week 4 picks.

Sugar Shane Mosley! Say it ain’t so! Onto the picks …


BMore (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
Why I’m confident: Jamal Lewis said publicly that he has more gaps to run through in Cleveland than he ever had with the Ravens. Now I’m not Jamal Lewis, who for accounts is a pretty tough guy (see: Jail, 2000 yards), but if I was I wouldn’t want to upset God’s linebacker and his murderous teammates.

Why I’m hesitant: The ravens have been showing a tendency to let teams hang around, and they haven’t put together one complete game together.

MIAMI (-3.5) over Oak
Why I’m confident: Joey Porter guaranteed me that Miami would win, ts the Dante Culpepper bowl! Emotions will run high, Miami is making Oakland wear black, thinking that it ill fry them, Miami always plays better in the beginning of the year (knowing that this team may actually get worse is a terrifying thought).

Why I’m hesitant: Zach Thomas isn’t cleared medically yet (but expects to play), the weather is only supposed to be in the high-70s/low 80s, Oakland can still play D, which gives them one more competent unit than the Dolphins,

Bears (-3) at DETRIOT
Why I’m confident: I’ve been arguing this for years … Detroit was founded as a French city, its proper pronunciation is Dey-twa (like Chris Benoit’s last name), can we start a movement to fix this wrong while at the same time infuriating the entire city? I hope so. Also, Chicago is way better.

Why I’m hesitant: the Griese switch was overdue for reasons that every sportswriter in America echoed last year, but on a team with a secondary this bad it seems like the type of game Grossman would totally have gone off in. Intra-division game.

Houston (-3) at ATL
Why I’m confident: Matt Schaub bowl. Texans seem good, falcons seem bad.

Why I’m hesitant: I start with an anecdote. After DeAngelo Hall’s miserable performance last week (67 yards in penalties, sideline confrontation with his own coach) the team was strongly considering suspending him for a game (to which he said something along the lines of “I would welcome it”). Anyway, the hot rumor going around the league is that they opted to not publicly discipline him because his own team handled it behind closed doors. We’re not talking about a “players only meeting” in the typical sense though … rumor has it several veterans actually took Hall behind closed doors and literally kicked his ass. Seems like the type of amazing story that could right a ship.

Green Bay (-1.5) at MINNY
Why I’m confident: I hate how everyone keeps talking about how Farve has such a bad overall record at Minny (he does) but keeps on neglecting that he’s won 3 out of the last 4 four there, which seems equally relevant. Minnesota’s best quality is their ability to stop the run. The fact that the Packers never run (11 rushing attempts last Sunday!) would seem to nullify that advantage.

Why I’m hesitant: Farve does stink there, Minnesota can stop the run. Packers are the NFL’s youngest team (strange but true) and they’re playing in a rivalry game.

Jets (-3) at BUF
Why I’m confident: the Trent Edwards era is upon us, Buffalo is last in total offense AND last in totally defense.

Why I’m hesitant: I’ve picked the road team in 4 out of 5 games so far AND I’ve picked every favorite, neither of which is good signs (then again, neither is the Trent Edwards era, I’m pretty confident here)

St. Louis (+12.5) at FUCK THE COWBOYS
Why I’m confident: fuck the cowboys

Why I’m hesitant: Steven Jackson is out, three of their lineman are out, Bulger is has two cracked ribs but is still playing, Dallas has looked good and St. Louis awful.

CAROLINA (+2.5) over Tampa Bay
Why I’m confident: I just can’t keep picking every road team? Real-life Julius Peppers (hereinafter “RFJP”) doesn’t have a sack yet, but James’ Madden-team Julius Peppers (“JMTJP”) has like 17, which means RFJP is totally due.

Why I’m hesitant: I like Tampa and this line seems wrong. The Panthers are expected to wait until Sunday to announce their starting QB (note, this also doubles as a “why I’m confient” … when the decision is between Jake Delhomme and David Carr I just can’t imagine it being a huge distraction)

Seattle (-1) at SANFRAN
Why I’m confident: both of these teams seem like they should be 2-2, if Seattle wants the division a statement game would be nice.

Why I’m hesitant: Shaun Alexander spells his name stupidly and has a broken hand, SF swept them last week.

SD (-11.5) over Kansas City
Why I’m confident: KC got their big win last week, won’t see too many of them. Tomlinson gets on tract, Rivers can’t be this bad, and Gates continues his pace towards shattering the NFL single season receptions record. Once upon a time the Chargers were really, really good.

Why I’m hesitant: 11.5

ZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh
Why I’m confident: A coordinator always holds a big advantage against his team, and Ari has two of them (Grimm and their polarizing coach).

Why I’m hesitant: The two-headed monster that is Matt Leinhart and Kurt Warner going against a team that has looked legit through three weeks

INDY (-9.5) over Denver
Why I’m confident: Manning owns Denver.

Why I’m hesitant: Indy only beats teams by single digits these days.

Good Guys (-2.5) at NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS
Why I’m confident: Manning still stinks, they can’t play defense, they don’t have a running back, Kevin Curtis has established himself as the premier WR in all of football, Brian Westbrook could play for the Phillies he has so much talent and heart, their QB has never been scrutinized and therefore has not properly developed his game, it’s a prime time game and we love that, Plax is beat up.

Why I’m hesitant: this doesn’t make he hesitant but is a true story: Giants RB Derrick Ward is on pace to catch more passes this season than Tiki Barber ever did. That’s why early season is fun. Seriously though, if we drop this game we stink again. I’m not ready for that.

CINCY (+7) over New England
Why I’m confident: What the hell, I’ll be the one person in America who doesn’t take NE and suffer the points this week.

Why I’m hesitant: logic, common sense, cheating.