Ward is on pace to catch more passes this season than Tiki Barber ever did. That’s why early season is fun. Seriously though, if we drop this game we stink again. I’m not ready for that.
CINCY (+7) over New England
Why I’m confident: What the hell, I’ll be the one person in America who doesn’t take NE and suffer the points this week.
Why I’m hesitant: logic, common sense, cheating.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
great fucking win
NL EAST LEADERING PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
God, when they announce that tomorrow the place is going to go insane. Something tells me we're a little more excited about our position at the top than our tied-up foes, the free-falling Mets.
NFL picks and Sixers preview on the way, but none of that really matter right now. GO PHILS
God, when they announce that tomorrow the place is going to go insane. Something tells me we're a little more excited about our position at the top than our tied-up foes, the free-falling Mets.
NFL picks and Sixers preview on the way, but none of that really matter right now. GO PHILS
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Philadelphia and the Battle of Bannockburn
With a week to go in the Phillies season, history is not on our side. Not only are we statistically speaking the biggest losers to ever be allowed to play professional sports, but we’ve also won an incredible amount of games over the last four seasons for a team that never got to play in October during that time. It is nearly impossible to finish with the consecutive seasons the Phillies have had and to never have made the playoffs. You would think Philadelphia would be pessimistic right now, you would think that we know we’re going to find a way to fail – all our teams do, and the Phillies often with the gusto most of the group.
A common criticism of hardcore sports fans is that it is childish to affiliate ourselves with anything so apparently immaterial, consciously contrived and commercially exploitative as a professional sports team. The same way in which we look at tabloid-obsessed women over their love of Brangenlia (I get that one right?) so does much of the free world scoff at us. Those worries – that we are childish, and that in a time of war and global crisis our energy is misplaced – do not seem to bother Philadelphia fans in the least.
What does bothers us is not that our caring – real, deep, serious, emotionative caring – is trivial; but rather it is that our caring always comes back to burn us. We have no fear of the love itself, but do feel that it will inevitably break our hearts. Because of this we have learned to distrust winning, to hate the players, the coaches, and the general managers of the teams who tease us with failed dreams of a chip year in and year out.
This Phillies team has changed that. For the first time in a long time, pennant or no, this season has been a success. We love this team in spite of the fact that they will break our hearts, not just up to the moment when they inevitably will.
In my experience there have been two real stars in Philadelphia that have gotten a pass despite not winning a championship – Dykstra and AI. We blamed Dykstra’s team and AI’s management, but the two individuals were off limits to fans because when they were on the field, when the ball was in play, they didn’t care about their career at all, they cared about making the play.
I remember Lenny doing an interview one day during the 93 summer about how foolish the drag bunt was, how charging at the pitcher mid-pitch was an invitation to get a hand broken and that Larry Bowa – his third base coach at the time and a man who had made the move famous in Philadelphia – was a moron for ever trying it. That weekend – no joke – the phillies needed a baserunner (bottom of the 8th down a run, or something close to it) and Dykstra was up. After seeing a few pitches he had apparently figured out some tell, broke towards the mound during the windup, laid down the drag bunt perfectly and beat it out for a single.
AI stories like that are a dime a dozen. I remember there was an awful snowstorm in the middle of the AI epoch – a blizzard had hit Philly that was bad enough that most players were late arriving, and the organization was threatening to postpone the game. Iverson finally arrived and ran into a Sixers exec on his way to the locker room. The exec stopped him and told him the game might not go on. AI couldn't understand, "we got four guys?" he asked confused, he was told yes, "then lets go!" He ran down the hall, they played the game, and won.
They were both fucking ballplayers, and even though they had obvious physical limitations they cared like we cared, we didn’t have to trust in winning because we trusted in them. It wasn’t that Dykstra didn’t believe what he said about drag bunting – he was always injured and it was a stupid risk – it was that he didn’t care, and because of that we loved them.
Our well known history of turning on players, however, creates a much longer list – Wilt, Sir Charles (who I drank with this weekend, solid guy), McNabb, Jaworski, Lindross, Rolen, even Schmidt could start it – and all those guys are/were legitimate superstars.
