Vegas' week 3 picks

Because I got the nickname 'vegas' at school, i think it's fair game to use here. Here are my picks for week 3 (HOME team in caps):

- Lions (+6) over EAGLES
This line is absurd. Granted, the Lions haven't beaten anybody this year, but we ACTUALLY haven't beaten anybody. Right now, I don't think we're 6 points better than the Lions, unless Kitna craps the bed and all of our injured studs play. Our defense is old and slow, and just isn't very good anymore, and McNabb is clearly not even close to back yet.

- TEXANS (+6) over Colts
Despite not having seen them play, I like this team. Their defense in underrated (finished 5th in points allowed in '06) and even without Andre Johnson, I think they're good enough to hang in this game and make it close. They did, after all, beat the Colts in a semi-meaningful home game last year.

- Chargers (-5.5) over PACKERS
The Packers are a real bandwagon pick this week for some reason. Maybe it's because the entire national media is on Brett Favre's nuts. The Pack are definitely better than people thought, their defense is legit, but the Chargers have been mediocre so far and I think they bust out of it big this week. I actually like them by a few touchdowns this week.

- CHIEFS (-2.5) over Vikings
Wow, what a mediocre game. Even though the Chiefs are probably a little more awful than th e Vikings, I'm gonna go with the crappy home team over the crappy road team if the line is under 3.

- Bills (+16.5) over PATRIOTS
Tough call, because the Pats should win this game easily. But my gut tells me that 16.5 is still too much, considering that the Pats have been huge home favorites against the Bills the last 2 years and have barely won both times. I think this is a surprisingly close game for a while before the Pats pull away.

- JETS (-3) over Dolphins
Another crapfest. I loved watching the Jets last year (especially Kerry Rhodes; he's a beast) and I don't think they're that bad this year. With Clemens playing, and with Cotchery emerging as a #1, their offense could be ok. I still think they'd be better off using Leon Washington a lot more than they do, which would allow Thomas Jones to get more time at his natural position: benchwarmer.

- STEELERS (-9.5) over 49ers
This is a lot of points, especially given that the Niners D has gotten a little better (but no Manny Lawson could hurt) and that things have been a little too easy for the Steelers so far. But their offense looks great this year, and the Niners aren't gonna score more than 10 or 13, so the Steelers by 10 or 14 looks entirely possible.

-Cardinals (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Ravens covering this hinges on them scoring more than 7 points. And since I think that's far from a certainty, I'll take the points.

- Rams (+4.5) over BUCS
The Bucs usually play well in these home games, but I think they shot their wad last week and Steven Jackson has to go off soon. Since I think the Rams are the better team, I'll take the points here.

- BRONCOS (-3) over Jags
These were supposed to be 2 of the better teams in the AFC this year, and they've both looked atrocious. The Broncos should be 0-2 if the Bills weren't inept and they hadn't gotten lucky with that timeout to ice Janikowski, who is probably the most sure bet in the league to actually get iced by that move, along with Jay Feely and Tony Romo. Then again, the Jags should also be 0-2 since beating the Falcons 13-7 at home qualifies as a loss in my book. I'll just take the home team here.

- Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS
The Bengals have to snap out of this right? Maybe not, since their defense blows, but I like them in a shootout here.

- RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Let down game for Cleveland, and this Oakland defense is much better than Cincy's. Plus, they'll committ to LaMont Jordan and run, unlike the Bengals, which will let the Raiders control this game.

- Panthers (+4) over FALCONS
How many awful games are there this week?

- REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants are bad. Really bad. The combo of a soft defense and Eli Manning spells about 4 wins this year. This won't be one of them.

- Cowboys (+3) over CHICAGO
It pains me to do this, but I think Dallas' offense is even better than people thought it would be, and I'm not sure the Bears have enough offense to take advantage of a weak Dallas D. Unless Devin Hester scores, I like Dallas to win outright.

-SAINTS (-4) over Titans
Monday night in the Dome should be a big advantage for the Saints. Then again, this is Vince Young's first prime-time NFL game, which you know means he'll go off. Not to mention the fact that Doug Pederson would go off against this Saints D. For some reason, though, I still the Saints put together a good game and win this one. The 4 points is the only thing that worries me.