This team seems made up of guys out of the Dykstra/AI mold. When the ball is in play, Jimmy, Chase, Utley, Victorino … they don’t care about their careers, they care about making the play. This is a team made up of guys who try to run through a wall with their face for us, a team full of mockers, winners, clutch hitters and fun. If the increasingly less infamous Leyland/Uncle Cholly decision was being made today, Leyland would have a hard time finding ways to gut this team.
So maybe we have an long history of 1 championship in 124 years, and a short one of coming up just short, but AI never had Dykstra. This team may have both.
And if they don’t, I think Philly may understand if our Battle of Bannockburn waits one more year - a luxury McNoww doesn’t not.
A common criticism of hardcore sports fans is that it is childish to affiliate ourselves with anything so apparently immaterial, consciously contrived and commercially exploitative as a professional sports team. The same way in which we look at tabloid-obsessed women over their love of Brangenlia (I get that one right?) so does much of the free world scoff at us. Those worries – that we are childish, and that in a time of war and global crisis our energy is misplaced – do not seem to bother Philadelphia fans in the least.
What does bothers us is not that our caring – real, deep, serious, emotionative caring – is trivial; but rather it is that our caring always comes back to burn us. We have no fear of the love itself, but do feel that it will inevitably break our hearts. Because of this we have learned to distrust winning, to hate the players, the coaches, and the general managers of the teams who tease us with failed dreams of a chip year in and year out.
This Phillies team has changed that. For the first time in a long time, pennant or no, this season has been a success. We love this team in spite of the fact that they will break our hearts, not just up to the moment when they inevitably will.
In my experience there have been two real stars in Philadelphia that have gotten a pass despite not winning a championship – Dykstra and AI. We blamed Dykstra’s team and AI’s management, but the two individuals were off limits to fans because when they were on the field, when the ball was in play, they didn’t care about their career at all, they cared about making the play.
I remember Lenny doing an interview one day during the 93 summer about how foolish the drag bunt was, how charging at the pitcher mid-pitch was an invitation to get a hand broken and that Larry Bowa – his third base coach at the time and a man who had made the move famous in Philadelphia – was a moron for ever trying it. That weekend – no joke – the phillies needed a baserunner (bottom of the 8th down a run, or something close to it) and Dykstra was up. After seeing a few pitches he had apparently figured out some tell, broke towards the mound during the windup, laid down the drag bunt perfectly and beat it out for a single.
AI stories like that are a dime a dozen. I remember there was an awful snowstorm in the middle of the AI epoch – a blizzard had hit Philly that was bad enough that most players were late arriving, and the organization was threatening to postpone the game. Iverson finally arrived and ran into a Sixers exec on his way to the locker room. The exec stopped him and told him the game might not go on. AI couldn't understand, "we got four guys?" he asked confused, he was told yes, "then lets go!" He ran down the hall, they played the game, and won.
They were both fucking ballplayers, and even though they had obvious physical limitations they cared like we cared, we didn’t have to trust in winning because we trusted in them. It wasn’t that Dykstra didn’t believe what he said about drag bunting – he was always injured and it was a stupid risk – it was that he didn’t care, and because of that we loved them.
Our well known history of turning on players, however, creates a much longer list – Wilt, Sir Charles (who I drank with this weekend, solid guy), McNabb, Jaworski, Lindross, Rolen, even Schmidt could start it – and all those guys are/were legitimate superstars.
This team seems made up of guys out of the Dykstra/AI mold. When the ball is in play, Jimmy, Chase, Utley, Victorino … they don’t care about their careers, they care about making the play. This is a team made up of guys who try to run through a wall with their face for us, a team full of mockers, winners, clutch hitters and fun. If the increasingly less infamous Leyland/Uncle Cholly decision was being made today, Leyland would have a hard time finding ways to gut this team.
So maybe we have an long history of 1 championship in 124 years, and a short one of coming up just short, but AI never had Dykstra. This team may have both.
And if they don’t, I think Philly may understand if our Battle of Bannockburn waits one more year - a luxury McNoww doesn’t not.
Monday, September 24, 2007
13, 12, 56 and questions
I hate to be that guy, but while sunday's game certainly shows the haters that McNabb is back it may (unfortunately) also show that he never left. Rod Marinelli, the lions coach, cut his teeth with Tampa Bay when they were developing the cover two. That system was so effective that it really became ingrained in the coaches that came out of that system (Dungy, Kiffin, Lovie Smith, Marinelli off the top of my head but I feel like I'm missing someone). Marinelli came to that team in the beginning of that, 1996, and stayed in it for 10 years (six as a D-Line coach, four as assistant head coach).
The Tampa two was how he got a name in the NFL, and it gave him a lot of recognition and success. However, its not a good basic defense against this eagles team. The T2 still can be a dominant base D and it has a lot of advantages, but those advantages (ideally forces teams into control gained, can "zone out" excellent individual receivers) are not suited to beat the Birds. The Eagles couldn't get a passing game going in the first two weeks because both GB and Washington pressed our receivers right off the line. Detroit's scheme doesn't allow their corners to bump us against us, which in turn lets our timing-based offense a chance to flourish. If Curtis can get free McNabb can throw to his spot, if not it looks like he's overthrowing WRs and CBs by five yards - which happened a lot the first two weeks.
Look, sunday was a great win, and none of Westbrook's yards can be attributed to a timing offense, but we may want to be a little more tempered before we crown these guys champions.
On the plus side the new york football giants don't play any defense at all - save hoping that the opposing team's running back trips over himself - so we may just be able to keep this up a little longer.
The Tampa two was how he got a name in the NFL, and it gave him a lot of recognition and success. However, its not a good basic defense against this eagles team. The T2 still can be a dominant base D and it has a lot of advantages, but those advantages (ideally forces teams into control gained, can "zone out" excellent individual receivers) are not suited to beat the Birds. The Eagles couldn't get a passing game going in the first two weeks because both GB and Washington pressed our receivers right off the line. Detroit's scheme doesn't allow their corners to bump us against us, which in turn lets our timing-based offense a chance to flourish. If Curtis can get free McNabb can throw to his spot, if not it looks like he's overthrowing WRs and CBs by five yards - which happened a lot the first two weeks.
Look, sunday was a great win, and none of Westbrook's yards can be attributed to a timing offense, but we may want to be a little more tempered before we crown these guys champions.
On the plus side the new york football giants don't play any defense at all - save hoping that the opposing team's running back trips over himself - so we may just be able to keep this up a little longer.
Kevin Kolb: not black enough
So Kolb gets into the action by getting sacked and fumbling on the first drop-back of his pro career then rushed 3 times for negative yards to end the game (and don't tell me nothing about "kneel downs" not counting as "real runs" - nothing is whiter than a kneel down.
Being unable to avoid the rush and negative overall running yards are truly the calling cards of immobile whities. A quarterblack Kolb is not, the McNabb era will continue until Kolb starts to {insert favorite minority stereotype} because McNabb does things that will quell criticism of and from any race – win.
and thats the last I'll have to say about race for at least several minutes ... The Birds are headed to the playoffs and I'm in the midst of writing about why Philadelphia loves this Phillies team. All is good in the world once more.
Being unable to avoid the rush and negative overall running yards are truly the calling cards of immobile whities. A quarterblack Kolb is not, the McNabb era will continue until Kolb starts to {insert favorite minority stereotype} because McNabb does things that will quell criticism of and from any race – win.
and thats the last I'll have to say about race for at least several minutes ... The Birds are headed to the playoffs and I'm in the midst of writing about why Philadelphia loves this Phillies team. All is good in the world once more.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Vegas' week 3 picks
Because I got the nickname 'vegas' at school, i think it's fair game to use here. Here are my picks for week 3 (HOME team in caps):
- Lions (+6) over EAGLES
This line is absurd. Granted, the Lions haven't beaten anybody this year, but we ACTUALLY haven't beaten anybody. Right now, I don't think we're 6 points better than the Lions, unless Kitna craps the bed and all of our injured studs play. Our defense is old and slow, and just isn't very good anymore, and McNabb is clearly not even close to back yet.
- TEXANS (+6) over Colts
Despite not having seen them play, I like this team. Their defense in underrated (finished 5th in points allowed in '06) and even without Andre Johnson, I think they're good enough to hang in this game and make it close. They did, after all, beat the Colts in a semi-meaningful home game last year.
- Chargers (-5.5) over PACKERS
The Packers are a real bandwagon pick this week for some reason. Maybe it's because the entire national media is on Brett Favre's nuts. The Pack are definitely better than people thought, their defense is legit, but the Chargers have been mediocre so far and I think they bust out of it big this week. I actually like them by a few touchdowns this week.
- CHIEFS (-2.5) over Vikings
Wow, what a mediocre game. Even though the Chiefs are probably a little more awful than th e Vikings, I'm gonna go with the crappy home team over the crappy road team if the line is under 3.
- Bills (+16.5) over PATRIOTS
Tough call, because the Pats should win this game easily. But my gut tells me that 16.5 is still too much, considering that the Pats have been huge home favorites against the Bills the last 2 years and have barely won both times. I think this is a surprisingly close game for a while before the Pats pull away.
- JETS (-3) over Dolphins
Another crapfest. I loved watching the Jets last year (especially Kerry Rhodes; he's a beast) and I don't think they're that bad this year. With Clemens playing, and with Cotchery emerging as a #1, their offense could be ok. I still think they'd be better off using Leon Washington a lot more than they do, which would allow Thomas Jones to get more time at his natural position: benchwarmer.
- STEELERS (-9.5) over 49ers
This is a lot of points, especially given that the Niners D has gotten a little better (but no Manny Lawson could hurt) and that things have been a little too easy for the Steelers so far. But their offense looks great this year, and the Niners aren't gonna score more than 10 or 13, so the Steelers by 10 or 14 looks entirely possible.
-Cardinals (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Ravens covering this hinges on them scoring more than 7 points. And since I think that's far from a certainty, I'll take the points.
- Rams (+4.5) over BUCS
The Bucs usually play well in these home games, but I think they shot their wad last week and Steven Jackson has to go off soon. Since I think the Rams are the better team, I'll take the points here.
- BRONCOS (-3) over Jags
These were supposed to be 2 of the better teams in the AFC this year, and they've both looked atrocious. The Broncos should be 0-2 if the Bills weren't inept and they hadn't gotten lucky with that timeout to ice Janikowski, who is probably the most sure bet in the league to actually get iced by that move, along with Jay Feely and Tony Romo. Then again, the Jags should also be 0-2 since beating the Falcons 13-7 at home qualifies as a loss in my book. I'll just take the home team here.
- Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS
The Bengals have to snap out of this right? Maybe not, since their defense blows, but I like them in a shootout here.
- RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Let down game for Cleveland, and this Oakland defense is much better than Cincy's. Plus, they'll committ to LaMont Jordan and run, unlike the Bengals, which will let the Raiders control this game.
- Panthers (+4) over FALCONS
How many awful games are there this week?
- REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants are bad. Really bad. The combo of a soft defense and Eli Manning spells about 4 wins this year. This won't be one of them.
- Cowboys (+3) over CHICAGO
It pains me to do this, but I think Dallas' offense is even better than people thought it would be, and I'm not sure the Bears have enough offense to take advantage of a weak Dallas D. Unless Devin Hester scores, I like Dallas to win outright.
-SAINTS (-4) over Titans
Monday night in the Dome should be a big advantage for the Saints. Then again, this is Vince Young's first prime-time NFL game, which you know means he'll go off. Not to mention the fact that Doug Pederson would go off against this Saints D. For some reason, though, I still the Saints put together a good game and win this one. The 4 points is the only thing that worries me.
- Lions (+6) over EAGLES
This line is absurd. Granted, the Lions haven't beaten anybody this year, but we ACTUALLY haven't beaten anybody. Right now, I don't think we're 6 points better than the Lions, unless Kitna craps the bed and all of our injured studs play. Our defense is old and slow, and just isn't very good anymore, and McNabb is clearly not even close to back yet.
- TEXANS (+6) over Colts
Despite not having seen them play, I like this team. Their defense in underrated (finished 5th in points allowed in '06) and even without Andre Johnson, I think they're good enough to hang in this game and make it close. They did, after all, beat the Colts in a semi-meaningful home game last year.
- Chargers (-5.5) over PACKERS
The Packers are a real bandwagon pick this week for some reason. Maybe it's because the entire national media is on Brett Favre's nuts. The Pack are definitely better than people thought, their defense is legit, but the Chargers have been mediocre so far and I think they bust out of it big this week. I actually like them by a few touchdowns this week.
- CHIEFS (-2.5) over Vikings
Wow, what a mediocre game. Even though the Chiefs are probably a little more awful than th e Vikings, I'm gonna go with the crappy home team over the crappy road team if the line is under 3.
- Bills (+16.5) over PATRIOTS
Tough call, because the Pats should win this game easily. But my gut tells me that 16.5 is still too much, considering that the Pats have been huge home favorites against the Bills the last 2 years and have barely won both times. I think this is a surprisingly close game for a while before the Pats pull away.
- JETS (-3) over Dolphins
Another crapfest. I loved watching the Jets last year (especially Kerry Rhodes; he's a beast) and I don't think they're that bad this year. With Clemens playing, and with Cotchery emerging as a #1, their offense could be ok. I still think they'd be better off using Leon Washington a lot more than they do, which would allow Thomas Jones to get more time at his natural position: benchwarmer.
- STEELERS (-9.5) over 49ers
This is a lot of points, especially given that the Niners D has gotten a little better (but no Manny Lawson could hurt) and that things have been a little too easy for the Steelers so far. But their offense looks great this year, and the Niners aren't gonna score more than 10 or 13, so the Steelers by 10 or 14 looks entirely possible.
-Cardinals (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Ravens covering this hinges on them scoring more than 7 points. And since I think that's far from a certainty, I'll take the points.
- Rams (+4.5) over BUCS
The Bucs usually play well in these home games, but I think they shot their wad last week and Steven Jackson has to go off soon. Since I think the Rams are the better team, I'll take the points here.
- BRONCOS (-3) over Jags
These were supposed to be 2 of the better teams in the AFC this year, and they've both looked atrocious. The Broncos should be 0-2 if the Bills weren't inept and they hadn't gotten lucky with that timeout to ice Janikowski, who is probably the most sure bet in the league to actually get iced by that move, along with Jay Feely and Tony Romo. Then again, the Jags should also be 0-2 since beating the Falcons 13-7 at home qualifies as a loss in my book. I'll just take the home team here.
- Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS
The Bengals have to snap out of this right? Maybe not, since their defense blows, but I like them in a shootout here.
- RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Let down game for Cleveland, and this Oakland defense is much better than Cincy's. Plus, they'll committ to LaMont Jordan and run, unlike the Bengals, which will let the Raiders control this game.
- Panthers (+4) over FALCONS
How many awful games are there this week?
- REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants are bad. Really bad. The combo of a soft defense and Eli Manning spells about 4 wins this year. This won't be one of them.
- Cowboys (+3) over CHICAGO
It pains me to do this, but I think Dallas' offense is even better than people thought it would be, and I'm not sure the Bears have enough offense to take advantage of a weak Dallas D. Unless Devin Hester scores, I like Dallas to win outright.
-SAINTS (-4) over Titans
Monday night in the Dome should be a big advantage for the Saints. Then again, this is Vince Young's first prime-time NFL game, which you know means he'll go off. Not to mention the fact that Doug Pederson would go off against this Saints D. For some reason, though, I still the Saints put together a good game and win this one. The 4 points is the only thing that worries me.
Friday, September 21, 2007
NFL picks, week 3
because I gamble?
Detroit (+6.5) over EAGLES
Our quest for 14-2 will begin with a 6 point victory?
Colts (-6) over TEXANS
When you lose your best player (Andre Johnson) and are playing a top-2 team in the league I’m not picking you.
San Diego (-5) over BRETT FARVE
The Pack have looked good so far, but they don’t even have a mediocre running back and we often forget that the AFC is WAY better than the NFC, this one isn’t going to be close.
MINNY (+2.5) over Kansas city
hey look, I’m ignoring my “always bet on the AFC” maxim I made just one (1) sentence ago! Needless to say I’m going to lose this one
Buffalo (+16.5) over THE CHEATERS
16 and a half? Dear god, no one should be able to cheat that well
STEELERS (-9) over 49ers
Pittsburgh has been demolishing bad teams and despite their 2-0 record the 9ers fit that bill.
TAMPA (-3.5) over DRex’s Rams
The Rams blow.
NYJ (-3) over Miami
Not sure where I read or heard this but recently I came across the realization that Miami has two players on their roster who give you a distinct advantage at their position – Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas – both of these guys were brought in by Jimmy Johnson, four full regimes ago. My takeaway from this isn’t just that Miami stinks, but also that if their 3-22 guys aren’t any good, that lack of scouting/player development probably runs through 23-52 as well. I’ll suffer the 3.
B-MORE (-8) over Arizona
I read that Baltimore has the best tailgating scene in THE WORLD! Also, Pro Football Talk mentioned this week that Larry Fitzgerald wants out of Zona because Wiesenhut’s offense doesn’t suit him. This isn’t important because he’s actually going to leave, or even because he’s disgruntled as a player, but rather because when a new coach manages to push away one of his star players a mere two weeks into his first stint as the head man, well, it makes you think that maybe Tomlin was the right hire after all.
Also, this game strikes me as relevant because of the STD factor. When driving through Baltimore we have a long-standing policy of rolling up the windows of whatever car we’re driving at the moment so not to catch the hiv (which one can only assume is airborne in that city). Now they’re bringing Mr. STD, Matt Leinhart himself in? Could get brutal.
Cincy (+3) over SEATTLE
AFC/NFC thing … plus I read that seattle has the worst tailgaiting in the league (same article), which makes me dislike their team and bet against them
SKINS (-3.5) over The New York Football Giants
Normally when a hard-nosed coach loses a team it becomes quickly obvious and they get rid of him. Tom Coughlin however lost the giants literally years ago (when he changed “5 minutes early is on time” to ”ten minutes early is on time” immediately following their 2005 playoff year where they exceeded all expectations and all you started hearing stories about how all the veterans hate him), drove away his best player (Tiki), and doesn’t even produce winning teams anymore, how he still has a job makes no sense.
That said, trap game, never bet within the NFC east.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Cleveland just shot their load, you can bet the house Oakland isn’t giving up 51 points.
Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver is two field goals away from 0-2, Jacksonville is going to be afraid of the Champ and Dre Bly (rightly so) and keep it on the ground, which plays to their talent (Taylor, Jones-Drew, and even Garrard). Jags win, and I’m taking the under (whatever it is).
Carolina (-4) over ATL
Julius Peppers may well personally start the Byron Leftwich era if Joey Harrington hangs onto the ball like he did last week, that young man is bad.
CHI (-3) over Cowboys
Chicago’s tampa two v. TO scares me because they play their corners L/R as opposed to matched up, but I believe that Romo is going to prove to be as shaky as Grossman before everything is said and done
Tennessee (-4.5) over NO
I know its crazy to bet against an 0-2 team playing their home opener in front of an amped up home crowd, but VY just does nothing but win, and I can’t get that fact out of my head.
Detroit (+6.5) over EAGLES
Our quest for 14-2 will begin with a 6 point victory?
Colts (-6) over TEXANS
When you lose your best player (Andre Johnson) and are playing a top-2 team in the league I’m not picking you.
San Diego (-5) over BRETT FARVE
The Pack have looked good so far, but they don’t even have a mediocre running back and we often forget that the AFC is WAY better than the NFC, this one isn’t going to be close.
MINNY (+2.5) over Kansas city
hey look, I’m ignoring my “always bet on the AFC” maxim I made just one (1) sentence ago! Needless to say I’m going to lose this one
Buffalo (+16.5) over THE CHEATERS
16 and a half? Dear god, no one should be able to cheat that well
STEELERS (-9) over 49ers
Pittsburgh has been demolishing bad teams and despite their 2-0 record the 9ers fit that bill.
TAMPA (-3.5) over DRex’s Rams
The Rams blow.
NYJ (-3) over Miami
Not sure where I read or heard this but recently I came across the realization that Miami has two players on their roster who give you a distinct advantage at their position – Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas – both of these guys were brought in by Jimmy Johnson, four full regimes ago. My takeaway from this isn’t just that Miami stinks, but also that if their 3-22 guys aren’t any good, that lack of scouting/player development probably runs through 23-52 as well. I’ll suffer the 3.
B-MORE (-8) over Arizona
I read that Baltimore has the best tailgating scene in THE WORLD! Also, Pro Football Talk mentioned this week that Larry Fitzgerald wants out of Zona because Wiesenhut’s offense doesn’t suit him. This isn’t important because he’s actually going to leave, or even because he’s disgruntled as a player, but rather because when a new coach manages to push away one of his star players a mere two weeks into his first stint as the head man, well, it makes you think that maybe Tomlin was the right hire after all.
Also, this game strikes me as relevant because of the STD factor. When driving through Baltimore we have a long-standing policy of rolling up the windows of whatever car we’re driving at the moment so not to catch the hiv (which one can only assume is airborne in that city). Now they’re bringing Mr. STD, Matt Leinhart himself in? Could get brutal.
Cincy (+3) over SEATTLE
AFC/NFC thing … plus I read that seattle has the worst tailgaiting in the league (same article), which makes me dislike their team and bet against them
SKINS (-3.5) over The New York Football Giants
Normally when a hard-nosed coach loses a team it becomes quickly obvious and they get rid of him. Tom Coughlin however lost the giants literally years ago (when he changed “5 minutes early is on time” to ”ten minutes early is on time” immediately following their 2005 playoff year where they exceeded all expectations and all you started hearing stories about how all the veterans hate him), drove away his best player (Tiki), and doesn’t even produce winning teams anymore, how he still has a job makes no sense.
That said, trap game, never bet within the NFC east.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Cleveland just shot their load, you can bet the house Oakland isn’t giving up 51 points.
Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver is two field goals away from 0-2, Jacksonville is going to be afraid of the Champ and Dre Bly (rightly so) and keep it on the ground, which plays to their talent (Taylor, Jones-Drew, and even Garrard). Jags win, and I’m taking the under (whatever it is).
Carolina (-4) over ATL
Julius Peppers may well personally start the Byron Leftwich era if Joey Harrington hangs onto the ball like he did last week, that young man is bad.
CHI (-3) over Cowboys
Chicago’s tampa two v. TO scares me because they play their corners L/R as opposed to matched up, but I believe that Romo is going to prove to be as shaky as Grossman before everything is said and done
Tennessee (-4.5) over NO
I know its crazy to bet against an 0-2 team playing their home opener in front of an amped up home crowd, but VY just does nothing but win, and I can’t get that fact out of my head.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
McNabb finally acting black : Philadelphia angry again
First off, I’m not sure if we can even really have an intelligent conversation about race and sports. My perspective is not one of a black quarterback, which would seemingly be the only perspective which could really be relevant here, and much of what at least I perceive the problem to be is rooted in a real gap in communication between Donovan, the press, the fans, and even some of the other players.
That said, in a narrow context what McNabb said was wrong. Quarterback is by far the most scrutinized position in sports. The axiom “the most popular man in town is the backup quarterback” is more or less a truism, and not because every backup is inherently whiter than the starter. When McNabb was behind Doug Pederson the entire stadium used to chant "McNoww." Rather, QB is the one position in team sports where there can be only one. If you have two stud running backs you can get them onto the field at the game time, or at very least manageably split carries – Ronnie Brown and Cadallac Williams were both top 5 picks coming out of Auburn. Same thing with point guards (Jason Terry and Devin Harris), power forwards (Sheed and Webber), center fielders (our very own Victorino and Rowand) and shortstops (the Yankees added the best shortstop in baseball, A-Rod, despite the fact that they had the second best, Jeter). Point being, in team sports that aren’t football, we can do this all day.
However, in football it does not work. A team cannot just slide one QB out to RB or WR and still be able to utilize their talents.
Further, the QB is more directly involved in football than any other single player in sports, save Pitchers, who usually rotate several per game.
Any two quarterbacks, (McNabb and Kolb work as a case study) can’t both play, which then puts the one who is playing under the microscope.
But while all quarterbacks are criticized in general, the manner in which they are talked about is different – probably far more different than a white sports fan can or does realize. What it seems that McNabb was trying is say is not that black quarterbacks are inherently under more scrutiny – rather that the scrutiny that they are under is very different. McNabb, who obviously is a student of a game, makes good reads and never throws INTs, being labeled as just an athlete can be seen as offensive – the assumption is that his victories have been god-given (what an athletic display!) and his losses have been the byproduct of inferior game-planning (the defense kept McNabb confused all day). He never gets shut down because he’s worse, or even played worse than the other team – rather, they were smarter. When someone says “he takes off when his first read isn’t open” it implies that he can’t wait and read the defense, not that he’s making a predetermined decision to exploit defensive tendencies.
So he’s probably right, we probably shouldn’t boo him, and if he says the questions he gets asked are unique to black QBs well, he should know and good for him for speaking honestly. I don’t really think he’s speaking to me – I don’t care how he wins – but if he is my bad. I’ll promise to stop criticizing when he promises to stop losing.
But still, what is scary to me as an Eagles fan is that McNabb’s clarification wasn’t accurate – he is called a ‘running quarterback’ where Young and Plummer never were – but it was personalized against Philadelphia fans. During MNF Kornheiser remarked that McNabb had said told him “if I get outside of the tackles and run I’ll probably get a standing ovation.” At the time it seemed like an odd comment – defensive against running because he didn’t want to appease the fans – now it seems like more of a judgment; he said 1. he finds it latently racist that people want to label him a running quarterback and 2. Philadelphia runs will boo him if he doesn’t run, i.e. ‘act black.’
Irregardless of what color his skin is, it does seem pretty thin, and once an athlete reveals that we get to him in this city, it opens the floodgates. Its like an alcoholic who despite how much they know their behavior is hurting themselves, they can’t turn a corner until they admit they have a problem. (warning, this metaphor works A LOT better if you believe alcoholism is good) Well, McNabb just admitted that we’re alcohol and now I think he’s going to start seeing all the ways where we’re hurting his life. Smart money says this is the beginning of the end.
That said, in a narrow context what McNabb said was wrong. Quarterback is by far the most scrutinized position in sports. The axiom “the most popular man in town is the backup quarterback” is more or less a truism, and not because every backup is inherently whiter than the starter. When McNabb was behind Doug Pederson the entire stadium used to chant "McNoww." Rather, QB is the one position in team sports where there can be only one. If you have two stud running backs you can get them onto the field at the game time, or at very least manageably split carries – Ronnie Brown and Cadallac Williams were both top 5 picks coming out of Auburn. Same thing with point guards (Jason Terry and Devin Harris), power forwards (Sheed and Webber), center fielders (our very own Victorino and Rowand) and shortstops (the Yankees added the best shortstop in baseball, A-Rod, despite the fact that they had the second best, Jeter). Point being, in team sports that aren’t football, we can do this all day.
However, in football it does not work. A team cannot just slide one QB out to RB or WR and still be able to utilize their talents.
Further, the QB is more directly involved in football than any other single player in sports, save Pitchers, who usually rotate several per game.
Any two quarterbacks, (McNabb and Kolb work as a case study) can’t both play, which then puts the one who is playing under the microscope.
But while all quarterbacks are criticized in general, the manner in which they are talked about is different – probably far more different than a white sports fan can or does realize. What it seems that McNabb was trying is say is not that black quarterbacks are inherently under more scrutiny – rather that the scrutiny that they are under is very different. McNabb, who obviously is a student of a game, makes good reads and never throws INTs, being labeled as just an athlete can be seen as offensive – the assumption is that his victories have been god-given (what an athletic display!) and his losses have been the byproduct of inferior game-planning (the defense kept McNabb confused all day). He never gets shut down because he’s worse, or even played worse than the other team – rather, they were smarter. When someone says “he takes off when his first read isn’t open” it implies that he can’t wait and read the defense, not that he’s making a predetermined decision to exploit defensive tendencies.
So he’s probably right, we probably shouldn’t boo him, and if he says the questions he gets asked are unique to black QBs well, he should know and good for him for speaking honestly. I don’t really think he’s speaking to me – I don’t care how he wins – but if he is my bad. I’ll promise to stop criticizing when he promises to stop losing.
But still, what is scary to me as an Eagles fan is that McNabb’s clarification wasn’t accurate – he is called a ‘running quarterback’ where Young and Plummer never were – but it was personalized against Philadelphia fans. During MNF Kornheiser remarked that McNabb had said told him “if I get outside of the tackles and run I’ll probably get a standing ovation.” At the time it seemed like an odd comment – defensive against running because he didn’t want to appease the fans – now it seems like more of a judgment; he said 1. he finds it latently racist that people want to label him a running quarterback and 2. Philadelphia runs will boo him if he doesn’t run, i.e. ‘act black.’
Irregardless of what color his skin is, it does seem pretty thin, and once an athlete reveals that we get to him in this city, it opens the floodgates. Its like an alcoholic who despite how much they know their behavior is hurting themselves, they can’t turn a corner until they admit they have a problem. (warning, this metaphor works A LOT better if you believe alcoholism is good) Well, McNabb just admitted that we’re alcohol and now I think he’s going to start seeing all the ways where we’re hurting his life. Smart money says this is the beginning of the end.
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